Tips for Saturday's Breeders' Cup races at Churchill Downs
Check out Man On The Spot's verdicts and selections for Saturday's Breeders' Cup action at Churchill Downs.
4.00 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Marley's Freedom has won all three starts since joining Bob Baffert in May, culminating in a Grade 1 success at Saratoga in August. She’s a deserving favourite on recent form but may be compromised by today’s high draw and is taken on with SELCOURT. The latter hasn’t raced since March when easily beating Marley's Freedom in a Grade 2 at Santa Anita but has gone well fresh before and John Sadler’s filly may well have improved in the interim. Golden Mischief steps up in trip having narrowly beaten the re-opposing Chalon over 6f at Keeneland and is a threat if lasting home while Skye Diamonds finished fourth in last year’s renewal ,ahead of Finley’sluckycharm, and arrives this year on the back of a Grade 3 success when beating Anonymity.
4.38 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
Despite this taking place on the Turf track, European raiders don’t have a great record and it remains to be seen if Lost Treasure and Havana Grey can get involved. The Ballydoyle colt finished ahead of Karl Burke’s charge when fifth in the Prix de l’Abbaye last month though the latter won the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh before that. The first four home in last year’s renewal are back for more and the winner Stormy Liberal has been in fine form subsequently. He beat runner-up Richard's Boy again at Del Mar in August while DISCO PARTNER and Bucchero, third and fourth in 2017, also arrive on the back of victories. The former was beaten less than a length last year, despite having to be switched for a clear run, and it could be the turn of Christophe Clement’s charge today having romped home at Belmont last month. Conquest Tsunami ran his stablemate Stormy Liberal close at Santa Anita last time while the progressive World Of Trouble takes on older sprinters today and is preferred to stable companion Rainbow Heir.
5.16 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Back to the main Dirt track for this with a strong ante-post favourite in Catalina Cruiser. But though unbeaten in four starts, he’s yet to meet opponents of this calibre and it may prove difficult taking up his usual prominent racing position from a wide draw. City Of Light is a dual Grade 1 winner over 7f but stays the mile and was disadvantaged by having to race wide when runner-up at Saratoga last time. SEEKING THE SOUL (NAP) is another winner at the highest level when successful over 1m1f here at this time last year. He also beat last year’s third Awesome Slew and Giant Expectations when landing a prep-race for this over track and trip in September and looks to have a leading chance on that form. Firenze Fire has won a couple of Grade 3 races this year and beat Seven Trumpets on both occasions but the rest are harder to recommend.
6.04 Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Wuheida won this for Charlie Appleby last year and Wild Illusion has strong claims having reversed earlier form with Magic Wand in the Ribblesdale at Ascot when landing the Prix de l’Opera over 1m2f at Longchamp last month. The latter’s stablemate Athena was also beaten by Wild Illusion in France but collateral form brings SISTERCHARLIE into the equation. She gave 5lb and a three length beating to Athena when winning the Grade 1 Beverly D at Arlington in August, her third victory at the highest level this year, and trainer Chad Brown has won this contest three times in the last six years. Fourstar Crook and A Raving Beauty are also Grade 1 winners for Chad Brown of his five runners while Dermot Weld’s filly Eziyra is progressing nicely with a Group 2 victory at the Curragh in September and is preferred to compatriot Princess Yaiza.
6.46 Twinspires Breeders' Cup Sprint
Most of these are old foes and Roy H beat Imperial Hint a length to win last year’s renewal. Both arrive on the back of victories in Grade 1 sprints and have obvious claims while three-year-olds have a good recent record in this and Promises Fulfilled goes from strength to strength having beaten older horses, including Whitmore and LIMOUSINE LIBERAL, in a Grade 2 sprint at Keeneland last month. The latter has been beaten in this contest in the past but not at Churchill Downs where he excels and considering he looked an unlucky third at Keeneland when failing to get a clear run, a chance is taken on Ben Colebrook’s charge coming good when it matters. Distinctive B, Warrior's Club and Always Sunshine have plenty to find with the principals while B Squared looks up against it at this level.
7.36 Breeders' Cup Mile
Freddie Head trained the brilliant Goldikova to win this contest three times and runs Polydream, who ran into trouble at Longchamp behind surprise 33/1 winner One Master last time, but won a Group 1 race before that. EXPERT EYE also failed to get the best of runs at Longchamp in September but still finished third in the Prix du Moulin ahead of Lightning Spear. Frankie Dettori rode him to victory in the Group 3 Sky Bet City Of York over 7f before that and Sir Michael Stoute’s colt is fancied to make a bold bid over today’s tight mile. One Master also beat Gustav Klimt in France but Ryan Moore sticks with the latter rather than stablemates I Can Fly and Happily, who both went close in Group 1 contests last time, while Mustashry looks his yard’s second string behind the selection. Oscar Performance makes most appeal for the home team having won the Woodbine Mile in September while Next Shares beat Analyze It in a Grade 1 at Keeneland and is also preferred to Catapult.
8.16 Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff
Abel Tasman just missed out in last year’s renewal with Mopotism back in fifth. But the former ran below par behind stablemate Vale Dori in a Grade 1 at Santa Anita last time. Monomoy Girl looked to have landed her fifth consecutive Grade 1 contest at Parx but was disqualified for hampering Midnight Bisou and the latter awarded the race. Brad Cox’ filly looks a leading contender if keeping a straight line today and is preferred to another Grade 1 winner in Blue Prize. But WOW CAT was a prolific winner at the highest level in Chile before joining Chad Brown’s powerful yard. She landed her first Grade 1 in North America when successful over today’s trip at Belmont last month and it would be no surprise to see her take another step forward today.
8.56 Longines Breeders' Cup Turf
The last Turf race on the card with the exceptional ENABLE hard to oppose. She was having only her second start of the year when winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for the second time last month and John Gosden’s filly is taken to make history today by becoming the first Arc winner to follow up in this. Last year’s winner Talismanic was well beaten by the selection at Longchamp and was second to stablemate Waldgeist before that. The latter could only manage fourth in the Arc though still finished in front of the Ballydoyle duo Magical and Hunting Horn and could prove the main threat to the likely favourite. Glorious Empire beat Channel Maker to land a Grade 1 at Saratoga but the latter was back to his best at Belmont last time with Arlington Million winner Robert Bruce well beaten in second.
9.44 Breeders' Cup Classic
A notoriously difficult race for European horses to win but three take their chance. Roaring Lion is the best of them on Turf but his Group 1 winning streak may well come to end on this surface despite having won the QE11 at Ascot a fortnight ago. Ballydoyle’s Mendelssohn and the Godolphin colt Thunder Snow have form on Dirt having filled the places behind Discreet Lover at Belmont last time but the latter finished well behind runner-up Mind Your Biscuits at Saratoga before that. Catholic Boy also beat Mendelssohn at the latter track in August and though Bob Baffert’s winning run in this contest came to end last year, he runs recent Grade 1 winners Mckinzie and West Coast today, though the latter could only manage third in the 2017 renewal with Gunnevera further behind. Accelerate inched through the field after a slow start at Santa Anita to win his third Grade 1 race in succession. Similar tactics may have to be employed today given a high draw but a chance is taken on YOSHIDA. The latter ran well in the Queen Anne at Ascot during the summer and returned to the Dirt in September to land a Grade 1 over 1m1f at Saratoga. Not one to tilt at windmills, Bill Mott considers his colt can run a big race today and he gets the vote.
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