Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

A shorter than usual column this week given there was minimal top-grade action domestically last week the best of which took place at Sandown last Thursday evening with a card that comprised two Group races and two listed races.

The star equine attraction was one of the few horses Timeform currently has rated 130 or higher, Ombudsman, and he started at 2/5 to get the better of five rivals in the Star Sports Brigadier Gerard Stakes in which he had a significant advantage at the weights even if he was conceding 9lb all round.

Giving lumps of weight away isn’t such an onerous task when the pace isn’t flat out, as it wasn’t here, and his winning timefigure came in at just 107, but this was still a better effort than when winning the Dubai Turf at Meydan back in March and harder to come by too, pushed all the way by Gethin who got first run and rallied when passed, the pair finishing three lengths clear.

An 8lb sectional upgrade boosts Ombudsman’s overall timerating to 115 (Gethin’s upgrade was 7lb) which is still shy of the raw 121 figure he posted in the Brigadier Gerard in 2025 but which nevertheless tees him up nicely for the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes later this month.

The other Group race, the Henry II Stakes, was an even more tactical affair with the winner Dubai Future posting a very lowly 49. Well ridden in that he was kicked on over three furlongs out while the pace was still slow, he never looked like relinquishing his advantage for all he had just a neck to spare at the line over runner-up Sweet William, who also finished one place ahead of him in the Gold Cup at Ascot last year.

2025 Betfred Derby runner-up Lazy Griff shaped well in third mindful that the slow pace wouldn’t have suited though as always with one with the Gold Cup as his aim, there’s no guarantee he will stay just because he has shaped up till now as if he might.

Highlight of the night from a timefigure perspective as it was all week was Talk Of New York’s demolition job in the Star Sports Heron Stakes.

Sent off even-money favourite for all Timeform’s pre-race weight-adjusted ratings had Yazin 3lb higher, he built on his minor event win at Newmarket in a good time with an even faster performance here, worth 118 (no upgrade) which puts him among the top three-year-olds over a mile and cemented his place in the St James’s Palace Stakes up against Bow Echo and Gstaad.

They have both run slightly higher figures, but since being fitted with a hood his profile is arguably more upward and it’s worth remembering five of the last seven Heron winners have gone on to score at Group 2 level or higher with four of them bagging at least one Group 1.

The other listed race, the National Stakes, went to Where Love Lives in a tight and rather messy finish with barely a length covering the first five, the sixth finishing off well having been badly outpaced for much of the way while the well-backed favourite trailed in last. All that added up to a winning timefigure of 90 with negligible upgrades for each of the first five and more will required should any of them turn up at Ascot.

Only two horses who have contested the National Stakes since 2000 have gone on to win either the Norfolk Stakes (Russian Valour in 2003) or the Queen Mary (Rizeena in 2013) and Beverley’s Saturday card also featured a couple of long-standing ‘trials’ for those races.

Like the National Stakes, the Hilary Needler has never been a strong pointer to the Queen Mary for all Attraction won the race in 2003, but Easton Angel went on to finish second at Ascot after scoring at Beverley in 2015 while 2024 runner-up Maw Lam went onto finish third in 2024.

Its latest winner Crystal Queen at least returned one of the better winning timefigures since Attraction, 86, after a clear run down the outside in contrast to fourth-placed Cosmic Mystery (an expensive Wathnan-owned breeze-up buy) or fifth-placed The Can Can Queen (bizarrely dropped back in trip after winning over six at Ripon). The former might well leave this form behind next time.

The Two Year Old Trophy run on the same card and also over five furlongs has been a far better Ascot guide having produced an impressive three Norfolk winners since 2016 - Prince Of Lir that year, The Ridler in 2022 and Shareholder in 2024 – as well as in the same timeframe two runners-up.

This year’s renewal was run 0.37 seconds slower than the fillies’ contest despite the first two furlongs being faster and with barely two-and-a-half lengths covering the first five and a winning timefigure of 79 this might not turn out to be one of the more relevant editions, Matteo battling well when joined by runner-up Ronson who was probably a bit unlucky having been slowly away and then briefly finding his way blocked.

Crystal Queen’s trainers, Richard and Peter Fahey, also look to have a nice juvenile in the shape of Virtuous Star who scored first time out at Chester on Saturday.

One wouldn’t normally expect a £240,000 breeze-up purchase to be sent off at 12/1 on debut but that was presumably down to his wide stall and an 85 timefigure to which a weighted sectional upgrade (across the last three furlongs, more weight given to the final furlong) of 7lb puts him on 92. He’ll have learned a lot from this, having to make his effort widest of all, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him at Ascot either.

Haydock’s Silver Bowl card was transferred to Carlisle because of ongoing track difficulties at the former venue. Estrange won the sole Group contest, the Lester Piggott Stakes, readily in an ordinary time and remains on the radar for the Arc if we get a very wet autumn, while the listed Achilles Stakes went to Washington Heights in 110. The Bowl didn’t look as competitive as usual with plenty having a lot to find at the weights and didn’t result in a fast time either with Blue Courvoisier returning just 84.

What did Constitution River achieve in the French Derby?

Sunday’s Prix du Jockey-Club proved a triumph for the Aidan O’Brien with his three runners finishing first, second and third despite none of them being drawn in the low stalls that have provided most recent winners.

As I pointed out in my preview of the race, the ability to overcome a draw as wide as Constitution River was handed is all about ability, limitations of the opposition and tactics and there’s no doubt the Ballydoyle trio executed what was clearly a team game plan to perfection, Montreal quickly away from stall 8 to get the rail closely followed by Hawk Mountain and Constitution River as those less talented dropped in behind so sealing their own fate.

Montreal set a good pace but after running the first two of the final five 200m sections fastest of all his output slowed and his last furlong was slowest of any horse in the first eleven.

Constitution River’s 12.35 for that section was also beaten by seven horses, notably A Boy Named Susie who ran each of the last three 200m sections faster than the winner (and whose last 600m was the fastest of all) and Daryzan who ran the last two sections faster, while the second fastest last 600m was posted by Alam who like A Boy Named Suzie and Daryzan was out the back in the early stages.

Experience has shown that it’s unwise to think the fast finishers could have outrun the principals had they been positioned closer turning for home, but Daryzan, a half-brother to Arc winner Daryz, is a sure improver having just his second race here and it is surely significant his top stable who are known for their patient approach threw him at the deep end so soon.

Hankelow disappointed given his inside draw and prominent position, but it might be that the trip was too far (even if it wasn’t quite as far as advertised, an ongoing issue that’s not untypical in France where rail movements are not widely advertised and only the briefest details given when they are) and quite likely the ground was far too lively for him too, clearly good to firm on times.

There wasn’t a great deal of interest in the other supporting races on the card rather disappointingly. The Group 2 Prix de Chantilly was contested by six horses we know plenty about and form pick Goliath didn’t even have to run close to his best to win a steadily-run contest (easily the fastest last 600m of the Group aces on the round course) with something to spare.

The other Group 2, the Prix de Sandringham, went to Naomis who had last been seen winning in Toulouse but has clearly improved this season unlike (as yet, anyway) the overseas raiders Mubasimah and Green Sense for all the latter had the excuse of a seasonal reappearance over a trip possibly too far.

Behrayna took the Prix de Royaumont in the style of one who remains with a bit of potential, but the Prix du Gros-Chene (won by Sajir, Ponntos back in second) and the Prix La Fleche (run in a time 26lb slower than the 115-rated Sajir managed) failed to excite.

Aside from Behrayna, one horse on the card clearly still on the up is the listed Prix Marchand d’Or winner Kailani. He hasn’t had things go his way this season, being in the wrong part of the track on more than one occasion and finding trouble in running twice too, as he did quite seriously here, but despite that is progressing nicely and his 113 rating is good enough to win at Group level in France when the best British sprinters stay away as they oddly did on this card.

More Watch And Learn columns

• Gstaad can get closer to Bow Echo next time
• Dante Festival fallout
• River impresses on the clock at Chester
• Bow above average in 2000 Guineas
• Lots to like about Raaheeb
• I'm The One doesn't impress on the clock

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