Football betting tips: Premier League
14:00 - C Palace vs Newcastle
2pts Axel Disasi to commit 1+ foul at 5/4 (bet365)
14:00 - Hull vs Brentford
1pt Mohamed Belloumi 1+ shot on target outside the box at 12/5 (bet365)
14:00 - Liverpool vs Brighton
2pts Liverpool to commit 12+ fouls at 5/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
14:00 - Man Utd vs Bournemouth
1.5pts Bournemouth draw no bet at 7/5 (General)
16:30 - Sunderland vs Leeds
2.5pts Jayden Bogle 1+ total shot at 4/5 (bet365)
*All player bets bar Belloumi selected with super sub offer
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Crystal Palace were well and truly pumped last week by Brighton, losing 5-0 at the Amex, and welcome Newcastle on the back of three away games including two on the continent, travelling back from Turkiye on Thursday night after a 2-2 draw with Besiktas.
Newcastle head south in terrible form, winning just one of five which came at home to Hull, as Mathias Jaissle's side's results have started matching performances after a brief period of positive variance to start the campaign.
The Magpies have been pummelled in their last two away games, losing 4-1 to both Leeds and Coventry, so are easily swerved as favourites on Sunday, though Palace's defensive issues are enough to leave the hosts alone in the main markets. It worth mentioning that these two sides sit in the bottom three on underlying data this season.
Instead, the bet that appeals is our good old friend AXEL DISASI TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL at 5/4. We were on him the last time he featured in the Premier League for 1+ and 2+, and he duly delivered in the first half, with his second foul seeing him sent off - he's been suspended ever since.
But, while he's been suspended in the league, he has played three times on the continent and delivered the proposed bet in all three. So, that means across all league and Europa League outings this season he has committed at least one foul in five of six.
On Sunday he'll likely be tasked with containing Yoane Wissa and/or William Osula - two very different prospects. Wissa is a tricky customer who has so far drawn 1.77 fouls per 90, dropping in as well as spinning in behind, while Osula is a direct, physical threat who will threaten Disasi in behind while also rough him up.
All told the price for a clumsy defender with a good track record to commit just one foul is too big and should be snapped up. There is a chance he doesn't start after playing 90 minutes in midweek, but I suspect he does given how lightly raced he is this season and Palace's centre-back injuries.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Hull vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Golf
- Live odds, form and stats
Hull's promising early start to the season has petered out a bit thanks to a winless run of five games, with their lates defeat at Fulham unquestionably their worst display of the campaign to date, losing the shot count 18-5 and the xG battle 1.38 - 0.16.
The Tigers are still unbeaten at home as they welcome a good Brentford side, though the Bees are hurt by the absence of their two starting central midfielders after both were sent off last weekend. Keith Andrews' side are still tempting at 8/11 given their strength in depth, but I'm expecting a reaction of sorts from the hosts.
They have to be better than last week and they should create a few more chances at home. I think the price about their Algerian winger MOHAMED BELLOUMI to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX makes plenty of appeal.
Belloumi has been a shoot-on-sight merchant this term, averaging a whopping 3.17 shots per 90 in the top flight, and faces a Brentford team who are much more leaky shot-wise away from home, shipping 52 attempts in three away outings this term (17.3).
Now I'm not saying Hull are going to fire off that many shots, but even if they get to double digits I'd fancy Belloumi to have tried his luck from distance a few times.
10 of his 18 attempts this season have come from distance, with four hitting the target, giving us an average of 0.70 shots on target outside the box this season, making the 12/5 seem massive, with the bet landing in three of his six starts.
Score prediction: Hull 1-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Liverpool vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
This is probably the best game on Sunday between two sides with top four ambitions. Liverpool have made a steady enough start to the season but their lack of squad depth has been evident and may become even more prominent as the season develops.
The Reds needed a Brentford red card on the stroke of half-time last week to turn that game around, with the Bees 1-0 up at the break and Liverpool going on to win 2-1, a third win of the league season (W3-D3-L1). Iraola made changes in midweek and it nearly backfired as they were 2-0 down to Villarreal before again coming from behind to win.
Vulnerabilities are there, and Brighton are a dangerous team who can exploit weaknesses. The Seagulls have made a remarkable start to the season, winning five of seven and only losing once, with that defeat coming at Stamford Bridge.
Fabian Hurzeler's side have been scoring for fun in the early parts of the season, but have a rest disadvantage having played in Czechia on Thursday, though it wouldn't be a surprise to see them go to Anfield and win.
The bet here though centres around the hosts' fouling ability, which is a trademark of Andoni Iraola's high-press and something that he has brought with him from Bournemouth when looking at the early season numbers.
Across his time on the south coast his side committed an average of 13.1 fouls per game, and he went to Anfield to take over a team playing a very different style of football, one that was averaging just 10.1 fouls per game.
His new team has taken no time to adapt to his methods on the foul front, with the Reds averaging 13.9 fouls per game so far in the Premier League, so the fact we can back LIVERPOOL TO COMMIT 12+ FOULS at 5/4 makes it a strong bet.
The Reds have covered this line in six of seven league games thus far, and I can only assume that this bet is such a big price due to Brighton's fouls won numbers which aren't great on paper having won the fifth fewest fouls in the league.
But, I think the schedule has had something to do with that, as they have so far not played many teams who press as ferociously as Liverpool.
Aston Villa may be up there but they were reduced to 10-men early and went 4-0 down which meant the fouls were reduced, Chelsea sat back at Stamford Bridge and played on the counter-attack, which is the same way Sunderland and Coventry tried to play, a style that does lead to fewer fouls.
Leeds did get in Brighton's face and try to disrupt them and committed 15 fouls, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Liverpool hit a big tally here given their intensity out of possession under Iraola, whose Bournemouth side committed 16 fouls against Brighton as hosts last season and 13 the season before.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Will defeat here be the end for Michael Carrick? Well, the bookmakers think so, with Carrick now the odds-on favourite to be the next manager sacked after yet another defeat in midweek. And for those interested, Eddie Howe was the early favourite to replace him should he get the boot.
The performance against Como was dreadful and suggested that the players aren't taking in whatever messages Carrick is sending, and as we know with this group of players, if they want a manager gone, they can easily stink the gaff out to make sure it happens.
Manchester United have won just twice in 11 games all season, beating the might of Ipswich and Sabah, losing five times across all competitions including the earliest possible Carabao Cup exit. Now they face a Bournemouth team who look to be hitting their stride with three straight wins to nil, the latest being against Ruben Amorim's new side Milan.
In fact, look closer at Bournemouth's start to the season and it actually looks pretty good despite the narrative. In 11 games they have lost just three times, with those defeats coming at the Etihad against Manchester City, at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea and at home to former boss Andoni Iraola's new Liverpool side.
So I don't see why Manchester United should be 6/5 to win this, that still seems too short to me especially with the accumulating injuries and the dysfunction all over the pitch. At the prices, BOURNEMOUTH DRAW NO BET makes plenty of appeal at 7/5.
Two wins all season for United, just three defeats so far in 11 all against likely top five teams for Bournemouth, I would be surprised if we didn't at least get a push here with the draw a real runner.
Data-wise the Cherries rank as a top five team so far this season, averaging 1.76 xGF and 1.19 xGA per game, while United's data looks better than it actually is thanks to one thrashing of Ipswich in which they generated 4.77 xGF.
Remove that game and Carrick's side have averaged just 1.14 xGF per game, showing a stale attacking process, while defensively they have allowed 1.11 xGA per game. It's fine margin stuff which, again, means the draw could be a real runner.
But at this moment in time, I think Bournemouth are a better team, are in a better place and get another positive result at Old Trafford. They have won on two of their last three visits, both 3-0 scorelines, while last season we witnessed a bonkers 4-4 draw.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Sunderland vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy has covered this game in more detail here, taking Leeds to win alongside a few cards and I fully agree given Sunderland's issues.
For me though, the standout bet is to back JAYDEN BOGLE 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 4/5.
Bogle has been very impressive so far this season from an attacking standpoint, getting into dangerous positions regularly and taking plenty of shots.
He's fired seven in his last five starts, with the proposed bet landing in all five, which is unsurprising given the amount of touches in the opposition box he manages.
With Sunderland lacking a few key defenders and conceding plenty of shots (14.6 per game), Bogle looks overpriced for just one shot here.
Score prediction: Sunderland 0-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
All odds correct at 16:30 BST (23/10/26)
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