- Jimmy's Punt 24/25: Staked 362.65pts | Returned 355.39pts | P/L -7.26pts | ROI -2%
Football betting tips: EFL outrights
Championship
8pts Ipswich to be promoted at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt e.w Sammie Szmodics top goalscorer at 16/1 (bet365 1/4, 1,2,3,4)
League One
8pts Stockport top 6 finish at 11/8 (bet365)
League Two
8pts MK Dons top 3 finish at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pts e.w. Bromley (+22 handicap) to win League Two at 15/1 (bet365 1/4, 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w Callum Stead top goalscorer at 66/1 (Betfred 1/4, 1,2,3,4,5)
I am going to be frank, the overall loss I have tallied up across the last three seasons is embarrassing.
You cannot control the outcome in this game, you just have to bet on the value, but -86.83pts tells a dire story and has to be a reflection on some brash tipping along with some bad luck.
Jimmy's tipping record
- 2024/25: -45.95 (ROI: -6%)
- 2023/24: -97.36pts (ROI -17%)
- 2022/23: +56.48ps (ROI +10%)
Don’t get me wrong, the margins for the column were fine last season. Hull survived on the final day on goal difference (tipped for relegation at 10/1) as did Preston by a point (tipped at 40/1). Either one of those click and we are in the green.
Nevertheless, a change was needed. Too many points were frittered away at the start of the campaign. Too often I was on the right side of results but didn’t get the profit to show for it because of naïve and ambitious choices. Well no more.
I altered the approach around Valentine's day which yielded +14pts across the last three months of the regular season and gives me some confidence ahead of the new campaign.
The purse strings have been tightened, though the longshots are here to stay. I just wanted to be completely honest about the state of the column. I back all the bets myself so it feels personal. I just hope we get the rub of the green this season and post a year of profit.
Tractor Boys to motor on
IPSWICH return to the Championship as the favourites for the title.
Unlike the other two sides relegated from the Premier League, the Tractor Boys have the same manager who took them up in 23/24 - Kieran McKenna.
Ipswich signed some of the Championship's best players during their top-flight season, suggesting that they were perhaps resigned to relegation, but it gives them a great chance to bounce back.
Jacob Greaves, Jack Clarke and Sammie Szmodics joined last summer, while Jaden Philogene and Alex Palmer arrived in January to bolster an already stacked squad. Granted, striker Liam Delap has departed for Chelsea this summer but McKenna has plenty of attacking depth to deal with that loss.
It's worth noting McKenna inherited a side languishing in mid-table of the third-tier before he masterminded their ascent to the Premier League with back-to-back promotions. When they rocked up to the Championship ahead of the 2023/24 season, only those 'in the know' expected another promotion tilt. Now, the Tractor Boys return to the division as the ones to beat and with that expectation comes pressure. Pressure they look equipped to deal with.
Their previous promotion out of the second-tier was built on a number of things. Town scored 92 goals (the most in the league), boasted the best home record in the division (W16 D6 L1) and only lost five games on the road.
With a better squad at his disposal, McKenna already has the Championship promotion blueprint to hand. His side were gung-ho at home and hard to beat away, and backing them TO BE PROMOTED at 11/8 appeals
Backing promotion over the title or a top two finish covers us if Ipswich go up in the play-offs, which is the added security we need for such a strong fancy.
Championship top scorer
Off the back of Ipswich’s promotion credentials, it seems logical to throw SAMMIE SZMODICS' name into the TOP GOALSCORER mix.
Szmodics won this accolade after netting 27 goals for Blackburn in the 2023/24 campaign before getting snaffled by Town at the start of their Premier League campaign.
Although his game time was fleeting in the top flight, Szmodics netted four times (0.36 goals per 90) with the highlight being the opener at the Etihad.
There is no disputing he faces stiff competition from his team-mates in a stacked Ipswich attack, however, with leading goalscorer Delap departing this summer, there is a goalscoring void to fill at Portman Road.
Ipswich may have been the division's most imperious attack in 2023/24 but the goals were shared around the side, it was a squad that perhaps lacked an out-and-out goalscorer.
George Hirst should spearhead their attack this campaign but with concerns over his ability to be fit for the entire season, I'd much rather take a punt on Szmodics.
Hats off to Stockport
Stockport have moved swiftly up the EFL over the last five years, and the majority of the credit for their rise has to go to Dave Challinor.
Challinor took the reins at Edgeley Park in the winter of 2021 and went on to win the National League that season. They finished fourth in League Two in their first season back in the League then won the division at the second attempt.
The Hatters wasted little time establishing themselves in League One last season, finishing third and losing in the play-off semi-finals, and if they can get over the heartache, they look primed for another top-six push.
Only the league's top two had better home records and conceded fewer goals than Stockport last term, while only record-breaking Birmingham scored more. Their form leading into the play-offs was emphatic too, taking 25 points from the last 30 available (W8 D1 L1).
It all bodes very well for this season.
This summer has been one of slight change though, with the squad being trimmed down and a few key figures leaving. Fraser Horsfall, Will Collar and Isaac Olaofe have departed but the recruitment has been solid, bringing in defender Joseph Olowu from Doncaster and Peterborough pair Tayo Edun and Malik Mothersille.
Those are players of real quality, and with Challinor at the helm, STOCKPORT should have their sights firmly set on another TOP SIX finish, and are a value bet to achieve that.
Donning the top 3
In a league as unpredictable as the fourth tier, it is difficult to be bullish on any side's chances in any given season. That said, the moves MK DONS have made over the past few months are perhaps more suited to a side in the division above.
Paul Warne, a manager with four League One promotions on his CV, was appointed last April. The fact he had four league games (W1 D3) last season and the whole summer to prepare for the upcoming campaign could be lethal. And his pedigree, alongside the signings the Dons have made this summer, show the intent of the club this season.
MK Dons' list of incomings is eye-watering. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing has dropped down from the Championship, Aaron Collins has been signed from League One Bolton and Will Collar joins from a Stockport side who finished third in the third-tier last term. Add those to a squad featuring the likes of Scott Hogan, Dan Crowley and Liam Kelly and it is easy to see why MK are the title favourites.
Although I expect them to challenge at the top end of the division, their status as the side to be shot at casts some doubt over their title credentials.
Warne has proven a dab hand at getting a side out of a division but when the onus is on him as a frontrunner, he falls short. It is why backing his side TO FINISH IN THE TOP 3 appeals much more as a bet than them winning the title, especially in a division as unpredictable as this one.
Bromley to punch above their weight
It is hard not to get starry-eyed when talking about Andy Woodman’s BROMLEY but there is a lot to like.
By his own admission, Woodman doesn’t like total football and the proof is in the pudding as last season Bromley had the lowest average possession in League Two. They also ranked second for set-piece goals, a big plus in my eyes, and veteran frontman Michael Cheek finished as the division's top scorer (25) in his first season in the EFL.
Since Woodman left his post as head goalkeeper coach at Arsenal in March 2021, the club has been on a steady and consistent upwards trajectory.
During four seasons in the National League, Woodman’s side never dropped below 10th. They finished in the top seven in three of those seasons, won the FA Trophy before securing promotion to the EFL for the first time in the club's history via the play-offs in 23/24.
Amongst all that, Woodman also spurned interest from Gillingham as well. The Ravens backed up promotion with a top half finish last season despite being one of the favourites for the drop. So we have a loyal, no nonsense, effective manager getting his side to punch well above their weight. I like it a lot.
I see no reason why they won’t consolidate their status in the fourth tier this campaign and with a 22+ POINT head start in the SEASON HANDICAP table, quotes of 15/1 look very interesting.
Not so Stead-y
Barnet return to League Two and they are coming in hot.
They amassed 102 points last season in the National League, only losing six games, while scoring 97 times and conceding 38.
What's more, the Bees' summer business shows real intent. They aren’t coming to make up the numbers, and the quality they have added to an already talented squad could see them challenge at the top end of the division.
2024/2025✅ a season to always remember. Can’t thank the team and the fans enough ❤️🐝 pic.twitter.com/d3qSeu6uvJ
— Callum Stead (@Callumstead9) May 6, 2025
Although their price to gatecrash the top seven appeals at 5/2, it's the goal-scoring exploits of CALLUM STEAD which interests me here.
Stead netted 15 times in 2023/24 and 18 times last term. At 66/1 with Betfred offering five places on each-way bets, his price in the League Two TOP GOALSCORER market appeals. The 50/1 offered with BetVictor is worth taking although it is worth noting they only payout to four places each-way.
Odds correct at 1700 BST (25/07/25)
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