Olympics bets: Preview, tips and analysis ahead of Tokyo 2020 women's golf

Golf betting tips: Olympics women's competition

1pt e.w. Yuka Saso at 33/1 (Unibet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Patty Tavatanakit at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Patty Tavatakankit first round lead at 25/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

When Baron Pierre de Coubertin reintroduced the Olympics at the back end of the 19th century he was correct to believe he had unleashed a marvellous monster but, for a few editions at least, the vibe was less elite-level-sporting-endeavour than deliciously-chaotic-village-fete.

There was, for example, the British tourist who entered the Athens 1896 tennis event because he happened to be passing – and won gold. Then there are tales of the javelin getting repeatedly stuck in the trees of the Bois de Boulogne in Paris four years later (locals refused to have the branches cut back). Even better, world records were being smashed in the swimming – a natural consequence of the action taking place downstream in the River Seine.

Matters hadn’t improved four years later in London. In the tug of war the British team wore absurdly weighted shoes. A furious American official wrote: "One fellow could barely lift his feet." They could only drum up one golfer that year, too, following a dispute and, with that shoddy showing, the sport disappeared from the Games for over a century.

The preposterous nature of those early Olympics had been upheld in the only women’s event prior to golf’s return five years ago. In 1900, Chicago native Margaret Abbott and her mother, much like the British tennis player eight years earlier, entered on a whim while on a European vacation. Absurdly, Abbott didn’t know she was competing in the Olympics and would die 55 years later unaware that she was both a gold medallist and a pioneer of women’s sport.

In complete contrast, Inbee Park, who succeeded Abbott in 2016, knew all about the importance of her win. "It was the most pressure I’ve ever felt in my life," she said on Monday. She’d won six major championships in the previous three seasons, was the world number one, a super hero in her home country, but injured. "The whole of Korea was worrying about my condition," she said. "It was very, very hard. Very stressful. To overcome that and win gold was amazing."

She played no golf for two months before that win in Rio and none again until March the following year. It was an astounding effort, but at what price? She’s won plenty since, but never in the majors. Can the Olympic spirit revive her? She’s so consistent it would be a surprise if she is not involved. But, having expressed concern at the length of the course, she’s under no illusions that it’s a factor which disadvantages her.

Park also referenced the firm greens which will further help the longer hitters, who can launch short irons to hold them. Gaby Lopez, who carried the flag for Mexico in the opening ceremony, described the test as, "like a US Women’s Open… narrow off the tee... rough very thick… firm greens… grass a little spongy."

If we’re talking US Women’s Open winners then this year’s champion seems to make sense, especially given that there’s more to YUKA SASO’s case than her stunning triumph at San Francisco’s Olympic Club in June.

• Click here to back Saso with Sky Bet

In her next appearance she got off to a sluggish start in the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, but her new status in the world of golf must have been slightly bewildering and to close with a 67 for T21st counts as a decent effort. Moreover, she backed it up with tied fifth in the Marathon Classic and then teamed up with Minjee Lee for another tied fifth in the Dow Lakes Invitational.

Lee used that experience as a springboard for major success and Saso will have enjoyed congratulating her partner (and also seeing her hero Rory McIlroy at the weekend). But beyond being a major winner – a relevant major winner, too – who has played decently since that breakthrough, she also has lots of experience playing in Japan. Moreover, it is winning experience because she claimed back-to-back titles last August on the JLPGA.

I also just consider her recent experience at LPGA: top 10 early in the week at last year’s US Women’s Open, finished T13th; T12th at halfway in this year’s ANA Inspiration; halfway leader and tied sixth in the LOTTE Championship; and then those four results in the last few weeks. It’s only seven starts, but its a damn decent log book and she also has experience of winning the golf competition at a multi-sport event, claiming individual and team gold at the 2018 Asian Games in Jakarta.

I leapt beyond the favourites for the first pick, but did so because Saso’s is the price I consider best value and I remain wary of the top of the market, as I have done in many recent majors. Nelly Korda has to be respected but her price is very short, so too Jin Young Ko given her poor effort in Evian, and while I admire Park that lack of a big win in five years puts me off. Sei Young and Hyo Joo Kim, plus Lydia Ko and Danielle Kang are also short for their conversion rates. Ariya Jutanugarn came mighty close to selection as the second pick, but the majority of books have her price about right (to have quoted the one exception as I write feels a little fraudulent).

So her compatriot PATTY TAVATANAKIT is next pick. She first hinted at her capacity to thrive at elite level when tied fifth at the 2018 US Women’s Open at Shoal Creek and much about that week was similar to this: the yardage (long), the thickly tree-lined visuals, the bentgrass greens, the sticky rough and the spongy fairways. A big difference is that Shoal Creek was so wet that week it’s something of a surprise shoals of fish weren’t swimming down the fairways, but I like how much was alike.

• Click here to back Tavatanakit with Sky Bet

Three second-tier wins in 2019 earned Tavatanakit promotion to the LPGA and this year the big-hitter has truly blossomed. In fact, among her 10 strokeplay starts she’s been second after 54 holes in the first, third at the same stage in the second, won the fourth (a major), was third in her sixth and seventh (leading more or less all week in the latter), in the top 10 most of the week in her penultimate start and fifth last time out.

In all, in five of those 10 starts she has been top three with 18 holes to play. She’s also made the quarter-final stage of the Bank of Hope Matchplay and her last start of 2020 saw her open with a 69 for tied fifth. She’s contending lots and conditions this week are going to be right up her street. I also like that, in addition to the Shoal Creek top five and ANA Inspiration triumph in April, she was third in extreme heat in Singapore – because it’s going to be hot again this week.

I’m also going to suggest backing the Thai golfer in the first-round leader market. In those 10 starts so far this year she’s had one solo and one shared first-round lead and has seven times been in the top 20 after round one. You can also throw in a best-of-the-day 65 in round three in her last start and the fact that she’s ended 16 of her last 43 strokeplay rounds in the top five. She likes to go low and she likes being on leaderboards.

• Click here to back Tavatanakit for the first-round lead with Sky Bet

Posted at 1355 BST on 02/08/21

More Olympics tips

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• Boxing
• GB medals and other sports
• Men's cycling road race
• Triathlon
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