Jimmy The Punt's tips: EFL predictions, outright, top goalscorer and handicap best bets for 2026/27 season

Football betting tips: EFL

Treble and 4-fold

4pts Millwall top eight (Championship), Plymouth top six (League One), Barnet top seven (League Two) at 10/1 (General)

1.5pt Millwall top eight (Championship), Plymouth top six (League One), Barnet top seven (League Two), Boreham Wood top three (National League) at 28/1 (Sky Bet)

Top Goalscorers

1pt e.w. Richard Kone (QPR) to be Championship top goalscorer at 66/1 (General 1/4 1-4)

1pt e.w. Owen Oseni (Plymouth) to be League One top goalscorer at 33/1 (General 1/4 1-4)

1pt e.w. Josh Stones (York) to be League Two top goalscorer at 40/1 (General 1/4 1-4)

0.5pt (total stake) e.w. Kone, Oseni & Stones top goalscorer at 93,397/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power 1/4 1-4)

Season Handicaps

1pt e.w. Bromley (+33) to win League One Handicap at 18/1 (bet365 1/4 1-4)

1pt e.w. Cheltenham (+23) to win League Two handicap at 18/1 (bet365 1/4 1-4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Sunday 18 July 2026. Spain were crowned world champions for the second time in their history.

Leandro Paredes had barely finished throttling that poor Spaniard at full time when it dawned on me. The English Football Leagues starts up again within a month.

Better get back to the bread and butter.

At this point, I am obliged to remind you of last season's outright success, culminating in around +45pts profit. Apologies.

I've got bets from the Championship, League One and League Two for the 2026/27 campaign, focusing on the play-off picture in each division, the top goalscorer market and the handicaps.

The play-offs

MILLWALL’s price TO FINISH IN THE TOP EIGHT in the Championship is too big.

Tom explained the rule change here but to get a general 7/4 for a side to finish in the top third of a division they finished third in last season, only a point behind second, is puzzling.

There are nine teams ahead of Millwall in the betting. West Ham, Wolves, Middlesbrough and Burnley all heavily odds-on, all hard to begrudge. Southampton are a touch longer before you get to Norwich and Birmingham at evens.

Even with a -4 points deduction to start the season as a result of 'spygate', Saints should rally as they lean into their role as pantomime villains.

The Canaries are fancied to go well this term under Philippe Clement too, with only four sides taking more points in the second tier since he took charge last November - two of those went up and another was Millwall - while they’ve also made some shrewd signings in the transfer window.

Birmingham’s away form will need to improve if they are going to challenge the play-offs after they managed just five wins on the road last term, averaging less than a point a match.

That then leaves Sheffield United (6/5) and Wrexham (5/4) ahead of Millwall in this market. The latter massively over performed their underlying data, ranking 15th on expected points, and the Blades are at a bit of a crossroads.

Chris Wilder has lost his right hand man Alan Knill, who’s gone to Huddersfield. Star man Gus Hamer is attracting Premier League interest and the squad needs some fine tuning.

Data wise, Millwall ranked 8th last term - perfect - and their business this summer has been good.

They’ve lost a few players and have plenty of minutes to replace, but looking at the departures, almost every one of the players has dropped down a level from the Den which is pretty telling.

In terms of the imports, the Lions have nitpicked some talents from the third tier, Jenson Metcalfe and Kyrell Lisbie. Mark Sykes looks a shrewd free transfer from Bristol City and they’ve splurged some cash on some attackers from the French second tier and Belgium.

So, Alex Neil’s refreshed the squad and he’s confident there'll be more faces through the door before the window shuts.

All things considered, Millwall appeal at the prices.

November 11, 2025 was a big day for PLYMOUTH. It was the day they appointed Derek Adams as their Director of Football.

This would be the start of his second spell at the club having previously got the sack in 2019 after four years in the dugout.

It looked like an ominous appointment for Tom Cleverley - or so I thought.

Adams was brought in to “provide strategic guidance” - whatever that means - with the club rooted to the bottom of the table with 13 points from 15 games.

I’ve seen this before, Cleverley's going to get ushered out, Adams reluctantly takes temporary charge, and when things improve, he takes over permanently. Seamlessly and subtly.

How wrong I was.

Since that brainwave, the Pilgrims took 60 points from 31 League One games (third most), scored the third most goals over that sample and conceded the fourth fewest.

For context, their points per game average went from 0.86 to 1.94, goals scored from 1.2 to 1.84 and goals conceded from 1.86 to 1.13.

Heading into the new campaign, their price for a TOP 6 FINISH seems like a bit of a no brainer - although Tom Carnduff is on the same bet so draw your own conclusions.

The only real negative is the loss of last season's 18-goal top goalscorer Lorent Tolaj to Bristol City, but Aribim Pepple remains at the club after he netted 16 goals last term, plus Owen Oseni looks poised for a breakout campaign - more on him later.

Down in the fourth tier, BARNET struggled to adapt to the physicality of League Two at the start of last season but finished the campaign like a train.

Across their opening eight fixtures, the Bees took 10 points (W3 D1 L3) with a goal difference of -3, losing their opening three games. Compare that with their last eight games (W7 D1 L0) where they took 22 points and went unbeaten with a goal-difference of +13 and it's clear lessons had been learned.

In fact, eventual champions Bromley were the only side they dropped points to in that run, and if that end of season form bleeds into the new campaign, they could justify their quotes as one of the divisions favourites.

Consistency will be key, because a broader look at last season reveals it to be one of two halves.

Across their opening 23 games, they ranked 12th, taking 32 points (W8 D8 L7). In the second half of the season, their tally of 44 points was the 5th most, ahead of Bromley (1st), Notts Country (play-off winners), level with Cambridge (3rd) and only two shy of MK Dons (2nd).

So, they are certainly trending in the right direction.

The Bees' underlying data was excellent too, with the 4th most expected points (xP) total over the season.

The slight negatives come in the form of their departures, with them losing Callum Stead to Cambridge and Ryan Glover to Stockport this summer, with both integral last season. Stead finished as the Bees top scorer (13) and Glover started every league fixture, chipping in with 11 goal contributions.

Replacing the pair will be no mean feat but in Dean Brennan they have a top manager who is more than capable of remoulding the squad to improve on last season's eighth place finish.

At a shade of odds on, backing them TO FINISH IN THE TOP SEVEN appeals, and we'll combine it with the other two selections for a TREBLE at a shade under 11/1.

I’ll also be throwing in BOREHAM WOOD TO FINISH IN THE TOP THREE in the National League at 6/4 for good measure. The 4-FOLD paying out at a touch over 28/1.

Generally fancied as the outright pick in the fifth tier, not least by Lewis Tomlinson in his Non-League outright preview, the Wood are a much more palatable price than 5/2 favourites Carlisle.

Expected to be the beneficiaries of stability, last season's play-off finalists have kept the core of their squad, swatting away a couple of eye-watering bids for Abdul Abdulmalik.

And with the resourceful Luke Garrard in the dugout, they’ll fancy their chances of pushing on from last term's success and perhaps could even top the pile this season.

Top goalscorers

For the 2026 World Cup, I touted Darwin Nunez, Luis Suarez and Luis Diaz to finish in the top goalscorer market. They combined to score a grand total of one goal.

So, take these picks with a pinch of salt, because my judgement was off over the summer. That said, the domestic punts haven’t been too bad, albeit very hit and miss.

In the EFL last season, Callum Stead got touted at 66s (13 goals) and Sammie Szmodics at 16s (3). The season before, it was Emmanuel Latte Lath at 14s (10), Sam Smith at 28s (18) and Ronan Curtis at 150s (5).

That’s 10pts staked, 8pts returned, so -2pts down. And the success - if you can call it that - seems to be coming from the mid-to-upper range prices rather than the favourites.

And with that in mind, I’ll resist the urge to tout the shorties. Tempting as the 12s about Taty Castellanos in the Championship, 9/1 Aribim Pepple in League One and 4/1 Macaulay Langstaff in League Two are.

Besides, with the exception of the Langstaff who's already jumped ship this summer, there’s always the risk that these players will switch clubs at the start of the campaign, or even half-way through it. That’s what happened with Szmodics last season and Latte Lath the campaign before.

Anyway, here’s the picks for the new season. One from each league, each way singles and a shot at TRIXIE glory.

Championship top goalscorers

• 25/26 - Zan Vipotnik, Swansea: 23
• 24/25 - Joel Piroe, Leeds: 19
• 23/24 - Sam Szomdics, Blackburn: 27
• 22/23 - Chuba Akpom, Middlesbrough: 28
• 21/22 - Aleksandar Mitrovic, Fulham: 43
• 20/21 - Ivan Toney, Brentford: 31

RICHARD KONE’s price at 66/1 to finish as the CHAMPIONSHIP’s TOP GOALSCORER is the standout for me.

Plucked from obscurity by Wycombe ahead of the 2023/24 campaign in League One, he netted three goals in his debut season (0.42 goals per 90).

The following term he bagged 18 to finish joint-third in the third tier's goalscoring charts. Interestingly, 16 of those goals came before the end of January which makes me wonder if he begrudged the clubs' decision not to sell him in the winter transfer window.

Kone got his move to the Championship the following summer. QPR won the race to secure his services and he adapted well to the jump up in class, bagging 10 goals in 43 appearances (0.27 goals per 90).

Now with a taste for the level, his price certainly provides some interest with the each way terms offering paying out 1/4 odds down to four places.

For context, 14 goals has been enough to secure some place money across the last two campaigns.

League One top goalscorers

• 25/26 - Dom Ballard, Leyton Orient: 23
• 24/25 - Charlie Kelman, Leyton Orient: 21
• 23/24 - Alfie May, Charlton: 23
• 22/23 - Conor Chaplin, Ipswich & Jonson Clarke-Harris, Peterborough: 26
• 21/22 - Will Keane, Wigan: 26
• 20/21 - Jonson Clarke-Harris, Peterborough: 31

I fancy Plymouth to go well this season in LEAGUE ONE. Since Derek Adams was appointed in a senior role in mid-November, they have netted the third most goals in the division (57) which was an average of 1.83 per game.

Across the whole campaign, the Pilgrims had two talismanic figures. Lorent Tolaj scored 18 goals and Aribim Pepple 16.

The former has since been signed by Bristol City in the Championship and the latter is a measly 10/1 to finish as League One’s top goalscorer this term who has also been linked with a move away.

This has to bring OWEN OSENI into consideration at 33/1 to finish as the divisions TOP GOALSCORER - or 50/1 if you can get on with BetVictor.

He finished last season with seven goals in 27 league appearances (0.53 goals per 90) but crucially started half of his side's last eight league games, scoring three times.

Oseni’s breakout season came in 2024/25 with Gateshead where he scored 12 times in twice as many appearances (0.64 goals per 90) earning him a move to St Mirren, but he never really acclimatised to the Scottish Premiership.

He moved back down south ahead of the start of last season and played a bit-part role at the Pilgrims but looks primed to feature heavily this campaign, and, having made his debut for Nigeria over the summer, he must feel confident of making his mark on the division.

In League One, 16 goals has been enough to finish in the top four in the goalscoring charts for each of the last three seasons, 17 in all of the last four and 20 in all of the last six seasons.

League Two top goalscorers

• 25/26 - Aaron Drinan, Swindon: 22
• 24/25 - Michael Cheek, Bromley: 25
• 23/24 - Macaulay Langstaff, Notts County: 28
• 22/23 - Andy Cook, Bradford: 28
• 21/22 - Dominic Telford, Newport: 25
• 20/21 - Paul Mullin, Cambridge: 32

York’s decision to part ways with Stuart Maynard and replace him with Scott Lindsey ahead of the new season is enough to make you think twice about their price to win LEAGUE TWO, but their frontmen are certainly worth a look in the top goalscorer market.

Ollie Pearce is the main man, netting 65 league goals across the last two seasons, but it’s his foil who interests me at 40/1.

JOSH STONES’ 103rd-minute goal in the final game of the season clinched the title. It was his 18th of the campaign (joint-6th most in the National League) and his rough and ready style could take the fourth tier by storm.

The Minstermen appear all too aware of his potential, recently tying him down to a long-term contract to fend off League One interest, but he had to bide his time at the start of last season.

Stones only started two of York’s opening 15 league games heading into their FA Cup first round clash with Barnsley.

It appeared to be a case of Stones or Pearce up until that point. But at Oakwell in the cup, Maynard went for both and York’s number nine bullied the Reds defence, netting the opening goal of the game.

From that point, he was a regular and scored 16 goals across the next 27 league appearances.

Across the last five seasons in League Two, 17 goals has been enough for place money and if Stones can adapt as quickly as I expect to the jump up in level, he could easily replicate last season's success.

And he completes the TRIXIE which pays out at 93,397/1.

Handicaps

The HANDICAPS, AKA the over achievers market.

You got an opinion, a hot take, a real rogue shout but don’t actually think they’ll win the league, or finish in the play-offs, or the price of a top half finish isn’t big enough?

Well, this is the market for you my friend, and BROMLEY are the poster boys.

Andy Woodman’s side scooped up this accolade last season on route to the League Two title, while they won the coveted handicap table in the season before too during in their EFL debut.

Now the Ravens are in uncharted waters - League One - but they have nothing to fear, certainly not relegation, although the bookies think otherwise, quoting 8/11 for a swift return to the fourth tier.

Bromley’s gaffer and heart-throb, Andy Woodman, has had his side on a steady upward trajectory ever since he left his post as head goalkeeper coach at Arsenal for Hayes Lane back in 2021.

In four National League seasons, Woodman’s side won the FA Trophy, finished in the play-offs three times and never dropped outside the top 10.

After securing promotion via the play-offs, they finished in the top half during their maiden EFL campaign, only four points off the play-offs, and followed that up with a title in the second season.

As Woodman is at pains to admit, he doesn’t want his side to play football - in fact he wants the opposite - and a huge importance is placed on set pieces.

Woodman’s also utilised the club's location on the outskirts of London to attract quality, albeit under-appreciated players, and they made Hayes Lane a real fortress last season.

The result? A direct, no nonsense side with real quality who thrive in punching well above their weight.

Last term, his side scored 31 times from dead ball situations - six more than they scored from open play - and averaged the third lowest possession in League Two (44%).

Bromley also went unbeaten at home (W14 D9 L0), taking the joint-most points in the division.

With a +33 point handicap, realistically Woodman’s side would need to at least hit the 60 point mark for an each way payout, but as recently promoted sides have shown, this is achievable.

Of the last 40 teams to get promoted from League Two, 16 have gone on to get 60 points or better which includes half of the last 10 title winners.

Last season, two of the four promoted clubs managed it, albeit both are bigger in stature than Bromley. Bradford finished on 77 points and Doncaster hit 60. In 2024/25, Stockport and Wrexham both finished in the top six and in 2023/24, Leyton Orient, Stevenage and Northampton hit 60 points.

Into League Two then which is generally the toughest division in the EFL to get a read on, especially this year.

In previous seasons, there’s been an obvious powerhouse. Stockport, Wrexham and MK Dons all spring to mind.

But when the bookies released the outright market ahead of the 2026/27 season, it lacked a definite favourite and it made the upcoming campaign all the more intriguing.

In the last few weeks, Salford have muscled their way to the top of the market with the signings of Luke Molyneux and Macauley Langstaff, which border on the ridiculous for the level. Money has come for them and they are the ones to beat.

But the jury is still out for me. The sacking of Karl Robinson seemed hasty and his replacement, Australian Peter Cklamovski, is very much an unknown quantity.

It’s why the big head starts on the handicap are calling me. In a league where 1.9 points per game usually sets the pace, the favourites in the market are there to be shot at.

Next in the betting is Bristol Rovers, led by the slimline, wily Steve Evans. They are fancied to go well this season but I wonder if too much has been made of the Gas’ strong end to the last campaign, plus, his last stint at Rotherham makes me think football has grown tired of his bullish techniques.

I like Barnet’s chances of a successful season, which is why we are on them for a top seven finish, but I think there is a better options in this handicap market.

York are well backed financially and have quality within their squad, but the the change in the dugout is enough to put me off.

Maynard guided them to a record points tally in the National League and his dismissal seems to have angered and confused their fans in equal measure. The appointment of Scott Lindsey has done little to calm these emotions either, with his successful season at Crawley appearing to be the outlier in an otherwise poor managerial career.

So, the bet.

CHELTENHAM look massively underrated this season at 66/1 to win the title, they are the same price as Accrington Stanley and the joint-second longest of any fourth tier side, ahead of only Newport at 100/1.

Before Steve Cotterill returned to Whaddon Road last season, the Robins were rock bottom after 10 games, taking just four points (W1 D1 L8).

If the season started at the end of September when he took charge, Cheltenham would have finished in 13th with their haul of 48 points from 36 games.

The loss of loanee Isaac Hutchinson is an obvious issue to be resolved, he had a hand in 34% of their league goals last term, but there’s plenty of time to replace him in the aggregate this summer, and if the Robins can build on the momentum of last campaign - they only lost five of their last 17 games - we could get a run for our money here with Cheltenham given +23 points on the handicap.

Odds correct at 15:00 BST (06/08/26)

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