Andrew Asquith's guide to the festive season's top races, including betting, trainer quotes, tips and notable past winners.
LONG WALK HURDLE
3m Kempton, Monday 26 December (12:45)
Betting: Champ 5/2, Miranda 3/1, Goshen 9/2, Paisley Park 9/2, Botox Has 13/2, Not So Sleepy 12/1
Stable quotes
Jamie Moore (Goshen):
‘I’m certain he will get the trip and that doesn’t bother me at all. It was a very good performance at Ascot over an extended two miles three there on good ground that didn’t suit him. It was on the fast side and he is a proper soft ground horse, however he is a horse that has got a tremendous amount of ability. When he runs right-handed over hurdles, he is a hard horse to beat.’
Analysis: Champ and Paisley Park have won the last two renewals of the Long Walk and given they fought out a close-knit battle at Newbury last month it is no surprise to see them well fancied in the betting.
However, on form, there isn't much to split that pair and GOSHEN, so, at the prices, it may be worth taking a chance on him staying this longer trip. His record on right-handed tracks is very good and the forecast rain at Kempton will very much be in his favour, while there is reason to think three miles round Kempton will be within his compass.
Goshen will likely be ridden prominently and could have his rivals in trouble turning for home if at the top of his game.
Last year’s race
At its usual home of Ascot, this featured two past winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle, including Paisley Park who was also twice a winner of the Long Walk, but he was only able to stay on for third on the run-in behind CHAMP who outpointed favourite Thyme Hill on his return to hurdling after two seasons over fences.
Notable winners since 2000: Baracouda (4 times), Big Buck’s (3 times), Reve de Sivola (3 times), Paisley Park (twice), Champ
KAUTO STAR NOVICES’ CHASE
3m Kempton, Monday 26 December (13:20)
Betting: McFabulous 6/5, Ballygrifincottage 5/2, Gelino Bello 7/2, Thyme Hill 6/1, Galia des Liteaux 10/1, Mortlach 33/1
Trainer quotes
Paul Nicholls (McFabulous):
‘He loves Kempton and won the restaged EBF Final there and the Relkeel Hurdle there. A flat track, right-handed like this, is made for him. The Kauto Star will be a great race for him. He has taken to jumping fences well. He is an exciting horse to run at the meeting.’
Analysis: This looks a very interesting renewal of the Kauto Star with plenty of potential on show and, while it was hard not to be impressed by McFabulous' defeat of Thyme Hill in the John Francome Novices' Chase at Newbury last time, the Dan Skelton-trained BALLYGRIFINCOTTAGE looked something out of the ordinary when making a winning start over fences at Haydock last month.
He won all three of his completed starts in points and his jumping was exemplary. He may have been in receipt of 8 lb, but he dispatched a useful chaser with plenty in hand and represents a yard that does really well with novice chasers - Dan Skelton won this race in 2020 with Shan Blue.
It says plenty of the regard in which he's held that he is moved into Grade 1 company on just his second start over fences, while he will also relish this longer trip.
Last year’s race
An eagerly anticipated rematch between BRAVEMANSGAME and Ahoy Senor, both unbeaten over fences since meeting in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree the previous spring, and with the latter’s jumping less polished and not setting a strong enough pace to play to his own strengths, it was Bravemansgame who turned the tables, quickening clear from two out.
Notable winners since 2000: Bacchanal, Long Run, Dynaste, Coneygree, Bravemansgame
CHRISTMAS HURDLE
2m Kempton, Monday 26 December (13:55)
Betting: Constitution Hill 1/5, Epatante 6/1, I Like To Move It 10/1, Knappers Hill 14/1, Sceau Royal 14/1, 33/1 bar
Analysis: It is impossible to get away from the claims of CONSTITUTION HILL, who has been outstanding in every area for all three of his Grade 1 wins, including when beating stablemate and last year's winner of this race Epatante by 12 lengths in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle last month. It will be the shock of all shocks if he is beaten.
Last year’s race
EPATANTE made the most of a good opportunity to win this for a second time after a poor showing from Not So Sleepy with whom she’d dead-heated in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, though after looking set to win in some style early in the straight she had little to spare in the end in landing the odds from outsider Glory And Fortune.
Notable winners since 2000: Harchibald (twice), Binocular (twice), Faugheen (twice), Buveur d’Air, Epatante (twice)
CHRISTMAS NOVICE CHASE
2m1f Leopardstown, Monday 26 December (14:20)
Betting: Fil Dor evens, Hollow Games 3/1, Saint Roi 5/1, Dysart Dynamo 8/1, Mighty Potter 10/1, Three Stripe Life 12/1, 25/1 bar
Trainer quotes
Gordon Elliott (Fil Dor and Hollow Games)
‘I’d imagine Hollow Games and Fil Dor will go to Leopardstown. It was hard to pick holes in what Hollow Games did at Navan last time and Fil Dor didn’t put a foot wrong on his first start over fences there either.’
Analysis: FIL DOR was in receipt of 8 lb from Saint Roi and also had race-fitness on his side when making a winning start over fences at Navan last month, but he still strikes as the best long-term prospect and is fully expected to uphold the form on revised terms.
Fil Dor is only a four-year-old but, given his physique and demeanour, you can see why connections have opted send him chasing so early in his career. He looks a natural, too, comfortably seeing off Saint Roi, who was a superior hurdler, while also leaving the impression he will have learnt plenty for that initial experience. Fil Dor will continue to take the beating while his weight-for-age allowance is as big as it is.
Last year’s race
A top-class effort from FERNY HOLLOW who made all, travelling powerfully, to account for the smart Riviere d’Etel who was in receipt of all the allowances as a four-year-old filly, but whilst the winner looked an outstanding prospect, he’s stood little racing so far and hasn’t been unable to make it to the track again since.
Notable winners since 2000: Moscow Flyer, Sizing Europe, Douvan, Min, Footpad
KING GEORGE VI CHASE
3m Kempton, Monday 26 December (14:30)
Betting: Bravemansgame 7/4, L'Homme Presse 2/1, Hitman 11/2, Envoi Allen 7/1, Frodon 16/1, Eldorado Allen 16/1, Royale Pagaille 16/1, Ahoy Senor 20/1, Millers Bank 50/1
Connections’ quotes
Andy Edwards (joint-owner, L’Homme Presse)
‘Our intention is to go to the King George, assuming the ground is suitable for him. Kempton is not the ideal track for L’Homme Presse because it is so flat and sharp. After Newcastle, he really needs to run now, and is ready to go. He is moving very nicely and we are hopeful we can go.’
Paul Nicholls (Bravemansgame, Hitman)
‘Bravemansgame probably deserves to be favourite as he has won this year and he has won the Kauto Star around the track and he seems to be progressing…he won at Kempton last year and the track suits him well, a flat right-handed track. I’ve always thought this would be Bravemansgame’s target ever since he won the Kauto Star last year. He has always been prepared for it. It probably is his toughest test as he has gone through his novice races and he has won his first race out of novice company this year. He is now into the big boys’ league in the biggest race there is over Christmas.’
‘[Hitman’s stamina] is the unknown, of course it is. We know Bravemansgame gets the three miles well at Kempton and he hasn’t yet, but he got the trip well at Haydock the other day and I think he is crying out for this trip. I think up to now he hasn’t been man enough or strong enough to get the trip, but he is ready now.’
Henry de Bromhead (Envoi Allen)
‘We can sharpen his jumping up a little bit. We’re so used to him being extravagant, but maybe over three miles, going that stride slower he’s not as exuberant. I think the way his wind is he needs nice-ish ground. I’d be more concerned if it came up very soft. I loved the way he ran through the line at Down Royal and travels really well. Unlike with Minella Indo last year going to Kempton where I thought ‘I have to force this’, I presume this guy will just travel away in behind them. Hopefully it will suit him.’
Analysis: The King George became even more interesting when connections of L'HOMME PRESSE declared he is an intended runner and he arguably should be favourite - for context, he is 6 lb clear of Envoi Allen and 9 lb ahead of Bravemansgame on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings and still has a 'p' attached to his rating, symbolising he is open to further improvement.
The weather forecast is also in his favour and the more rain that falls the bigger his chance becomes. The only blip in L'Homme Presse's career over fences so far came in the Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree last season - won by Ahoy Senor - but Venetia Williams' horses weren't firing at the time and it came at the end of a tough campaign. That effort can easily be excused and he proved his well-being when defying top-weight on his return in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last month. This will be tougher but he is fully expected to pass the test.
Last year’s race
A strong field on paper but conditions were unusually testing for a King George and at 28/1 the Willie Mullins-trained TORNADO FLYER became the longest-priced winner in the race’s long history, the fall of his stablemate Asterion Forlonge at the last leaving him to come ahead of Paul Nicholls’ trio, with former dual winner Clan des Obeaux runner-up and 2020 winner Frodon in fourth.
Notable winners since 2000: Best Mate, Kicking King (twice), Kauto Star (5 times), Long Run (twice), Silviniaco Conti (twice), Clan des Obeaux (twice)
FAUGHEEN NOVICE CHASE
2m3f Limerick, Monday 26 December (14:40)
Betting: Gerri Colombe 8/11, Kilcruit 9/4, Mighty Potter 5/1, Gaillard du Mesnil 10/1, Three Stripe Life 10/1, Minella Crooner 16/1, 25/1 bar
Trainer quotes
Gordon Elliott (Gerri Colombe, Mighty Potter)
‘Gerri Colombe and Mighty Potter might go to Limerick. It’s not definite yet for Mighty Potter but if he goes anywhere this Christmas it’ll be to Limerick. If the ground turned out to be bottomless there, that would be the worry. We’ll see. Hopefully Gerri will come on for his first start over fences at Fairyhouse where he was very good.’
Analysis: Gerri Colombe looks a hugely exciting prospect, yet to be beaten in six starts including a point, and he left the impression he had plenty more to offer when making a winning start over fences in a 2m5f maiden chase at Fairyhouse last month.
However, he shaped like a horse ready for a step back up in trip on that occasion, and may find KILCRUIT a little too speedy over this distance. Kilcruit didn't quite reach the heights he promised over hurdles, but he was bordering on smart, and he may be able to properly fulfil his potential over fences. His jumping didn't need to be anything special to beat inferior rivals at Punchestown, but he will surely have sharpened up for that outing and he is narrowly preferred at the current odds.
Last year’s race
The first two pulled a long way clear of the rest in typically testing conditions for Limerick on Boxing Day and, after briefly looking in control at the last, favourite Farouk d’Alene was caught on the line by the strong finish of 10/1-shot MASTER MCSHEE.
Notable winners since 2000: Sir des Champs, Outlander, Bellshill, Faugheen, Colreevy
PADDY’S REWARDS CLUB CHASE
2m1f Leopardstown, Tuesday 27 December (13:10)
Betting: Chacun Pour Soi evens, Blue Lord 9/4, Captain Guinness 6/1, Gentleman de Mee 10/1, Andy Dufresne 12/1, Cœur Sublime 18/1, Jeremys Flame 20/1, Battleoverdoyen 33/1
Analysis: CHACUN POUR SOI is rising 11 years of age, but he showed he is still capable of top-class form when winning the Dublin Chase at this course last season, and he will be incredibly hard to beat if at that level on his return to action.
He was beaten only by Champion Chase winner and stablemate Energumene when last seen at Punchestown and generally goes well fresh, while his only defeat at Leopardstown came when runner-up to A Plus Tard in this race in 2019. Chacun Pour Soi won it the following year and is expected to gain compensation for having to miss defending his crown at the eleventh hour 12 months ago.
Last year’s race
The withdrawal of 2020 winner Chacun Pour Soi through lameness on the morning of the race left a disappointing field of three and, in rather a slow-motion finish, ENVOI ALLEN made rather hard work of landing the odds from Battleoverdoyen with outsider Sizing Pottsie already well adrift when unseating two out.
Notable winners since 2000: Moscow Flyer (twice), Big Zeb (3 times), Sizing Europe, Douvan, A Plus Tard, Chacun Pour Soi
FUTURE CHAMPIONS NOVICE HURDLE
2m Leopardstown, Tuesday 27 December (13:45)
Betting: Facile Vega 1/4, Irish Point 5/1, Il Etait Temps 13/2, Intranet 8/1, Ashroe Diamond 12/1, Imagine 16/1, 25/1 bar
Analysis: The bare form of FACILE VEGA's debut win over hurdles at Fairyhouse earlier this month can't be rated too highly given the opposition he beat, but he could hardly have made a better impression and he has the potential to go right to the top in this sphere.
He was a dominant force in bumpers last season, the figure he posted when beating American Mike in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival well above Timeform's five-year average, and he showed he can knuckle down when needed when winning his second Grade 1 in that sphere at Punchestown in April. Willie Mullins won this race with Appreciate It, who went on to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, a couple of years ago, and surely he has similar aspirations for Facile Vega.
Last year’s race
Willie Mullins fielded three of the runners but it was the Gordon Elliott pair MIGHTY POTTER and Three Stripe Life who came to the fore with the pair going on to further Grade 1 success later in the campaign at Punchestown and Aintree respectively, Mighty Potter staying on well to lead before the last.
Notable winners since 2000: Solerina, Hurricane Fly, Jezki, Sizing John, Abracadabras, Appreciate It
WELSH GRAND NATIONAL
3m6f Chepstow, Tuesday 27 December (14:50)
Betting: Quick Wave 9/2, The Big Dog 7/1, The Galloping Bear 15/2, Ask Me Early 9/1, Pats Fancy 10/1, The Big Breakaway 14/1, Threeunderthrufive 14/1, Punitive 16/1, Escaria Ten 16/1, 20/1 bar
Trainer quotes
Ben Clarke (The Galloping Bear)
‘He’s been very good, we went to Carlisle for a run over hurdles and we were very happy with that. He’s a horse that always takes a run to put him right, so we were very keen to get him out before the Welsh National. He seems to have come out of it well, he’s back galloping and working well, so it’s all systems go for the Welsh National now. We wanted to run him in this last year, but he scoped dirty two days before, so we’re hoping this time he’ll get there in good form. Off 140, I think he’s got a very good chance. He stays all day, so it’s got to be very testing for him – soft or heavy. When others are struggling in hock-deep ground, that’s when he certainly won’t give up.’
Peter Fahey (The Big Dog)
‘We had no luck in the race last year when he made a mistake and the reins went over his head, but hopefully he can run a huge race this time. At the moment that’s where we’re aiming him. He’s only got a 4 lb penalty for the Troytown if we go there and I think the track will suit him. If we were looking to run him in Ireland for his next start he’d be racing off a much higher mark so it looks a good opportunity if we get a bit of luck in running. He’s in great form and has been since he came back this season. Hopefully we can continue on that thread and if he could end up being a horse for the Grand National it’d be great.’
Analysis: The price of THE GALLOPING BEAR has dwindled over the last few weeks but he really is tailormade for the test that a Welsh National brings and he still looks the one to be with.
He is very lightly raced for a nine-year-old but has finished first past the post on all four of his starts over fences - he was recently disqualified for his win in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last season after testing positive for a banned substance - and has an abundance of stamina.
The Galloping Bear warmed up nicely for this test with a return spin over hurdles at Carlisle last month where he left the impression he would come on plenty for the run, and this unexposed chaser will relish the return to marathon trips back over fences.
Last year’s race
Fitness and stamina were tested to the full in a Welsh National that saw only a quarter of the field complete and with former winner (and Gold Cup winner) Native River heading the weights on his final start, winner IWILLDOIT, one of several out of the handicap, showed further improvement on just his fourth start over fences to account for just four other finishers.
Notable winners since 2000: Bindaree, Silver Birch, Synchronised, Mountainous (twice), Native River
PADDY POWER CHASE
3m Leopardstown, Tuesday 27 December (15:00)
Betting: Panda Boy 7/1, Ain’t That A Shame 8/1, Donkey Years 8/1, Frontal Assault 10/1, Mr Incredible 12/1, Farceur du Large 16/1, Captain Kangaroo 16/1, Ciel de Neige 16/1, Darrens Hope 16/1, Lieutenant Command 16/1, 20/1 bar
Analysis: This is always a competitive handicap chase, but there was plenty to like about AIN'T THAT A SHAME's return to action when narrowly touched off at Limerick in October and he looks the ideal type for this race.
He was well fancied for the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival last season, but he ran no sort of race, too buzzed up in the early stages and he was out on his feet jumping the last two fences. Ain't That A Shame again attracted support on his reappearance and travelled like the best horse at the weights. He more than likely would have won but for making a couple of mistakes in the closing stages, and he is well worth another chance to prove himself on a good mark.
Last year’s race
A typically competitive field on paper, although only half the field completed, and it saw an improved effort from the ill-fated SCHOOL BOY HOURS to get off the mark over fences on his first start since the Punchestown Festival. Back in ninth was the novice Noble Yeats, failing to justify strong support on this occasion but later going to cause a surprise in the Grand National.
Notable winners since 2000: Majestic Concorde, Noble Endeavor, Anibale Fly, Castlebawn West
JACK DE BROMHEAD CHRISTMAS HURDLE
3m Leopardstown, Wednesday 28 December (13:45)
Betting: Flooring Porter 9/4, Klassical Dream 9/4, Bob Olinger 3/1, Home By The Lee 6/1, Zanahiyr 10/1, Ashdale Bob 14/1, Queens Brook 14/1, Beacon Edge 16/1, 25/1 bar
Trainer quotes
Joseph O’Brien (Home By The Lee)
‘He’s a strong stayer and the plan is to run at Leopardstown. We’re looking forward to it. He’s had a smooth preparation and this has always been the plan since Navan. Bob Olinger is a top-quality horse and we were a big-price winner on the day, but we are hopeful Home By The Lee will run well and are happy with how our horse has trained.’
Analysis: This race was arguably won at the start 12 months ago when Klassical Dream stole a march on his rivals. He has to be feared again, particularly after running a cracker in the Hatton's Grace over two and a half miles last time, but it is FLOORING PORTER who makes more appeal.
He was runner-up to Klassical Dream 12 months ago but ran a mighty race given the circumstances, and he warmed up for this nicely when finishing fourth in the Lismullen Hurdle at Navan on his return over an inadequate two and a half miles. Flooring Porter had Home By The Lee, Bob Olinger and Ashdale Bob in front of him on that occasion, but he was conceding 9 lb to those rivals and meets them on level terms now. He will surely be tighter for that outing and will also be well suited by a return to three miles. Flooring Porter is still only a seven-year-old and this dual Stayers' Hurdle winner must have a big chance.
Last year’s race
An unsatisfactory start, with KLASSICAL DREAM pinching an early lead at the expense of chief rival and previous season’s winner Flooring Porter, but that pair proved utterly dominant as Klassical Dream maintained a strong gallop throughout, the remainder never on terms and finishing well strung out.
Notable winners since 2000: Limestone Lad (also won 1999), Bannow Bay (twice), Voler La Vedette, Apple’s Jade (3 times), Flooring Porter
SAVILLS CHASE
3m Leopardstown, Wednesday 28 December (14:20)
Betting: A Plus Tard 6/4, Conflated 7/2, Stattler 9/2, Galvin 6/1, Kemboy 10/1, Minella Indo 12/1, Envoi Allen 16/1, Fury Road 16/1, Royal Rendezvous 25/1, French Dynamite 33/1, Franco de Port 50/1
Trainer quotes
Henry de Bromhead (A Plus Tard)
‘His run in Haydock was just too bad to be true. We took bloods from him on the Monday before he was to go and they were perfect. The Monday, two days after he ran, one of them was sky high – off the Richter scale. The vets think it showed a bizarre allergic reaction to something. He’s being geared towards the Savills Chase at Leopardstown. He’ll have to come through all the checks before he can run but it’s nice to have a reason for the run in Haydock.’
Gordon Elliott (Conflated, Galvin)
‘I was very happy with Conflated in Down Royal. He had a good blow and came on an awful lot for the run. This will be his next target and he’s a good horse. He probably surprised me a little bit in the Irish Gold Cup, but he’s a fair horse on his day.’
‘[Galvin] scoped dirty after Down Royal but is back in good nick now and I’d imagine he’ll go to Leopardstown again.’
Analysis: This race revolves around the well-being of A Plus Tard, who sets a high standard on the form of his Gold Cup win last season but ran a shocker on his return in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Excuses have come to light since, but you probably wouldn't want to be taking short odds about him in a race of this nature on the back of that.
Therefore, it may be worth siding with GALVIN each-way. He caused a slight upset when nailing A Plus Tard on the line in this race last year, and he wasn't disgraced in the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, for all that form was comprehensively reversed.
Galvin looked as good as ever when making a winning return in a Grade 3 event at Punchestown and reportedly scoped dirty after a below-par display when behind some of these at Down Royal last time. Gordon Elliott has stated he is back in form and this track appeared to suit him last year. If he brings his best form, he should be hard to keep out of the first three.
Last year’s race
The last three winners were in the field again but GALVIN was a new name on the trophy as he continued his rise up the chasing ranks, needing to dig very deep and drawing on his abundant reserves of stamina to get the better of former winners A Plus Tard, later to turn the tables on him at Cheltenham, and Kemboy by a short head and three quarters of a length.
Notable winners since 2000: Beef Or Salmon (3 times), Best Mate, Denman, Synchronised, Bobs Worth, A Plus Tard
NEVILLE HOTELS NOVICE CHASE
3m Leopardstown, Thursday 29 December (13:45)
Betting: Gaillard du Mesnil 6/4, Minella Crooner 3/1, Three Stripe Life 9/2, Gerri Colombe 5/1, Hollow Games 10/1, Mighty Potter 12/1, Frontal Assault 14/1, 20/1 bar
Analysis: With Mighty Potter unlikely to take up his entry in this race it should prove a very good opportunity for GAILLARD DU MESNIL to deservedly open his account over fences.
He has to be one of the best second-season novice chasers in training and lost little in defeat when runner-up to Mighty Potter in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse on his return earlier this month. That was over two and a half miles, but as a horse who contested the Irish Grand National last season, Gaillard du Mesnil will relish the step back up in trip, and Willie Mullins didn't hesitate when saying they will be going the Grade 1 route with him this season. With that run under his belt Gaillard du Mesnil may take a bit of beating here.
Last year’s race
A fourth winner in the last five years for Gordon Elliott whose FURY ROAD was winning for the first time over fences at the third attempt, matching his very smart hurdles form and coming home eight lengths clear of the Troytown winner Run Wild Fred to complete a one-two for his stable and owners Gigginstown.
Notable winners since 2000: Carlingford Lough, Don Poli, Our Duke, Delta Work, Monkfish
MATHESON HURDLE
2m Leopardstown, Thursday 29 December (14:20)
Betting: State Man 2/5, Sharjah 10/3, Pied Piper 7/1, Vauban 10/1, Bob Olinger 14/1, Teahupoo 14/1, Zanahiyr 20/1, Saldier 33/1, She Is Electric 150/1
Analysis: The question on many people's lips of late has been is there anything that can beat Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle?
Well, STATE MAN is as short as 4/1 in the ante-post betting to do so, and he should take all the beating in this year's edition of the Matheson Hurdle. He landed a gamble in the County Hurdle at last season's Cheltenham Festival and then followed up in Grade 1 company at Punchestown.
State Man picked up where he left off when running out a comfortable winner of the Morgiana Hurdle (beating Sharjah by four lengths) at Punchestown on his return and this looks the obvious next step for him. He is clearly an exciting prospect and is strongly fancied to continue his winning run.
Last year’s race
SHARJAH and Patrick Mullins have been a standing dish in this contest in recent seasons and they emulated Istabraq and Hurricane Fly by winning it for a fourth time, this time as odds-on shots. Having to switch a couple of times coming from off the pace, Sharjah made smooth headway early in the straight before edging ahead for a neck win over Zanahiyr.
Notable winners since 2000: Istabraq (also won 1997-1999), Moscow Flyer, Brave Inca (twice), Hurricane Fly (4 times), Sharjah (4 times)
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