Timefigure analysis on recent Classic trials for Epsom at Chester, Lingfield and Leopardstown

Horse Racing

Tue May 12, 2026 · 2d ago

Timeform's Graeme North analyses all the recent action from a timefigure perspective.

It’s hard to believe given its popularity these days but barely 60 years ago Chester racecourse was on the verge of closure after the River Dee flooded and washed out the whole of the 1969 May meeting; only its prior acquisition of July and September fixtures from closed Manchester racecourse allowed it to survive.

‘No racecourse in the world could have a more historic setting,’ wrote R.M Bevan in his book ‘The Roodee’ though having visited Rothbury recently, another course which like Chester then had only one meeting per year but couldn’t overcome financial losses incurred by flooding from the River Coquet in both 1962 and 1963 before closing in 1964, the Northumberland venue certainly has the more scenic backdrop.

Apparently, Rothbury (now a golf course) was a notoriously difficult track to ride with sharp turns and savage undulations and local jockey Stan Heyhurt, who won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1958, reportedly called it ‘desperate, seriously desperate’.

Chester’s latest meeting was the source of much discontent among riders and trainers too with Tom Marquand refusing to ride in the second race on the second day, believing the track to be too dangerous after several horses had slipped in the opening contest on ground that was considerably faster than the official going description was letting on.

Underfoot conditions didn’t deter Aidan O’Brien from exerting his usual stranglehold on the meeting’s pattern races, however, and he ran a colt, Constitution River, who looks as exciting as any three-year-old seen in May there for many a year.

The meeting had begun as it traditionally does with the race named in honour of the reportedly ‘light-fleshed, lop-eared and miserable individual’ Lily Agnes who won 21 races including the Ebor and later became the dam of another famous horse whose name lives on at Chester, Ormonde.

The Lily Agnes is a somewhat insignificant race in the wider two-year-old calendar nowadays, but its latest winner Adonius looks head and shoulders above most recent ones, scoring in a 97 timefigure.

One of the only two winners this century to have exceeded that figure, Romantic Myth, went on to win the Queen Mary, so he should be thereabouts in the Norfolk given he looks an out-and-out five-furlong performer.

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Aidan O’Brien has never had a runner in the Lily Agnes so far as I can tell but he’s had 21 in the Cheshire Oaks this century and 33 in the Chester Vase and he took the former contest for the 10th time since 2008 with Amelia Earhart and the latter for the 12th time since 2007 with Benvenuto Cellini, races he won last year with Oaks winner Minnie Hauk and Derby winner Lambourn.

The Cheshire Oaks was a steadily-run affair and Amelia Earhart recorded the lowest timefigure of all O’Brien’s winners – just 67. Sectional upgrades show that she deserves a bit more credit across each of the last three furlongs than the horse she beat into second place, I’m The One, whose Newbury debut win last month had seen her storm to the head of the betting for the Oaks, but sectionals don’t incorporate ground or momentum lost and while the more experienced Amelia Earhart scraped the paint on the rail I’m The One went very wide on the home bend and wasn’t given a hard time once Amelia Earhart had the race won inside the last.

Benvenuto Cellini’s Chester Vase was a much stronger-run affair resulting in a four-and-a-quarter length win in a 109 timefigure, 15lb higher than Lambourn managed last year. On rattlingly quick ground, Benvenuto Cellini looked a different model to the one that got stuck in the mud in the Futurity last year, very strong at the finish and worth another 3lb on top of the result from a sectional perspective.

Interestingly, his data showed he won the race with a very long stride, by some way the lengthiest of all among the listed or pattern winners at the meeting if using the longest three of any in the final 10 furlongs, (I’m The One posted the most impressive figures by some way in the Cheshire Oaks using that metric). Ahead of the Dante and other trials in the coming week or two, his claims are easily the best among those already proven at a mile and a half.

Benvenuto Cellini and Amelia Earhart

The 12 wins in the Vase might be going some but O’Brien’s record in the Dee Stakes is somehow even more impressive – he’s now on 13 wins after Constitution River ran away with the latest renewal by seven lengths in a time that was almost two seconds faster than Sohaib recorded in 2002, one of the only two years this century that Timeform called the ground at the meeting firm and video analysis confirms had no additional yardage either unlike the latest contest.

Fast times don’t always translate to fast timefigures, of course, as they need to be compared to all race times on the card and adjusted for ability, weights carried, weight-for-age among other things, but it did on this occasion, and notably too, with his overall time converting into a 124 figure.

Make no mistake, that’s exceptional for a three-year-old at a mile and a quarter in May and is not only the highest in the race this century but also easily the highest recorded in a Derby Trial in Britain or Ireland beyond a mile in that timeframe too, easily eclipsing the 119 Golden Horn posted in 2015 in the Dante before he went on to going on to win the Derby by three and a half lengths in a 127 timefigure. A decision on his participation at Epsom has yet to be made but if he misses it and gets the thumbs up for the Prix du Jockey-Club I can’t see the 6/4 currently on offer for that race lasting long.

The same afternoon, Jan Brueghel took the Ormonde Stakes readily from Mount Atlas to the satisfaction of this column. I’ve always been very positive about him but his whereabouts and well-being last year after running a stinker in the King George in first-time cheekpieces was a mystery that even famous fictional detective Sid Halley wouldn’t have solved, meaning a significant ante-post wager for the Arc went by without even a run for my money.

It only came to light this week he nearly died after choking on some hay at home. A 114 timefigure here on his first run since suggests the old boy is back with a bang and it’s worth remembering he posted a 126 at Epsom last year when beating Calandagan in the Coronation Cup. Still an entire, there are worse 16/1 shots for the Arc let alone the 33/1 he can be backed at.

Friday is traditionally Chester Cup Day but the proper attraction on the track this year was last year’s Derby winner Lambourn who reappeared in the Huxley Stakes. The extended mile and a quarter trip is short of his best but with an inside route he just outfought Bay City Roller whose run proved that his seven-length win in a Group 1 in Germany on soft ground last backend didn’t flatter him. The slow pace wouldn’t have suited Lambourn either – his timefigure was just 80 – but Calandagan will surely readily have his measure if he takes in the Coronation Cup and quite probably Jan Brueghel will have it too, so it might be a slightly easier assignment in the Hardwicke Stakes for him next time up.

Lambourn at Ballydoyle (Photo: Megan Ridgwell/The Jockey Club)

Lambourn at Ballydoyle on Monday (Photo: Megan Ridgwell/The Jockey Club)

Lingfield Park has none of the history to match Chester which along with York and arguably Carlisle is reputed to be the oldest Flat course in Britain still racing today, but like the North-West venue it’s best known on turf for its May meeting which also features trials for the Epsom classics.

The first running of the Derby Trial in 1932 (when it wasn’t a weight-for-age race) was won by subsequent Derby winner April The Fifth and a further Derby winner followed in 1937 before it went to the winners of the St Leger in 1947 and 1948, but it has been a much more sporadic pointer to Classic success since (like the Oaks Trial, the race lost its pattern status around 15 years ago) albeit Anthony Van Dyck did the Derby double in 2019.

Its latest winner Maltese Cross scrambled home by a neck from Bay Of Brilliance so maintaining his unbeaten record, but even though the first two were value for more than the six lengths they put between themselves and the third, a 96 timefigure on the back of a slower time than the Oaks Trial winner Cameo managed suggest both have a few pounds to find with the best of those likely to head to Epsom.

Cameo’s faster time equates to a 100 timefigure. Up significantly in trip, she won by nearly five lengths and was full value for that. Only three fillies have posted a higher winning timefigure in the race this century, and of the two that made it to Epsom Secret Gesture finished second in 2013. Annapurna, the most recent Oaks Trial winner to go on and win the Oaks, posted a 93 timefigure at Lingfield.

In Ireland on Sunday, one-time Derby favourite Pierre Bonnard was bidding to get his season back on track and enhance his own Classic claims in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown after an underwhelming reappearance in the Ballysax in April. He possibly wasn’t on the best part of the track that day but didn’t appear to have any excuses on this occasion, given a good lead into the race by his stable-companion Endorsement but unable to fend off James J Braddock whose late flourish got him home by a short head in a bunch finish. A 105 timefigure is ordinary for the grade and it’s fair to conclude there were no stars on show in a race won last year by Delacroix and the year before that by Los Angeles.

Across at Longchamp the first two French Classics took place, the equivalent of the 2000 and 1000 Guineas, on ground that wasn’t as soft as the official made out, for all conditions took a turn for the worse during the Poule d’essai des Pouliches (1000) when the rain started bucketing down. As in the Poulains (2000) its winner Diamond Necklace kept tight to the inside rail and ran out a very cosy winner of a well-run race.

Historically, she was a very good winner of the race and will be very hard to beat in the French Oaks; Rayif, the Poulains winner, less so. Runner-up Komorebi came from a poor position and covered much more ground than he did and I’m looking forward to seeing him back on faster ground, as I am Concorde Agreement who was second in the Saint-Alary after cutting out the running only to be foiled close home by one delivered from last place.