- Lewis Tomlinson (@LTRacing_) has returned over +70pts profit in his last two National League outright columns
Football betting tips: National League
National League
1pt e.w. Boreham Wood to win the National League at 7/1 (BOYLESPORTS - 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt Worthing to finish in the top 7 at 15/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
National League North
2pts e.w. Morecambe to win the National League North at 6/1 (bet365 - 1/4, 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Hednesford Town to win the National League North (BetVictor - 1/4, 1,2,3)
*More bets may appear here...
The top-tier of non-league football returns at the weekend, and hopefully we can make it a fourth straight outright preview of profit.
Last season’s column returned +13.05pts and took the overall tally from the non-league outrights to just shy of 75pts. We were helped out last year in no small part by the 8pt NAP on York to win the league; who scored in the 103rd minute on the last day of the season to get it over the line. It was never, ever in doubt, was it?
With Rochdale, who were denied in that famous title decider, following the Minstermen up through the play-offs, the league has lost two heavy hitters and relegated Barrow and Harrogate perhaps don’t look as immediately strong as the two promoted teams, the league itself probably not quite as it was three or four seasons ago.
Carlisle head the betting at a best price of 5/2 to win the title, the Cumbrians well fancied last season after spending big in the summer but unable to keep pace with the top two from the turn of the year.
Mark Hughes’ men look the correct favourites to lift the title, boasting a strong array of attacking talent, spearheaded by Regan Linney, who has notched 42 goals across the last two National League seasons. Georgie Kelly, David Ajiboye, Luke Armstrong and Junior Luamba complete a formidable front-line for Carlisle and they've also added Forest Green’s Harvey Bunker and flashy ex-Morecambe man Miguel Azeez to an already strong midfield.
Wager on the Wood
Carlisle were beaten in the play-off semi-final by BOREHAM WOOD, who lost out on penalties for a place in the Football League at Wembley, and I think the Wood make appeal to lift the title from an each-way perspective.
Luke Garrard is one the top operators at this level and proved his versatility as a manager by transforming an aging squad whose strengths were based on directness and organisation into a quick, tricky and fluid side last season, not least in part down to Abdul Abdulmalik, who would’ve surely been there or thereabouts in every conversation regarding the league’s best player last season.
Matt Rush bagged 26 goals in the league last year and is part of an attack that also boasts Zak Brunt and Lewis Richardson behind a solid spine consisting of Regan Booty, Marley Marshall-Miranda, Femi Ilesanmi and Chris Bush.
Wood have been quiet in the transfer market so far, adding loanees Luca Gunter (a goalkeeper from Tottenham) and Oliver Bainbridge (a full-back from Sunderland), with ex-Altrincham and Halifax wing-back Tylor Golden the only established National league player to relocate to Hertfordshire.
Golden is a good addition to what is already a high-quality and settled squad, and with their biggest asset perhaps still being the man sat in the dugout, the Wood make plenty of each-way appeal at 7/1 TO LIFT THE TITLE.
Worthing worth a bet
Two of the six clubs in last season’s play-offs were newly promoted and I think National League South champions WORTHING are worth a play to continue their upward trajectory and make the top seven on their first year in fifth tier.
Adam Hinshelwood returned to the South Coast midway in October after his surprise exit from York with the Rebels in a disappointing mid-table position, but his reappointment proved transformative as the side finally achieved automatic promotion after a couple of near misses in the play-offs.
The Hinshelwood factor is a big reason as to why I think his team look a shade overpriced; put simply, he’s one of the best managers at this level and he’s retained a really solid core group to take with him to the National League, with Harry Ransom, Sam Packham and Teddy Jenks key amongst them.
Brad Dolaghan – a Worthing youth product - was the top scorer in the National League South last season and should bag goals in the fifth tier, whilst Hinshelwood’s early business includes the signings of Ricky Aguiar and Ashley Nathaniel-George, both of whom he’d previously brought to York, and experienced former Southend midfielder Noor Husin, who should provide leadership and top-end National League nous.
I’m always conscious to consider the overall state of a club rather than the squad and it’s hard to be anything other than positive about Worthing. They’ve really connected with the town, averaging over 2.3k home fans last season, and with a proven manager who clearly trusts his squad, I think they’re much too big at 15/2 TO FINISH IN THE TOP SEVEN given the forward momentum they’ll carry into this season.
They’d have also been a pretty strong bet to have finished in the top half had any firms priced that up this season, but we’re unfortunately pretty thin on in terms of markets even at this late stage.
Side with Shrimps and Pitmen in step two
And keeping on the theme of backing a manager as much as backing a club, I think MORECAMBE should be outright favourites to win the National League North and I think Adam Lakeland is the man capable of bringing some joy back to the Lancashire coast after a couple of years as one of English football’s laughing stocks.
Ashvir Singh Johal certainly played his role in that – memories of an opening day defeat of Altrincham and some fantastically well-worked goals early in the season soon abandoned as his tactics were soon found out as naïve and impractical, adjectives that could also apply to ownership consortium Panjab Warriors, who persisted with “their” man for far too long after it became blatantly apparent he was out of his depth.
The damage had been done by the time Jim Bentley took control, with the Shrimps dropping into Step 2, but the appointment of Lakeland suggests lessons have been learned
Lakeland has been an overachiever at every club he’s managed at so far, once again helping Halifax to surpass expectations with an eighth-placed finish in the National League last season but has opted to drop a level this season.
The superior spending power of Morecambe has been evident in their transfer business so far; one of Halifax’s key men, central defender Will Smith, has followed his gaffer from the Shay to the Mazuma Mobile Stadium. Cameron Coxe and Lewis Baines have both been regular defensive starters in play-off teams in the league above and will add further quality to the backline.
Midfielder Taelor O’Kane has shown flashes of brilliance for Fylde, but it’s Morecambe’s attacking options that particularly catch the eye; wide men Elliot Newby and Matty Daly have vast experience at higher levels, whilst Isaac Buckley-Ricketts perhaps didn’t make as strong of an impact at Macclesfield last year but was the outstanding player in a Curzon Ashton side that achieved a scarcely-believable play-off finish beforehand.
Lakeland has also no made no secret that he tried to sign his new Number 9, Teddy Collis, for Halifax last summer on the back of a season that saw him net 31 times for Brightlingsea Regent in 2024/25 and has finally been given the budget to poach his target, who was promoted from the Isthmian League with Billericay last season.
For the first time in a long time, I’m confident Morecambe have a good squad and a good manager – let’s hope there’s no backroom drama to derail a club that finally looks stable this time around.
I’ll also have a smaller play on Northern Premier League play-off winners HEDNESFORD TOWN to make a bold bid for back-to-back promotions.
The Pitmen have gone full-time this summer and their recruitment has caught the eye, with bucket loads of National League experience added to the squad through Aaron Hayden, Niall Maher and George Langston in defence, Dale Gorman in midfield and forwards Dylan Mottley-Henry - player of the season at Chester last year, - Jamie Cooke and Aaron Jarvis.
They have a squad more than capable of competing at the top end on the National League North and I’d considered them overpriced at 12/1.
Odds correct at 17:00 BST (31/07/26)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
