21:44 Churchill Downs

Saturday 3 November 2018

All14:4515:1516:0016:3817:1618:0418:4619:3620:1620:5621:4422:22

Race 11 - Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1)

Off time: 21:48 | Winning time: -

(1)

Thunder Snow³⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: C Soumillon| T: S bin Suroor| OR: 121| D

12/1

Dubai World Cup winner who bounced back from a poor turf run with an excellent second in a Belmont Park Grade 1 last time. Pulled up after a furlong here in the Kentucky Derby last year but that was an isolated incident and not one to underestimate.

Form: 212182

(2)

Roaring Lion¹⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 8-10| J: Oisin Murphy| T: J & T Gosden| OR: 127| D

8/1

Has enjoyed a remarkable season in Europe, placed in the Epsom Derby prior to four consecutive Group 1 wins. This is his career finale but there's very little hope he will go on dirt given his pedigree and he had a hard enough race two weeks ago.

Form: 131111

(3)

Catholic Boy⁷⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 8-10| J: Javier Castellano| T: Jonathan Thomas| OR: 115| D

6/1

Improving with every run and followed up a Grade 1 turf success with an impressive win in the Travers last time out, beating Mendelssohn by 4L. Yet to run at this track but he's hard to pick holes in and he's leading player if he improves again.

Form: 1-24111

(4)

Gunnevera⁶³

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: Irad Ortiz Jr| T: Antonio Sano| OR: 111| BF

28/1

Produced a respectable fifth in this race last year but well beaten in the Dubai World Cup in March and he was beaten 2L by Yoshida in a Saratoga Grade 1 last time. Others hold stronger claims.

Form: 25-3812

(5)

Lone Sailor³⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 8-10| J: James Graham| T: Thomas Amoss| OR: 108

100/1

Steadily improving and won a Grade 3 at Remington Park last time out. This represents a huge step up in class though and his previous runs here have been sub-par.

Form: 852321

(6)

Mckinzie⁴²

Age: 3| Weight: 8-10| J: Mike Smith| T: Bob Baffert| OR: 123

7/2

First past the post on all five starts, though disqualified and placed second in a Santa Anita Grade 2 in March. Didn't look straightforward when winning a Grade 1 at Parx last time and won't get away with not putting it all in against these rivals.

Form: 12-111

(7)

West Coast³⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: John Velazquez| T: Bob Baffert| OR: 125| D

11/2

Third in this race last year and has held his form well in three starts in 2018, without managing to win (2¼L runner-up to Accelerate last time). Yard's runners clearly warrant respect in this but he looks a little vulnerable for win purposes.

Form: 113-222

(8)

Pavel⁷⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: Mario Gutierrez| T: Doug O'Neill| OR: 115

50/1

Won a 1m1f Grade 1 here but he was well beaten by Accelerate when last seen. Needs a big step forward to play a part in what is a much deeper race here.

Form: 4-44412

(9)

Mendelssohn³⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-10| J: R L Moore| T: A P O'Brien| OR: 99| D

9/1

Very impressive when bolting up in the UAE Derby in March and had excuses in the Kentucky Derby. While no match for Catholic Boy two starts back, his latest effort was encouraging when a good third (set an unsustainable pace); intriguing runner.

Form: 110323

(10)

Yoshida⁶³

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: Jose Ortiz| T: William Mott| OR: 115

14/1

1m1f winner here on turf back in May and bounced back from two below par efforts with a Grade 1 success at Saratoga last time on dirt debut. This is tougher but quite possibly more to come on this surface.

Form: 21-1551

(11)

Mind Your Biscuits³⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 9-0| J: Tyler Gaffalione| T: Chad Summers| OR: 124

16/1

Won the Group 1 Golden Shaheen over 6f back in March and aquitted himself well at the highest level back up in trip on his next two outings. Took advantage of a drop in class here last time (1m1f) but he will need more against these rivals.

Form: 2-21221

(12)

Axelrod⁴²

Age: 3| Weight: 8-10| J: Joe Bravo| T: Michael McCarthy| OR: 112

50/1

Won a pair of Grade 3 races before a respectable second when upped in class behind Mckinzie at Parx last time. Less exposed than most but this is a tough ask, particularly from this draw.

Form: 342112

(13)

Discreet Lover³⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 9-0| J: Manuel Franco| T: Uriah St Lewis| OR: 111| D

50/1

Stayed on best off a mightily strong pace when just getting the better of Thunder Snow in a Grade 1 at Belmont last time out. His prior form suggests he may have been flattered by that run and a wide draw no help for him here.

Form: 443301

(14)

Accelerate³⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 9-0| J: Joel Rosario| T: John Sadler| OR: 128| D

9/2

Arrives bidding for a fourth consecutive Grade 1 success, staying on in game fashion at Santa Anita last time out to get the better of West Coast. A wide draw is what had him beat in his only defeat in 2018 and that has to be a concern again here.

Form: 112111

Non-Runners

(15)

Collected⁴²

Weight: 9-0| Age: 5

T: Bob Baffert J: Non Runner

(16)

Toast Of New York³⁵

Weight: 9-0| Age: 7

T: J A Osborne J: Non Runner

Forecasts

Mckinzie (7/2), Accelerate (9/2), West Coast (11/2), Catholic Boy (6/1), Roaring Lion (8/1), Mendelssohn (9/1), Thunder Snow (12/1), Yoshida (14/1), Mind Your Biscuits (16/1), Gunnevera (28/1), Collected (33/1), Toast Of New York (33/1), Pavel (50/1), Axelrod (50/1), Discreet Lover (50/1), Lone Sailor (100/1)

Bob Baffert has won three of the last four renewals of this race and the consistent West Coast has proven himself at this level and has solid each-way claims. However, the unexposed Jonathan Thomas trained CATHOLIC BOY is preferred after his four length success over Mendelssohn in the Travers Stakes last time. He gives the impression he is still improving with every run and three year olds have a good recent record in this. Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow look the best of the European challenge and the former is preferred for the places after a fine effort in defeat last time out.