Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis of the Newmarket July Festival

I’ve written before about some of the history around which to context Newmarket’s July meeting. The July Stakes, for example, is the oldest regularly-run race for two-year-olds at the track, first instituted in 1786 with conditions that initially included the proviso that those by Eclipse and Highflyer were to carry 3lb extra given the their progeny were thought to be so much better than by other stallions (an idea whose current variant (Sales price) now dictates the weights carried in the tediously high number of five and six-furlong sales races that seem to be run every other week and whose introduction has surely contributed not only to the ongoing decline of the July Stakes but to the wider and older sprinting talent pool too).

Okay the weather was hot and underfoot conditions were fast, but the latest July Stakes attracted a pitiful three runners, the smallest field since Libranno beat the Godolphin trained Neebras and three other rivals in 2010 and the only one under five this century.

Godolphin provided the winner this time around in the shape of Inner City Blues who accounted for the Coventry runner-up Adaay Of Scarlet by more than twice the margin that Great Barrier Reef had beaten him by at Ascot and with more in hand than the winning margin suggests too having made his effort from furthest back of the trio in a race that was completed in an ordinary relative time (timefigure was 99, 8lb below his form rating).

Exactly how much his effort could be upgraded isn’t clear annoyingly as his sectional timing readings went missing, but Adaay Of Scarlett got 10lb across the last three furlongs, so making his own overall timerating 105, 1lb above the 104 he ran in the Coventry, and Inner City Blues would surely have got a chunk more. Inner City Blues promises to be at least as effective at seven furlongs, comments which don’t apply to the two behind him.

In contrast the other historical two-year-old feature, the Cherry Hinton, or the Duchess Of Cambridge as it is known nowadays, looked a far more interesting renewal ahead of the race, pitching together as it did the Albany winner Libertango and the Queen Mary runner-up Senorita Bonita.

In the event a pace that was somewhat ordinary early on, causing most of the field to race keenly, led to a sprint finish, one that might have been expected to favour Libertango given the turn of foot she showed to win the Albany from what looked an impossible position but turned out to suit Senorita Bonita who had the better change of speed in her locker.

Senorita Bonita earned marginally the bigger upgrade of the pair but the interesting one going forward is third-placed Alwaysanangel who did quite a bit better on that metric as she posted the fastest final sectional of all and only ran the one that preceded it 0.02 seconds slower than Libertango. In contrast to the July Stakes, the winner promises to be best around six furlongs for now (and the runner-up too) but Alwayanangel looks as if seven and a mile will be more her trip, will surely be another Group winner soon for Joseph O’Brien and might even be as good as Victorious who beat Senorita Bonita handsomely in the Queen Mary.

The July meeting has always seemed to me the point of the season that starts to define the possible shape of juvenile races over longer trips later in the season and two races at the fixture, the Superlative Stakes and the Rossdales British EBF maiden over the same seven-furlong trip on the final day, have been particularly predictive in recent years.

The Boodles Superlative Stakes was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2006 and in the last five years has recently been won by Classic winners City of Troy and Native Trail. City Of Troy was Aidan O’Brien’s third winner of the race and easily his most impressive and he saddled the odds-on favourite this year in the shape of Abraham Lincoln who had created a very favourable impression when winning at the Curragh last month.

Abraham Lincoln looked the likely winner for most of the contest this year, hitting a low of 1.05 in running, but he was denied on the line in a smart 106 timefigure by the more experienced Al Hudaiba who was best known until now for swerving and unseating Tom Marquand at Yarmouth when set to follow up his debut win at Newmarket.

He looked wayward again here, hanging badly right, and it’s hard not to believe Abraham Lincoln, who looked green as grass here and has a mighty frame, is the better long-term prospect.

The horse Abraham Lincoln beat at the Curragh, Haffner, was O’Brien’s representative in the aforementioned maiden, a race in which last year the trainer ran Constitution River (who was beaten by 2000 Guineas third Distant Storm) and the previous year Mount Kilimanjao and which has been won in previous years by Field Of Gold and Epictetus.

Haffner had a bit in hand but the timefigure was ordinary, just 65, and a 16lb upgrade (19lb in the final furlong) doesn’t take his overall timerating above the 90 performance rating he was awarded.

The other two juvenile contests at the meeting were won by Scommessa Sicura and Acting Lady in timefigures of 84 and 49 respectively; neither got an upgrade worth mentioning and the latter looked fortunate fourth-placed Sorrengail began her finishing effort from such a poor position.

The July Stakes, run as it always has been on the first day of the July meeting, was the second race on a card that began with the Bahrain Trophy over the rarely-raced distance of 13 furlongs.

The race was won by subsequent St Leger and Gold Cup winner Scandinavia last season and by the Great Voltigeur and Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Yibir in 2021 and it’s likely the duo who fought out the finish this year, Point Of Law and Galiyan, will have their campaigns mapped towards Doncaster with the former a better prospect for that race than the latter having been beaten him twice in succession now having on top of which he reversed form with Del Maro who’d beaten him at Ascot albeit looking not as well suited by the more tactical affair here.

That said a 67 winning timefigure and a 22lb upgrade isn’t a persuasive combination just yet and the Leger will be a 14lb or so harder to win than this. Jazl made the best of a return to six furlongs in the feature sprint handicap, returning a career-best 108, but pride of place from a timefigure perspective on the day went to Rebel’s Romance who defied an unusually long absence for him to get the better of his pacemaker Arabian Crown in a stable one-two in the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes.

108 for the runner-up is marginally higher than he has run before; Rebel's Romance has run faster too if not by much, but so many of his wins and best performances have been abroad that he’s hard to pin down accurately on the clock. Shayem improved to win the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes so following in the footsteps of the likes of Baaeed and Opera Ballo but the time was slow and the winning upgrade (23lb) wasn’t enough to make it a significant recent running.

Blue Bolt produces career-best to win Falmouth

Most of the timefigures recorded on the second day were fairly ordinary with one exception – the 118 recorded by Blue Bolt in a two-length win over Irish 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner Precise who herself posted 111. That’s a career best for the winner who is unbeaten this season and posted her best previous figure, 114, in the Sun Chariot last year; it’s also a career best for the runner-up whose previous best 108 came at the same Royal meeting at which Blue Bolt had won the Duke Of Cambridge.

Looking at the size of her it’s no surprise that Blue Point has got better with age, much as her sire Blue Point did, and she’d be something to contend with if allowed to stay in training another year with another two furlongs likely well within reach. Third-place Balantina ran a career best too, but both Evolutionist and Venetian Lace let down further the 1000 Guineas form, as did True Love later in the week at Deauville.

Saturday’s highlight was one of the ‘sprint classics, the Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup, and in another demonstration that the leading sprinters not only here but worldwide (with the exception of Ka Ying Rising) are much of a muchness, Comanche Brave bounced back from his slightly underwhelming Queen Elizabeth Jubilee seventh-placed effort to reverse form with the winner then Almeraq and runner-up Satono Reve and score by a length in a 110 timefigure, 8lb below the 118 he posted when scoring a breakthrough at Group level at six furlongs in the Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh in May.

There didn’t seem to be any obvious excuses for any of his rivals, though runner-up Venetian Sun has lost the aura of invincibility she earned on softer ground and probably needs those conditions, while the proximity of fourth-placed Coppull who appeared to improve to the tune of 6lb or so suggests this form possibly isn’t the most solid as the timefigure with zero sectional upgrade suggests.

Away from Newmarket, there wee a couple of decent figures posted at York, firstly by Coppull’s stablemate Redorange (109) in the John Smith's City Walls Stakes and secondly by Flora Of Bermuda (105) in the William Hill Summer Stakes.

The former was gaining his first win at Listed level after a couple of placed in-frame efforts, notably at Deauville last summer, and ended up posting a figure 4lb higher than he had done previously, but Flora Of Bermuda has run a fair bit faster and made swift amends down in grade after getting upset in the stalls when last in the Queen Elizabeth Jubilee at Ascot, winning the race for the second time.

The highest winning timefigure at York over the two days, incidentally, came in one of the handicaps, The Lost King another who didn’t get the rub of the green at Ascot (in the Buckingham Palace) adding to his win in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton in March with a career-best 110 timefigure stepped back up to a more suitable trip.

Ascot’s Juddmonte Summer Mile turned into something of a tactical affair and played into the hands of the front-running Zeus Olympios, who found plenty as should have been expected given his winning timefigure was just 90.

Fourth-placed More Thunder, second in the Queen Anne, had also had the winner behind him in the Lockinge but he’s a horse who takes time to find top stride and an ordinarily-run affair racing around a bend for the first time caught him out again as it had in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp last autumn, emerging the clear best in the race by 6lb after sectional upgrades are added to the timefigures.

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