NFL betting tips: Best touchdown scorers and best bets for Week 12
With a range of winners so far, Matt Temple-Marsh is back to look for more offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
NFL betting tips: Week 12
2pts Christian McCaffrey to score anytime in Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins at 20/21 (bet365)
1pt Kareem Hunt to score anytime in Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens at 21/10 (Betfair)
1pt Laviska Shenault Jr to score anytime in Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars at 21/10 (bet365)
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Christian McCaffrey to score anytime at 20/21 (bet365)
Last week I talked about Jonathan Taylor (who went off for five touchdowns), and whilst I tend to stay away from tipping short priced players – I can’t believe CMC’s price.
We’re talking about a player with a 90%+ rushing share and a 30%+ target share, and just one of the best running backs in the NFL.
He scored his first TD since returning from injury last week, and faces a Dolphin defence who have conceded ten TDs to RBs through nine games (and they haven’t faced an elite RB like CMC yet).
Back CMC before he returns to his standard 4/9 price.
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Laviska Shenault Jr to score anytime at 21/10 (bet365)
Jamal Agnew suffered a hip injury in week 11 and is now out for the season. This has allowed Shenault to return to his customary slot receiver role, where we can now expect a bump in production.
The move to outside hadn’t been kind for the second-year receiver, as he’s still yet to score a TD this season – after a successful rookie campaign where we caught five TDs.
He now faces a Falcons defence who have conceded over 1,500 yards and 14 TDs to WRs this season – ranking as the seventh worst defence in the league to the position.
This is a plus match-up for a player at a large price.
New York Jets @ Houston Texans
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Tyrod Taylor to score anytime at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
In a game that no one will be watching, I love Tyrod’s chances.
Last week he carved up the Titans’ for a brace on the ground, and now faces a Jets side who are conceding an average of 32 points a game.
The Jets have by far the worst rushing defence in the league – conceding 17 TDs on the ground through ten games.
The Texans are far from well equipped at running back – and Tyrod actually leads the team in rushing touchdowns. That shows little trust in David Johnson/Rex Burkhead to punch the ball in – so expect Tyrod to capitalise on the open field.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
- When: Monday @ 1:20am
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Kareem Hunt to score anytime at 21/10 (Betfair)
Kareem Hunt is slated to return from the injured reserved list this week, and it seems like bookmakers have forgotten how prolific he was at the start of the year.
Through his first six games he had five touchdowns – whilst averaging 11.5 carries a game alongside four targets.
The Browns would be wise to lean into their 1-2 punch of Chubb & Hunt again, as they face a Ravens defence who have conceded nine TDs to RBs this season.
The last time these teams played, Hunt went off for a brace. Expect the talented RB to return with a bang.
Odds correct as of 1200 GMT (27/11/21)
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