Football betting tips: EFL
4pts Southampton top eight finish (CH) & Barnet top seven finish (L2) at 2.11/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
2pts Norwich top eight finish (CH), Plymouth top six finish (L1) & Grimsby top seven finish (L2) at 10.33/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts e.w. Will Lankshear (Middlesbrough) to be Sky Bet Championship top goalscorer at 16/1 (BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Jovon Makama (Norwich) to be Sky Bet Championship top goalscorer at 33/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Lewis Dobbin (Southampton) to be Sky Bet Championship top goalscorer at 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.75pt e.w. Bojan Radulović (Huddersfield) to be Sky Bet League One top goalscorer at 66/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Southampton to win the Championship, Plymouth to win League One & Barnet to win League Two at 2249/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3)
I like international football. I absolutely adore the World Cup - who doesn't - but there's an excitement in a new domestic football season which is unmatched. Well, I'm certainly yet to find something which comes close to it anyway.
It's the puzzle element of it all I find the most intriguing. Trying to solve just how each campaign plays out. It's perhaps more sudoku than jigsaw - the former a game I often find myself constantly changing on the rare occasion I play it.
Because when you think you've got the answer something inevitably pops up along the way to take you off track. The number 5 has to go here, there's nowhere else it could possibly go, that's until you realise it's already in that square and six spaces along the row.
That's the feeling going into an outright preview spanning multiple divisions. A longlist is created which is narrowed down to the most interesting, the most intriguing or the best value picks. Yet just when you think you've cracked it there will be something to place doubt back into your mind.
I'd love for all of these picks to win but they won't. That's the nature of it. If they do then perhaps I go into early retirement from the game. I won't make enough money from it to do so but I'd certainly want to go out on a high - a career change would be calling.
What I do want to deliver though is selections which provide interest across the course of the season, with the obvious aim of having a bit of profit to go alongside it at the end.
Millwall were that team on the +24 handicap last season. Joel Piroe the one before. Raphinha and Antoine Griezmann two others to give us something to cheer on at big prices - both delivering as well.
My shortlist this year focuses on variety (just below the obvious profit). There's shorter options; there's four-figure smaller stakes plays. Each of these I hope provide a way into the outright markets.
The new Championship format
So, what's changed this season? The biggest is undoubtedly the expanded Sky Bet Championship play-offs. A third of the league now has a chance of promotion. I find that odd, I don't like it, but I do like the potential you now get in the markets.
Bookmakers have expanded to the top eight finish while some still offer top six. I'm not sure if they've forgotten about it but go top eight if you can even with the shorter prices.
Basically, top two still go up automatically. Third and fourth go through to the semi finals. Fifth to eighth play new quarter-finals. More teams now have a chance of promotion yet that's not necessarily a good thing.
What it does open up is betting potential in the 'there or thereabouts' teams of previous years. Those you couldn't place between fifth and ninth. It also gives an added safety net to those who should be finishing in the play-offs under the old format.
The first one to focus on is SOUTHAMPTON. A team which everyone will fully be aware of given the events at the end of last season even if they don't follow the Championship regularly.
We won't go over old ground too much as you'll know what happened. The Saints were expelled from the play-offs just days before the final for spying on opposition training. I really do believe they'd have won at Wembley again too.
For what it's worth, I don't believe they gained a really significant advantage from doing it. I do agree with the decision on the basis that we, as a league, decided this is not an allowed practice following Leeds' charge in 2019, but it feels like it was part of a pre-match 'routine' rather than it being the sole reason of their success.
It's why I'm hot on their chances for the new campaign, even with the spying removed. They demonstrated what a quality outfit they were under Tonda Eckert's guidance and it's been a learning experience which can only serve to benefit a young and still relatively inexperienced head coach.
They also go into the new campaign, technically, on a 21-game league unbeaten run still.
This is a unit filled with quality. The permanent additions of the successful loanees of last season in Cyle Larin and Daniel Peretz signal they're a side going for promotion once again, as does the capture of Aston Villa's Lewis Dobbin who netted ten and provided eight assists during a successful stint with Preston in 25/26.
And then there's siege mentality. It'll be there whether or not people believe it was their own fault. A side which feels the world is against them is a dangerous one and with a point to prove, Southampton have the squad and head coach in place to punish the league.
Here's the thing with the prices. It should be shorter based on the fact they should have won the play-offs but then there's a couple of factors to consider.
They start the season on -4 points. Not a problem as they could wipe that out in their first couple of games, yet Eckert has been charged by the FA. There is the potential of a ban.
But Saints will have discussed this and created a contingency plan for the scenario. If there wasn't that investigation lingering over the club, you'd imagine the prices wouldn't exist.
Of course, this isn't just to brush it off as a nothing event and they won't mind it at all. That's far from the case. But I still hold confidence in their ability to get through it.
Anything less than TOP EIGHT would represent an abysmal campaign while I like the 14s TO WIN THE TITLE as well, even with some of the ex-Premier League sides involved.
And, based on some of the pre-season showings, I will also side with DOBBIN TO BE CHAMPIONSHIP TOP GOALSCORER at 33/1.
While the Saints have a good choice of options up front, it feels like Dobbin will see plenty of minutes throughout the course of the campaign whether that's through the middle or pushed out wide.
As mentioned previously he was involved in 18 goals for a Preston side who slumped to 14th in the final standings and that came after being in and out of the starting XI during the first half of the campaign.
Loan spells at North End, Norwich and West Brom should only benefit his potential this year as it's allowed him to feature in 66 Championship games despite his young age.
A few bookmakers have seemingly forgotten to add Dobbin to their outright markets at the time of writing so some shopping around is required. Enough are offering the option though (with others likely to follow anyway) to allow it to be a staked selection.
Elsewhere, West Ham should top the lot but you can never be certain on the atmosphere around the club. They have the potential to walk it as their 7/4 outright price indicates.
Wolves were a team I did fancy to take on the Hammers at 11/2 but now I'm not certain following Rob Edwards' departure. César Peixoto could well do wonders for them yet it feels a pointless spell of Edwards at the helm when it was clear he was building for the Championship campaign.
And then you have Burnley who have seemingly fallen well behind in their own preparations for the new season. It's tricky to see them replicating a Parker-esque run of narrowly missing out on the trophy.
I was drawn in by NORWICH last season and it's hard to deny that was an atrocious pick in the end. However, I can't help but be drawn in by them once again.
They'd won just two of their first 17 games of the campaign before a remarkable second-half of the season run under Philippe Clement saw them finishing ninth. If he had a few more games they could have snuck into the play-offs.
It's not been a hugely active transfer window but then does it need to be given the way they were performing? A team winning 16 of 26 games is one which needs selected upgrades not complete overhaul.
We can't be too surprised a coach with an approach like Clement's got the best out of an exciting attack, with little to suggest they can't offer a repeat this time around.
Jovon Makama can enjoy a terrific campaign should he avoid any issues from the injury which kept him out of the final few months. Paris Maghoma showed really encouraging signs as did Mohamed Touré. Andre Brooks is a clever addition from Sheffield United as well.
There may well be occasions where they need sheer firepower to get themselves through but the Canaries have just that. It's hard to ignore a team with talent aplenty at the top end of the pitch.
Are they value at 16/1 to win the league? I don't think so given the teams they'll be battling against in that scenario. They are a beneficiary of the TOP EIGHT change though and I'd expect them to be in this area come may.
I'd also love a top four market to appear for both them and Southampton, I'd be intrigued to know what chance they're given of automatic promotion or being one of the two best play-off finishers.
MAKAMA is worth a play to be the TOP GOALSCORER in the division. Again, I'm hoping there are no issues from that injury last season.
He netted seven in 15 league appearances under Clement before his campaign was brought to a premature end with five of those goals coming in eight starts as a centre forward.
Makama also netted a hat-trick when starting as a striker in their FA Cup win over Walsall.
This does feel like an attack where the goals could be shared around but that could also benefit Makama as he's shown his ability as playing as a wide man when required. There will be a spot for him in this XI.
At 33/1, I'm having an each-way stake on the Canaries star, even if he is missing the first couple of weeks through a contact injury picked up in pre-season.
From the front runners, Jarrod Bowen is an understandable favourite as he is staying with a West Ham outfit expected to go well.
But there's every chance that WILL LANKSHEAR performs much better than his 16/1 odds suggest following his summer switch to a Middlesbrough outfit who created plenty under Kim Hellberg.
Lankshear joins on the back of a very promising loan spell with an Oxford side who were relegated from the division, netting 11 in 44 outings but five of those came across his final 12 after really establishing himself as the starting centre forward.
He's there to convert the chances which Boro were wasteful with last time out. They lacked that clinical edge which could have secured them promotion.
It feels a somewhat odd statement to say given that 72 goals is a decent enough return but they will know how many more it could and should have been based on their performances.
Lankshear looks like the ideal candidate. The 21-year-old has others to do the running work for him, allowing him to focus on the finishing.
Preferring to occupy the central attacking spaces, the now ex-Tottenham man is often in great positions to score and, as his time at Oxford shows, he will make the most of that.
But it's not just in the box where his efforts come from, even if it is the majority which do. Lankshear isn't afraid to have a pop from distance if the chances presents itself.
In what should be another positive season for Boro, you'd fancy Lankshear to shine.
Leicester to cruise in League One?
Leicester's shock relegation from the Sky Bet Championship has led to them being made as short as 9/4 favourites for success in League One.
In all honesty, they should do just that. Russell Martin divides opinion given his style and the results which may come with them but it is a strong appointment for a club now in the third tier of English football.
The arrival of Conor Chaplin from Ipswich is another positive. The issue I have is that they're roughly the same price as Birmingham were at this stage and the Blues smashed the record for most points in a season with 111.
But compare the atmosphere around both clubs. Birmingham accepted they were in full rebuild mode and had a fanbase behind them, even in relegation given the new ownership.
Leicester? Not quite the same. Fans will always rally around their side at the lowest point and that deserves a huge amount of credit and yet it feels like so much needs to happen at the club still.
Again, they should top the division. However, at a short price I can't quite get on board with it. 'Big' clubs have been trapped in this division before.
One of those of course being Sheffield Wednesday who are made 7/1 second-favourites. Perhaps you could point to them as the challenger but, like Leicester, there's still a lot which needs to be done there.
They've got their club back from the disgraceful end to the Chansiri era and there's an ownership group there which people will get behind initially.
I do wonder if they need a year or so to fully stabilise and set the club up for future success. The foundations need to be laid again and this campaign could well be a failed play-off appearance followed by the title coming the next.
So where do we look? PLYMOUTH ARGYLE are the one which appeal at the prices. We saw their potential in the second-half of last season.
They may have lost star forward Lorent Tolaj to Bristol City but that's unfortunately to be expected of clubs at this level. Good players will always attract interest and unless you have unlimited resources it's impossible to say no.
The line "it is beneficial that the sale has happened with a lot of the transfer window still to go," from Argyle's director of football Derek Adams is certainly an interesting one. You can bring in two or three players of real quality at this level with £4million or so.
Adams' arrival is one of the reasons why this could be a successful campaign for the club. The club were 23rd after 18 games but a remarkable second-half of the season saw them ending in 8th and narrowly missing out on the play-offs.
From matchday 19 to the end of it, only champions Lincoln (72) picked up more points than Argyle (57). They were in automatic promotion form.
They kept faith in gaffer Tom Cleverley. Bringing Adams back in the role he holds though allowed him to take on responsibilities which Cleverley perhaps wasn't as sharp on, alongside being able to offer advice when required. It meant their head coach could focus on the coaching.
The results then spoke for themselves. Part of their success will rely on unearthing a suitable Tolaj replacement but I'm willing to keep faith in the club to come up with a solution to the problem.
The window so far has been good anyway. Goalkeeper Murphy Cooper has shown he's a quality operator at this level while centre-back Alex Hartridge has over 130 games in League One following his arrival from Burton.
Harvey White's arrival from Stevenage comes on the back of a superb campaign with them and it also gives Argyle a real dead ball threat which they will more than likely capitalise on.
I don't mind an each-way play on the 14s for them TO LIFT THE TITLE (three places), while the 13/8 for a TOP SIX FINISH is worth inclusion in any season long accumulators.
Huddersfield are a side priced up similarly for success in England's third tier but I can't get on board with them given what we've seen in recent years.
There's all the potential there, yet that's repeatedly been the case, and I wouldn't be surprised if they either won the title or ended up in 10th.
One angle I am interested in exploring though is forward BOJAN RADULOVIC to be the LEAGUE ONE TOP GOALSCORER at 66/1. This may ultimately come to be a bad pick for a couple of reasons but I'm willing to take the risk at this price.
His injury record isn't the best and the arrival of Ashley Fletcher from Blackpool may also take minutes away from him. My hope is that they play as a duo and he can keep himself fit enough to feature in the large majority of games.
But Radulovic has shown his potential at times. Last season returned eight goals in 23 appearances and six of those came during a 12-game run in which injuries didn't disrupt his momentum.
Give him a full campaign and he can score goals. In the 22/23 campaign with HJK Helsinki, the forward returned 21 goals in 38 appearances across all competitions - 15 in 19 just focusing solely on the league.
The Veikkausliiga (70th) sits almost in the middle of League One (48th) and League Two (90th) in Opta's power rankings so, while it may have been a few years ago, that combined with his efforts last season further highlight the potential.
And then we can add in Huddersfield's attacking showings under Martin Drury at the back-end of last season when he stepped in for Liam Manning before landing the job on a permanent basis this summer.
Only three teams scored more than Huddersfield's 15 goals but one of those (Stockport) had played an extra game. In terms of chances created through expected goals (xG), the Terriers ranked fourth with 15.36, so it was no fluke.
Defensively, improvement is needed but that doesn't concern us in this market. Should that continue into the new campaign, the forward options will see plenty of opportunities to strike.
Hopefully Radulovic is fit enough to capitalise on those. That is the main concern for me but this is 66/1 rather than the 25s-33s of the other options, and that's why it's still worth an each-way play.
As open as ever in the fourth tier
Sky Bet League Two was an incredibly open one in the betting but Salford's price continues to be backed in across the board - we're talking 5/1 from 10/1 in the space of ten days.
Disappointment in the play-off final last season has seen Peter Cklamovski arrive as their new manager, replacing Karl Robinson, although his career path is an interesting one having most recently managed Malaysia.
An expected active transfer window has followed with Macaulay Langstaff signed from Millwall. He netted 28 in 46 appearances for Notts County the last time he was at this level. Luke Molyneux is also a real quality addition for League Two.
BARNET look well-prepared for the TITLE challenge though with 10/1 available on them to top the lot. Dean Brennan's men narrowly missed out on the play-offs last time out.
They finished the season in fine form with seven wins from eight and plenty of goals scored. In fact, only Grimsby created more than Barnet in front of goal according to the underlying data.
Barnet were a bit of a 'data darling' team because of it yet a rough period through February and March was ultimately what cost them a spot in the top seven. It should be different this time around.
Plenty of League Two experience has arrived in the transfer window with centre-backs Will Wright in from Swindon and Zac Williams signing from Crewe - the latter having an unsuccessful loan spell at Kilmarnock but he's made 90 appearances at the level.
They'll also be hoping Tom Knowles can carry over his National League form with Forest Green into this season with 11 goals sitting alongside seven assists. He can basically play anywhere given his high effort levels.
The one thing Barnet do need to improve on is their home form, with Brennan's boys establishing themselves as much better travellers on their EFL return - they gained more points on the road.
But that's arguably a far easier thing to do than the problem being the other way round. In what is expected to be a somewhat open league once again, Barnet can be a consistent side at the top end of it.
I'd file GRIMSBY in the 'there or thereabouts' category of football clichés, with the Mariners (in absolutely superb Lotto kits by the way) well place for another top seven charge.
David Artell's side were beaten by Salford in cruel fashion back in May but they've kept together the large core of that squad which made a play-off appearance.
Andy Cook is in on a permanent following a successful loan spell in the second-half of the campaign with the experienced forward providing a real presence up front.
George McEachran's departure for Chesterfield is a blow and yet Grimsby have shown their ability in the transfer market to find suitable replacements at challenging points, it'll be interesting to see where they go with it.
Repeat showings of the form of last season from Harvey Rodgers and Reece Staunton will provide a threat from full-back while Kieran Green has been a player reborn under Artell's guidance - he's recently landed a new deal because of it.
They've delivered a 'new' goalkeeper in Harvey Cartwright after Christy Pym lost his place to Jackson Smith, who has since joined Port Vale from Barnsley. He returns to the club having spent the 23/24 season at Blundell Park but a really positive loan spell at Hartlepool puts him in a good spot this time around.
Grimsby were excellent in the second-half of the previous campaign. The one thing which held them back was their ability to turn some draws into wins, although they still managed to secure plenty of the latter.
A focus on the fixture list also gives hope to later results for Town should they require them. They face Crawley, Newport, Shrewsbury, Crewe and Colchester in their final five - some of those expected to feature in the relegation battle.
While I don't think they're quite there in terms of title contenders, the 11/8 available on a TOP SEVEN finish looks fair value.
Odds correct at 10:40 BST (31/07/26)
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