Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis for the Dante Meeting at York

‘As I came off the stand (after the 2000 Guineas) I could not help thinking that Dante had been unlucky to lose. Of course, whenever the loser is travelling faster than the winner in a close finish there is always a temptation to regard him as unlucky, but I could not understand how Nevett had allowed Court Martial to poach such a decisive lead’.

Later in the essay in ‘Best Horses of 1945’ on Dante, the last Derby winner to be trained in the North of England, and after whom the Classic trials meeting and season-opener at York is widely known, Phil Bull wrote ‘However, it is usually the case on these occasions when one feels critical of a jockey that there are circumstances present in the course of a race which are not evident’.

Dante certainly had a rough build-up to the Guineas, injuring his left eye in the days before the race, leaving him unable to see any other horse from a terrible draw on the extreme right hand side of the field, and then having his challenge delayed too long after his rider anticipated the horse he was following would do something he then didn’t.

Bull trusted his eyes and backed Dante heavily for the Derby afterwards and was rewarded at odds of 10/1.

Visual analysis is still important, of course, but nowadays, sectional times, and to a lesser extent stride data, can be used to reorder precisely results where things might or should have panned out differently.

The former approach, even in the updated format Timeform is adopting, still has some limitations given it can’t properly reflect momentum or ground loss, disadvantageous track position or races where the leader is given far too much rope, while the latter method while promising, remains something of a curate’s egg.

Anyway, onto the Dante, first established in 1958, won by 11 Derby winners since and in which there was no need to rethink the result. Item was clearly the best horse on the day.

So far as Timeform performance ratings are concerned, Item is best described as ‘middling’ in the hierarchy of winners since 2000 and arguably merits a bit less respect on time. His 117 performance rating is the same as was achieved by subsequent Derby third Carlton House and Derby sixth Bonfire (though they were rated a fair bit higher than that initially) as well as French Derby winner The Grey Gatsby (who was rated lower) but a fair way below the cream of Dante winners such as Golden Horn (124) and Authorized (123), while a 107 timefigure is down at the bottom end of Dante-winning figures even if it is boosted by a 3lb upgrade so coming in at 110.

Delving deeper, the tracking data showed that Item ran every one of the final four furlongs faster than his rivals and each of the last three increasingly faster; his weighted stride length at the end of the end of the Dante (measured over the last three furlongs with more weight given to the final furlong than the previous two, the penultimate also weighted higher than the one before) was the second largest among all the winners at the meeting in well-run races (defined as those whose timefigure is within 10lb of their form rating) behind only Warrant Holder who won the older horse handicap off a mark of 100 on the final day; while his stride length ‘decay’ or the amount by which his stride length shortened as the race went on barely changed at all unlike most of the other well-run winners whose figures unsurprisingly fell away.

Half-brothers by Kingman won at seven furlongs and a mile but Item is by Frankel, relaxes well and ought to have little trouble staying a mile-and-a half.

All the same, it’s possible he and second-placed Action were at an advantage towards the far side of the track, and all things considered he looks a bit too short in the Derby betting to me at 5/1 with the septet behind him finishing quite bunched up despite a couple having raced freely.

Action is also by Frankel but seems to me unlikely to relish an extra two furlongs; third-placed Christmas Day, the best of those who raced stand side, saw his ace out strongly and I fancy would reverse the form with the runner-up comfortably if not the winner over a mile-and-a-half.

Tattersalls Musidora winner Legacy Link is also 5/1 for the Oaks and that strikes me as too short too.

An Oaks ‘stand in’ for I’m The One who has been ruled ‘not ready’ for the fourth Classic by the Gosdens, Legacy Link (by Dubawi out of a sister to Frankel) had been the subject of gushing gallops reports from the Newmarket gallops that saw her sent off as the 6/4 favourite, but she had to dig deep to see off the unbeaten Felicitas having been headed at one point.

The Gosdens have had a glut of Musidora winners over the years with The Fugue, So Mi Dar, Soul Sister and Emily Upjohn the best of them, but even then only one of that quartet went on to win at Epsom, and in a very poor year too, for all Emily Upjohn probably ought to have won.

Legacy Link’s current Timeform performance rating is 110, average so far as Musidora winners go, and much like Item her timefigure is slightly less flattering too, coming in at 102 with no sectional upgrade of any significance.

Unlike Item, however, tracking data shows that she ran only two of the last four furlongs fastest of all, losing a length on Felicitas between the two-furlong marker and the furlong pole, and didn’t even run the final furlong as fast as the short-striding third-placed K Sarra who was never nearer than at the finish but at least maintain her stride turnover to the line.

It was interesting to hear that John Gosden’s first reaction was not Epsom for his round-actioned filly but the Prix de Diane, while Felicitas’ rider Kieran Shoemark reportedly said his filly wouldn’t stay any further. Looking at how Legacy Link’s stride data fell through the floor late on, mindful it was her reappearance, for all visually it looked like she rallied it might be that in a well-run race a mile-and-a-quarter will be her optimum trip.

As for the rest of York, the Go Local Stores Minster Stakes (formerly the Duke of York) on the opening day went to Elmonjed in a clear career best 109 timefigure. He was winning his fourth race in succession at the track having landed a handicap off 97 last July and the listed Garrowby Stakes last September, though the race proved tough for those drawn high and both he and runner-up Kind Of Blue came from the two lowest stalls.

The Middleton over the Dante distance on the same afternoon was little more than a glorified sprint and its winner See The Fire returned the second slowest winning timefigure this century in a Group race at York, a very lowly 18, oddly enough second only to another race that featured just four runners over the same trip in 2024, the Sky Bet Stakes won by Alflaila.

Elmonjed’s trainer William Haggas has a nice filly on his hands in the shape of Lilt by the looks of things who won the Sky Bet Fillies’ Stakes (formerly the Michael Seely) in a 94 timefigure with easily the biggest sectional upgrade of all after coming from off the pace with the a long stride and seems sure to be even better at a mile-and-a quarter.

The Design Tonic Out Of This World Spaces At The Races EBF Marygate Stakes was run at a furious pace and whether its 9/1 winner Love A Giggle (held up well off the pace, produced late, timefigure just 80) can confirm the form with the fifth-placed front-running 3/1 shot Princess d’Orange another day has to be open to question, but the Boodles Yorkshire Cup result looked a fair one despite the gallop not being end to end with Rahiebb beating Al Nayyir in an admittedly ordinary 106.

Binhareer (106 timefigure) caught my eye in the six-furlong handicap on the opening day in a race that was run just 0.03 seconds slower than the Group Two Minster which is a sign the form is not far off pattern standard.

Binhareer finished fastest of all, running the last furlong in his race in 12.58 seconds, 0.17 seconds or a length faster than the next fastest while also running it 0.41 seconds faster than Elmonjed who was the only one in the Minster to dip below 13 seconds.

Given it was his seasonal reappearance and he also shaped easily the best faced with a similar scenario away from the main action in the unfavoured group in the Silver Cup at Ayr last year, I’m looking at a sprinter already good enough to win a Group Two let alone a Group Three for all he might still be aimed at the Wokingham off his new mark of 104.

What did Notable Speech achieve in the Lockinge?

Onto Newbury where the BOYLE Sports Lockinge was a very competitive if not vintage renewal and the result went pretty much to script with three of the leading four horses in Timeform’s pre-race ratings filling the podium after the rank outsider Mississippi River had taken the field along at a good pace tracked closely by his stablemate The Lion In Winter whose eventual response in first-time cheekpieces was a bit underwhelming.

Unsurprisingly former 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech had too much class and speed for one-time handicapper More Thunder, who is still improving by the looks of things, and Zeus Olympios, all three running career best timefigures with the first and second coming out of it with a 2lb upgrade as well.

Newbury was also chosen Albert Einstein’s first port of call in his reinvention as a sprinter after coming up short in the Gladness and the Greenham. He shaped well, beating the rest that raced on his part of the track convincingly, but couldn’t quite match Song Of The Clyde in the final furlong.

The race wasn’t strongly run, the winning timefigure just 97, and the manner in which he kept on suggested to me he’ll fare much better given a stronger gallop to chase, whether that be at five furlongs or six.

Kalpana won the Aston Park Stakes in a very smart career-best 121 timefigure from West Wind Blows who was much happier here than he had been on very soft ground at Longchamp the time before when finishing legless behind Best Secret, while Esna won the Listed Childwickbury Stud ‘Oaks Trial’ in a lowly 89, nowhere near good enough for Epsom.

Sunday’s card at Naas produced a couple of good figures, none more so perhaps than the 97 recorded by two-year-old Victorious in the Group 3 sprint that is usually a good pointer to the Albany. She and runner-up Controlla (who raced on what looked the favoured pat of the track) finished six lengths clear and Victorious already looks the one to beat at Ascot in a race the stable won with Fairy Godmother in 2024 and Meditate in 2022 both having taken this contest along the way.

More Watch And Learn columns

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• I'm The One doesn't impress on the clock

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