Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis of the Betfred Derby Festival

"All the world and his wife come to Epsom, the gipsies and “pearlies” by ancient custom, the tipsters and bookmakers for gain, but the majority for a day of fun and bustle and laughter on the Downs, with the occasional glimpse of a famous horse and a famous jockey and a famous racing personage, and at regular times the quick dash of horses’ heads and bright colours as a Derby Day field sweeps by.

"The crowd is essentially a happy, carefree crowd, ready to cheer and ready to laugh, ready to endure discomfort for the sake of a big occasion, and to make light of mud and rain, and the trials which come with a mighty crowd".

I don’t recognise the Epsom depicted in those words, which were written by B. W. R. Curling in 1951, and neither presumably do the Jockey Club who at least made a partial effort this year to put some numbers back on the Hill only to be thwarted by mud and rain of a type the crowd didn’t make light of but instead persuaded plenty of them to head for the exits before the big race, once the most famous in the world, had even started.

The 1951 Derby was won by Arctic Prince, a horse who was retired after running in the inaugural King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes and who at stud ending up siring the dam of the 1964 winner Santa Claus, a horse whose name bizarrely was mentioned in a time capsule found in London ahead of the Derby, urging a finder to back a future horse linked with Christmas.

Much like Paul the Octopus who achieved a 100% success rate when correctly predicting all Germany’s results in the 2010 World Cup, the hint dropped by the time capsule proved prescient and in truth Christmas Day, whose profile included a proven ability to handle very testing conditions (the winning time was the slowest this century by nearly four seconds, causing Timeform to alter their going description to soft from good to soft earlier in the afternoon) as well as reserves of stamina that had seen him win at nine furlongs as a juvenile never looked in much danger of defeat once he took up the running over three furlongs out.

Slow times don’t necessarily translate into slow timefigures, of course, as the merit of each finishing time has to be analysed in the wider context of all the other races that took place at the track the same day whose outcomes will themselves have been affected by factors such as weights carried, the ability of the horses involved, early pace, wind strength and direction and even surface deterioration (as was evident here), but with the help of the published detailed sectionals on a card of largely well-run races a satisfactory going allowance was straightforward to settle on despite the deteriorating conditions so making Christmas Day’s timefigure 118 with no upgrade across any of the last three furlongs.

That’s not historically high, even this century, joint-18th in fact, albeit better than Lambourn (114) posted last year, and it’s hard not to escape the conclusion that at this stage this was something of a substandard Derby.

None of the field had a pre-race rating higher than 118p after all (the last time that happened was in 2017 when Wings Of Eagles beat rivals that included the subsequently top-class Cracksman), a far cry from 1964 when Santa Claus (who had won the Irish 2000 on his previous start) beat a 17-runner field that included subsequent Great Voltigeur and St Leger winner Indiana as well as 2000 Guineas winner and subsequent Champion Stakes winner Baldric in front of a crowd estimated at 200,000 spectators.

What of those beaten in the Derby?

Christmas Day will probably attempt to follow up in the Irish Derby as Lambourn and Santa Claus both did successfully, but what about the others behind him?

Item who beat him in the Dante presumably had his chance scuppered by conditions very different to those the pair encountered at York and remains open to progress away from soft ground, while runner-up Maltese Cross confirmed Lingfield Derby Trial form with Bay Of Brilliance (fourth, small 2lb upgrade, the highest of those in the frame) and looks a real St Leger candidate to me even if connections are reported to be heading to the Irish Derby next.

Third-placed James J Braddock came from some way back (as did the same stable’s Tennessee Stud last year) but like 2025 runner-up Lazy Griff, he couldn’t reverse Epsom form with Lambourn at the Curragh and maybe the same scenario will play out again.

If there is one horse in the field who might, ground permitting, it’s probably Benvenuto Cellini who was upsides the eventual third early in the straight but once again floundered on ground not entirely dissimilar to that which had caught him out in the Futurity last October.

All said and done, Christmas Day was the rightful winner on the day, running the last furlong fastest of all; for what it’s worth Alderman, who’d been brushed aside with ease by Water To Wine at Newbury on his previous start, ran the second fastest last furlong, while Rebel Rocker, the least experienced member of all the field, was only 0.01 second slower in that section than Maltese Cross, despite having been ridden more prominently in the strongly-run early part of the race.

Roller revels in optimum conditions

Lambourn also ran on Derby Day in the Coolmore Coronation Cup but could finish only third in a race last year’s first and second Jan Brueghel and Calandagan were also beaten ten lengths and more with the latter eased right off in a distant fourth as Bay City Roller confirmed himself an elite performer at a mile-and-a-half when conditions start becoming very testing (the ground was already borderline soft by this stage).

In a contest in which Illinois was ridden into the ground as a pacemaker - not a pleasant watch in itself - Bay City Roller took it up entering the straight and stayed wider than the rest despite Sparks Fly (105 timefigure) having run out a wide-length winner of the Princess Elizabeth Stakes earlier in the afternoon alone on the far rail.

A time over three-and-a-half seconds faster than Christmas Day translates into a minimum 117 timefigure, perhaps overly cautious mindful of the better conditions compared to those Christmas Day faced, and two starts now at a mile-and-a-half on ground soft or borderline soft have resulted in Group 1 wins by a combined total of 17 lengths.

Calandagan’s trainer will be kicking himself that he went against his better judgement and allowed him to run; Jan Brueghel didn’t convince with his head carriage while Lambourn it seemed to me ended up paying the price for continuing the unsustainable gallop set by Illinois, looking second best for much of the straight.

In the other races, Ten Bob Tony won the opening Tattenham Corner Stakes in 114 while the feature handicap of the day, the high-draw-dominated ‘Dash’, went to Arklow Lad in 98, just 2lb shy of his performance rating.

The general feeling I got from reading various media sources on the previous day’s Betfred Oaks was considered a better renewal than the Derby and Timeform agree, crediting Thundering On (124p) with just 1lb less than both Enable and Sariska achieved and level with Ouija Board for all the her timefigure wasn’t outstanding, coming in at 109 before a 5lb upgrade (runner-up Legacy Link got 0, pace-setting Sugar Island got 3lb) boosted her overall timerating to 114.

Taking the final furlong by itself, however, in which she was one of only three horses on the day on the round course to dip under 12 seconds (the other two both came in the concluding seven-furlong handicap) her upgrade could be 9lb so making her overall timerating 118.

Her win and fast-improving profile mark her down as an obvious soft-ground Arc candidate and she may yet prove just as good on a quicker surface having not yet raced on anything Timeform have called faster than good.

There didn’t seem too many excuses for the others as I saw it, though both K Serra and Venetian Lace will surely drop back in trip after this, while A La Prochaine looks a prime candidate to me at this early stage for the Park Hill at Doncaster.

Seagulls Eleven was never far away from an ordinary pace in the Diomed Stakes and edged it by a nose in a 93 timefigure, while Hickory Lad ran out a clear-cut winner of a disappointing (quality not quantity) Woodcote field, posting a 92 which is a small improvement on his previous best (89), paying a compliment to Adonius who beat him readily in what is clearly a well-above average Lily Ages at Chester this year.

Indeed, Adonius has posted the best timefigure (97) by a juvenile so far domestically and not just once but twice, a figure which has been matched by only Great Barrier Reef and Victorious in Ireland.

Senorita Bonita ran out an impressive winner at Nottingham last week in the race Leovanni took en route to the 2024 Queen Mary and scored in exactly the same timefigure, 84, though her overall timerating is a fair bit higher than that (88) after her final-furlong sectional is factored in, though Barbury Boy ran an even faster one in the three-year-old ten furlong handicap later in the card.

Much like Karl Burke likes to introduce his best speedier juveniles at Carlisle, Nottingham has been the venue of choice for the Crisford team over the years with Middle Park winner Vandeek and Celebration Mile winner Century Dream both starting off there.

It will be interesting to see if Senorita Bonita lines up in the Queen Mary where she will face another costly Breeze-Up purchase Wild Blossom, who made a striking visual impression for Burke at Carlisle on debut, but her timefigure also wasn’t outstanding, yet she looks open to plenty of improvement.

More Watch And Learn columns

• Talk Of New York earns Palace date
• Gstaad can get closer to Bow Echo next time
• Dante Festival fallout
• River impresses on the clock at Chester
• Bow above average in 2000 Guineas
• Lots to like about Raaheeb
• I'm The One doesn't impress on the clock

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