Football betting tips: European outrights
La Liga
0.5pt e.w Arda Guler most assists at 40/1 (bet365 1/4, 1-4)
Serie A
1pt e.w Artem Dovbyk top scorer at 20/1 (bet365 1/4, 1-4)
Ligue 1
4pts Monaco to win Ligue 1 without PSG at 9/4 (General)
2pts Mika Biereth top scorer at 12/1 (bet365)
We had good success in the outright markets across Europe's big divisions last season, well, apart from tipping Alvaro Morata to be top scorer in Italy. Let's forget about that one, and the fact he was so bad he was loaned to Turkey...
Apart from that it was a sweep, with Atletico comfortably landing the 'without big two' money, Bilbao securing a top four berth in Spain, and Monaco finishing in the top three in France.
I found it much tougher to find some really solid short-ish price bets this time around, so have opted for a few longer priced ones to chance and cheer on over the course of the season.
Give it to Guler
While I'd love to get stuck into Barcelona retaining their title at 6/5, I think there are just too many uncertainties around both them and direct rivals Real Madrid - with Atletico not out of the question. No team has successfully defended the La Liga title since 2018/19.
Barca were unquestionably the best team in the league last season, but rode their star players - Lamine Yamal and Raphinha - exceptionally hard and that could come back to bite them, while Real have a new face in the dugout, a tactical and footballing genius Xabi Alonso.
They were far from impressive at the Club World Cup, but will be better when the season gets under way. Alonso had next to no time to work with his players - a group so used to tactical freedom under Carlo Ancelotti - so the off-season should've given them plenty of time to get to grips with his structures and rules.
Atletico are once again the dark horse, priced at 10/1 to win the league. They weren't far behind their city rivals last season from an underlying process perspective, and look to have strengthened in the transfer window. If only they could sort out their away from (W8 D6 L5 last season)...
So, I'm swerving the title market, and having successfully tipped Athletic Bilbao for a top four finish last season at 15/8, I'm going to swerve them this time around at a shorter price, mainly due to the added demands of Champions League football.
The top scorer market made little appeal too with Kylian Mbappe (4/5) and Robert Lewandowski (6/4) the obvious candidates, with Alexander Sorloth coming closest to selection at 10s. He finished third last season and second the season before that, but with Julian Alvarez at Atletico, I suspect it will be another bit-part campaign for the Norwegian, who only started 15 league games last season.
So, I've pivoted to the TOP ASSISTS market, and we'll throw a dart at ARDA GULER, who could thrive in Alonso's new Real Madrid.
Ancelotti used him sparingly last season, starting the 20-year-old just 14 times in the league, but it was interesting that after naming him on the bench in Madrid's opening CWC match, Alonso started him in all the ensuing five contests, with Guler grabbing a goal and two assists.
With Jude Bellingham out for the first six weeks of the new season following shoulder surgery, Guler could get a good run in the team early in the campaign and do enough to cement his spot in the starting XI, with places up for grabs under the new manager and in a new formation.
Despite his limited minutes, Guler averaged 0.32 expected assists (xA) per 90 last term in the league which placed him tied third of all players to play more than 1000 minutes. Only Atletico's new signing from Villarreal, Alex Baena, and Lamine Yamnal ranked ahead of him - the latter finishing with the most assists (13).
That suggests that, should he get game time, the assists will follow, so we'll take him at 40s; being on in-swinging set-pieces can't hurt either.
Gasperini to galvanise Dovbyk
Over in Serie A, and we've once again had the round-robin of managerial changes. Champions Napoli looked as though they were going to part ways with Antonio Conte but the Italian stayed (for now). The teams who finished below them have all made changes in the dugout.
Inter moved on from Simone Inzaghi and appointed club legend Christian Chivu, Atalanta saw long-serving coach Gian Pierro Gasperini depart for Roma, who moved on from Claudio Ranieiri, with La Dea appointing former Southampton manager Ivan Juric. Juventus made their change at the back end of last season, Igor Tudor replacing Thiago Motta, while Sergio Conceicao only last five months at Milan and has been replaced by Massimiliano Allegri.
Oh, and let's not forget about Fiorentina - who finished sixth last season - parting company with Raffaele Palladino and appointing Milan's last title winning boss Stefano Piolo, or Lazio (7th) who have brought back Maurizio Sarri just a year and three months after sacking him.
That makes it seven of last season's top eight who have a new manager; very difficult to form a strong opinion in any of the main markets then. Napoli are the correct favourites, but won the league last season mainly thanks to having no European football - a formula that works so well for Conte.
So, we'll instead throw a TOP SCORER dart at Roma's ARTEM DOVBYK for two reasons; the Ukrainian has a track record, and he now has a very attack-minded coach calling the shots.
Dovbyk managed 12 goals in Serie A last season following his move from Girona, where he won the top scorer gong ahead of some big names. That shows he can be prolific, and last season's 0.45 xG per 90 was very solid given the fine-margin nature of Roma under Ranieiri.
In his La Liga Pachichi winning season, he averaged 0.84 xG per 90 and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get closer to that figure this season given the attacking genius in the dugout.
Gasperini had Atalanta punching well above their financial weight for nearly a decade, and last season they were in the title race until late on, scoring the second most goals in the division, and that was the same the season before too. His side also possessed last season's eventual top scorer Mateo Retegui who has since been sold to Saudi side Al Qadasiya.
So, should Gasperini get his attacking ideals across, we can expect Roma to score plenty more goals and Dovbyk - at the tip of a spear in attack - should be on the end of most of those chances. There is a chance he'll be on penalties too, especially with Leandro Paredes out of the equation having moved back to Argentina and Paulo Dybala's constant battle to stay fit.
Little appeal in Germany
Compared to the two leagues already discussed, the odds suggest we won't have much of a title race in the Bundesliga this season, with Bayern Munich 1/3 to defend their title.
It's hard to argue with that price really, with Vincent Kompany's men comfortably the best team in the league last season, and their rivals haven't improved over the summer.
Bayer Leverkusen have downgraded in the dugout - Erik ten Hag in for Alonso - and have lost five key starters from last season (Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah, Odilon Kossonou and Granit Xhaka), Eintracht Frankfurt have lost Hugo Eikitike and RB Leipzig have seen Benjamin Sesko depart.
Dortmund have lost Jamie Gittens to Chelsea in their only major departure, and they would be my pick to chase Bayern home at 9/4 given how well they finished under Nico Kovacs last season. They did look tired at the Club World Cup though, and lack quality depth to maintain a challenge on all fronts.
The closest I came to a Bundesliga bet was our good friend Serhou Guirassy to be top scorer at 9/2, with the Guinean landing us a share of the top scorer money at the CWC. He's been prolific in Germany, firing 28 in 28 at Stuttgart before 21 in 30 last season at Dortmund, while also winning a share of the Champions League golden boot.
However, he's up against Harry Kane, with the Englishman netting 36 and 26 in his two seasons at Bayern. No bet in Germany.
Monaco can make their mark
PSG were the best team on the continent last season, winning a historic treble after capturing the Champions League in emphatic fashion thanks to a 5-0 thrashing of Inter.
They head into the new Ligue 1 season as 1/8 favourites to win a fifth straight title, and it's hard to argue with that price given just how good Luis Enrique's side were last season.
However, it wouldn't be one I'd be sticking in season-long outright accumulators. Les Parisiens play a high-octane style of football that is energy sapping, and following on from a long club season, they then made it to the Club World Cup final and did look tired as they were handily beaten by Chelsea.
Fatigue could be an issue for them as the season progresses, though I am admittedly not brave enough to take them on in the title market.
The second best team in France last season was MONACO, according to the data anyway, with Adi Hutter's side posting some excellent underlying numbers on their way to third - securing us top three bounty at 2/1 in the process.
I think they are worth wading in on again, this time in the WITHOUT PSG market at 9/4 given what we saw from them last season, and the fact they have strengthened in the summer.
Les Rouge et Blanc were the only other side to boast an expected goal difference (xGD) per game of more than +1.0 in the entire division, making them streets clear of the rest and the clear closest side to champions PSG in terms of process.
Should that level be maintained, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them mount an actual title challenge, but taking them in the without market makes more appeal given the quality, depth and spending power of PSG. Marseille could push them close, but the combustible nature of coach Roberto De Zerbi is a massive issue.
Paul Pogba is the big-named addition this summer, joining on a free after his two-year ban ended, and he will relish playing in the French league - expect him to dictate plenty of games this season. Otherwise it's pretty much as you were squad-wise, which can only help from a continuity standpoint.
Get on the Bier(eth)
And that includes MIKA BIERETH, who looks worth chancing at 12/1 TO BE TOP SCORER.
Unfortunately at the time of writing only bet365 are up with top scorer prices for Ligue 1 and aren't offering each-way places so we'll reduce stakes slightly and back the Dane on the nose.
He only joined Monaco from Sturm Graz in January, but fired 13 goals in his 16 appearances, the joint-most in that period along with eventual top scorer Ousmane Dembele.
He was red-hot from the off and fired three, yes three, hat-tricks in the month of February.
That kind of goal glut is just what we need again this season, and leading the line for a side likely to be battling at the top of the table, and one that creates an abundance of chances (2.24 xGF per game last season), Biereth should get ample opportunities to strike.
And, in case any of you were wondering whether or not he was hugely over performing his underlying metrics, the answer would be no.
He was running slightly hot but not at the level to concern (13 goals from 11.3 xG), with his xG per 90 average of 0.82 extremely healthy. Should he sustain that level this term he'll be right in the thick of the top scorer battle and in with every chance of scooping the gong, especially with the market favourite, Dembele, having played a mammoth 24/25 season possessing a history of injuries.
Odds correct at 1530 BST (11/08/25)
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