Football betting tips: Super Sunday
2pts Leeds to win at 31/20 (bet365, Betfair)
1pt A red card in the match at 4/1 (bet365, William Hill)
0.5pt Both teams to get a red card at 60/1 (William Hill)
1pt Trai Hume to be carded at 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Ao Tanaka to be carded at 17/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Hume and Tanaka card double at 18/1 (William Hill)
We’re not even out of October but this feels like a pretty pivotal game for both sides.
In the Premier League, Sunderland have only won once all season (D1 L5), losing their last four on the spin against Arsenal, Manchester City, Brighton and Bournemouth.
With the exception of the Cherries, the Black Cats have played each of the top three across that sample but the nature of the defeat on the South Coast and the fallout after was pretty damning.
Nordi Mukiele said: "Maybe we have become arrogant.” It was part of a frank and brutally honest post-game interview.
Maybe he is right or maybe the data has just caught up with them.
Last season they finished 17th on xPTS, relying heavily on home form, character and their never say die attitude. Not bad traits by any means, but still.
It is also worth noting Sunderland played away in the Europa League on Thursday and their opponents come into this fresh.
It’s a big game for the visitors as well. They have only lost once this season and that was at title holders Arsenal, where the hosts came from behind.
LEEDS have won twice this campaign but like last season are drawing too many games they should perhaps be winning (D4) as they struggle to capitalise on strong performances.
They are outperforming their xGA tally (-3.7) but that is a consequence of signing a top class keeper in James Trafford. And, with their other metrics on a par with their actual output, I am happy to back Daniel Farke’s side TO WIN at the prices.
It is worth noting Sunderland have some issues in defence.
Dan Ballard is injured, Kevin Danso is suspended and there’s rumours of Omar Alderete picking up a knock as well.
In terms of other bets, it is worth noting the best referee in the Premier League for cards in charge of this one so the card markets are worth a look.
Stuart Attwell has brandished 26 cards in four top flight appearances this term and over his top flight career, he's flashed 25 red cards in 247 appearances, five coming in his last 30.
So at 4/1 and 60/1, I’ll take a swing at A RED CARD IN THE MATCH and BOTH TEAMS TO GET A RED CARD.
Quotes of 7/2 about TRAI HUME TO BE CARDED also appeals.
He is yet to be booked in the Premier League this season but picked up nine last term and has two in three Europa League appearances.
Plus, Hume should be opposing Gabriel Gudmundsson who draws 1.2 fouls a game.
Another standout price is AO TANAKA at 17/4 TO BE CARDED.
Tanaka has been booked twice in his last three taking his Leeds card total to 11.
At 18/1 with William Hill, the CARD DOUBLE appeals as we look to cash in on this promising referee appointment.
Odds correct 15:45 BST (22/10/26)
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