Football betting tips: Premier League
12:30 - Aston Villa vs Manchester City
1.5pts Matty Cash to be carded at 3/1 (William Hill)
1pt Marc Guehi to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
15:00 - Arsenal vs Everton
2pts Under 2.5 goals at evens (General)
0.5pt Arsenal to win and Under 2.5 goals at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
15:00 - Coventry vs Fulham
2pts Brandon Thomas-Asante to win 2+ fouls at 6/5 (Betfair)
17:30 - Chelsea vs Tottenham
1.5pts Moises Caicedo to commit 2+ fouls at 23/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Mohammed Kudus to win 2+ fouls at 6/4 (bet365)
*All prices chosen with Super Sub bar Caicedo fouls
Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
It appears as though Aston Villa have hit their stride after a sluggish start to the campaign. After winning just one of their opening five across all competitions, Unai Emery's men have rattled off five wins in their last six, going unbeaten in that time.
They are in a good spot to welcome a Manchester City side who have taken maximum points in the Premier League so far this term, though Enzo Maresca's side have shown some real defensive vulnerabilities of late.
Ipswich scored twice at the Etihad last weekend (1.86 xG), PSG netted four times (1.83) before that while before the international break Sunderland found the net three times (3.57) too, so there is every reason Villa should be optimistic of taking the first points off City this season.
While the home result was tempting, I've settle on cards being the play in the lunchtime kick-off, with some good match-ups and a decent referee appointment in Peter Bankes who has flashed 4.0 cards per game so far this season.
First up, and my favourite bet, is MATTY CASH TO BE CARDED, with it expected that he'll be up against Jeremy Doku. Cash has already been carded three times this season in just five starts, and now comes up against the foul-winning machine that is Doku.
The Belgian winger has played a bit-part so far this season but should get a run in the team given the injury to Antoine Semenyo, and comes into this game having drawn 3.75 fouls per 90. He'll cause a lot of problems for Cash, who does tend to struggle against direct dribblers.
We'll also chance a Manchester City centre-back given how frequently opposing CB's have been booked against Villa this season, with MARC GUEHI getting the vote TO BE CARDED at 4/1 - he is a bigger price elsewhere but we are locking in the super sub offering.
At least one centre-back has been booked in all of Villa's last five league games, unsurprisingly since Nicolas Jackson has joined the club. The Colombian is an absolute handful as a physical, powerful striker who also loves to run, be that in behind or down the channels, which gives centre-backs numerous headaches.
Guehi will have his work cut out on Saturday, and he has looked poor in recent weeks, with the first Ipswich goal coming down his side last time out, likely due to overload.
So far this season for club and country he has committed 1.11 fouls per 90, making at least one foul in six of his last seven and 2+ in four of those, he looks a prime candidate for more fouls and hopefully a card on Saturday.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Arsenal vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Arsenal did their usual last weekend, winning 1-0 in an ugly, defensive game at Nottingham Forest. Given their attacking injuries, we may see more of those performances in the next few weeks.
Bukayo Saka was the latest forward player to pick up an injury in midweek, joining Chrsitos Tzolis on the sidelines, meaning the Gunners' options out wide are limited. Expect Mikel Arteta's side to play through their defence and hope to grab one goal, which may be enough on Saturday.
Arsenal to win to nil is 13/10 here as they welcome Everton, while the WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS is 5/2, which is the selection here, with us needing a 1-0 or 2-0 Arsenal win for a payout.
The hosts will be lacking a bit of bite, Everton provide a decent defensive unit that should frustrate them, yet the Toffees' attack has struggled this term, scoring just 1.14 goals per game.
Away from home David Moyes' men this term needed a last minute goal to rescue a point in a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, failed to score in a 0-0 draw at Tottenham before firing twice at Hull, but last weekend's display at home to Chelsea is concerning, managing just six shots and 0.43 xG.
The UNDER 2.5 GOALS is worth backing on its own to a bigger stake too given everything discussed, with even money simply too big. Five of Everton's seven this season have gone under, while all of the last four head-to-heads have gone under too.
It would be a surprise if this meeting doesn't go the same way.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Coventry vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Alvaro Arbeloa picked up his first league win as Fulham boss last weekend, beating Hull in a nervy 1-0 home win, and this weekend completes the successive clashes against newly promoted sides, with the Cottagers so far winning one and losing one.
Coventry were solid enough on Monday, and their performances since the shaky start - which did come against the current top three in the league - is starting to look like more of a case of tough schedule than poor displays.
This should be a competitive game on Saturday, and one bet has caught my attention in a big way. BRANDON THOMAS-ASANTE has been drawing an awful lot of fouls so far this season, and is 6/5 TO WIN 2+ FOULS this weekend which has to be backed.
He has started four times in the league and this bet has won in all four, while across all of his minutes he's drawn an average of 3.41 fouls per 90.
For those wanting to climb the ladder, it's 7/2 for 3+ with super sub which should go close, but we'll stick to the two for this week given only one of his four starts has come at home, with the big foul drawing games coming on the road.
Score prediction: Coventry 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Chelsea vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Tottenham finally won a Premier League football match this season at the seventh time of trying, beating Coventry on Monday in a game they again struggled to carve out good scoring chances - the story of their season so far.
Defensively they have been solid enough, ranking fifth for xGA (9.5), but there is a lot of improvement needed in attack, ranking third worst for xGF (7.5). Their xG per shot of 0.07 is the lowest in the league too.
Chelsea's defence had looked all over the place prior to the international break, but the return of MOISES CAICEDO to the base of midfield has tightened them up, with the Blues conceding just 0.51 goals and 0.94 xGA while he's been on the pitch. He's a difference maker, but he will have his hands full on Saturday with Spurs' number 10s.
On Monday it was James Maddison who was given the nod to start, and he drew four fouls in 69 minutes, picking up from where he left off before a lengthy injury break, averaging 3.17 fouls won per 90 in 24/25.
Whether it's him or former Chelsea man Conor Gallagher (3.14 fouls won p90 this season), Caicedo will be up against it and looks a good price at 23/20 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS in a derby that tends to escalate. Caicedo has averaged 2.06 fouls committed per 90 so far this season and 1.73 per 90 last campaign.
My favourite bet in this game though is MOHAMMED KUDUS TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 6/4. The Ghanaian looks revitalised after a lengthy injury lay off and has looked sharp as he's been reintroduced to the line-up by Roberto De Zerbi.
He's a top level ball carrier who likes to commit his opponent, and as well as having a good record for drawing fouls, he has a lovely match-up on Saturday down the Chelsea left.
Kudus has started only two league games so far, winning one and two fouls respectively, but across all of his Premier League minutes he's averaging 2.93 fouls won per 90, with last season's 0.87 looking like an anomaly of a campaign for a top foul drawer.
In 24/25 while at West Ham, Kudus drew 2.21 fouls per 90 and the season before hit 2.72. His likely opponent on Saturday, should Chelsea stick with a back four like they played last week at Everton, will be Jorrel Hato, who is clumsy to say the least when fronted up.
I also like the fact Morgan Rogers will be in Kudus' vicinity, with the Englishman a very cynical fouler capable of getting stuck in where required. He's averaged 1.17 fouls per 90 this term and ranks highly among wingers/forwards for defensive contributions.
Here's hoping this is another of those Chelsea-Spurs games that gets very physical with plenty of niggly fouls as the teams get stuck into eachother. Tottenham are one of the best teams in the league for fouls and fouls drawn, which hopefully helps us here.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
All odds correct at 17:15 BST (22/10/26)
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