Football betting tips: European outrights
La Liga
6pts Atletico Madrid to win La Liga w/o Barcelona and Real Madrid at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
3pts Athletic Bilbao to finish top four at 15/8 (bet365, William Hill)
Serie A
1.5pt e.w. Alvaro Morata (Milan) top scorer at 12/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
Ligue 1
4pts Monaco to finish top three at 2/1 (bet365, Unibet)
La Liga
Reigning La Liga and Champions League winners Real Madrid have only got stronger this summer with the acquisition of Kylian Mbappe. Their attack will look frightening this season, and while there would be question marks around whether all of those stars can be fit into a functioning team, there are no such concerns due to Carlo Ancelotti being the coach. He'll make it work and keep everyone happy.
Barcelona have another new coach with Hansi Flick taking over from Xavi, and he has a tough job on his hands beating Madrid to the title. If they are to do so, they will be relying heavily on the core of youth players coming through. Pau Cubarsí, Héctor Fort, Fermín López and of course Lamine Yamal are all stars in the making.
Atletico Madrid haven't really threatened winning the title since their last success in 20/21, and are unlikely to again, but they should prove best of the rest, and at 6/4 TO WIN LA LIGA WITHOUT BARCA AND REAL MADRID, they are a cracking bet.
I couldn't quite believe my eyes when I saw the price on Sky Bet. It's as short as 8/11 elsewhere, and with Diego Simeone's men looking stronger this term than last after a decent window which saw them remove some aging players and bring in proven replacements, coupled with their rivals having question marks, this bet was a no brainer.
Granted, it wouldn't have won had we backed it last season, but that was due to a freak Girona season. That is highly unlikely to be repeated after they have lost key players and now must contend with European football.
Last season was the first time in 12 campaigns that Simeone's side hadn't finished third or higher, so was clearly a one-off, and in all previous 11 seasons the proposed bet would have won.
Backing Bilbao
Copa del Rey winners ATHLETIC BILBAO could be the team that pushes them closest this season, but I think they will struggle to keep pace with Atleti, though I am happy to back the Basque side to FINISH IN THE TOP FOUR.
With Girona's performances expected to dip, there is a place up for grabs, and it is worth noting that Bilbao, while finishing 13 points behind Girona, only picked up one fewer expected point.
Their underlying process was in fact better than the side that finished third, meaning there is a great platform to build on ahead of the new season. They have a solid side with decent depth too, plus some legitimate stars in winger Nico Williams and goalkeeper Unai Simon.
Basque rivals Real Sociedad have a lot of ground to make up if they are to challenge, as do Real Betis and Villarreal, so Bilbao are the bet to crash the top four.
I did have a look at the top scorer betting, which is headed by 8/13 Mbappe, but there was no appeal at all. If Girona do to spend on a replacement for last season's Pachichi winner Artem Dovbyk, who joined Roma this summer, then whoever that player is would be of interest in one of the league's most attacking teams.
Serie A
Inter romped to the title last season, racking up 94 points to blow everyone out of the water. City rivals Milan finished a distant second, ahead of Juventus, Atalanta and Bologna, with those four all joining Inter in qualifying for the Champions League.
Simone Inzaghi's side are 8/11 to retain their crown and I'm in no hurry to oppose them given that, if anything, they have strengthened this summer, and because their closest rivals have all undergone changes in the dugout.
Juve nabbed Bologna's sought after manager Thiago Motta, Milan parted company with 21/22 Scudetto winning coach Stefano Pioli for Paulo Fonseca, and the 22/23 champions Napoli are now led by Antonio Conte. All that change presents a lot of uncertainty around the chasing pack.
At the other end it looks wide open. Ten sides are priced 13/2 or shorter by Sky Bet, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them drop. It looks like a minefield, but if I had to take an educated punt it'd be on Lecce at 10/3, who have continuity but their underlying data was simply shocking last season.
Morata's the man
The main bet that appealed in Italy though came in the TOP GOALSCORER market, where ALVARO MORATA looks a tad big at 12/1.
Reigning champion Lautaro Martinez is the man to beat yet again and is priced accordingly at 7/4. The Argentine hammered in 24 goals last term to take the gong, and will again be starting for the title favourites.
Big names follow in the betting. Dusan Vlahovic of Juventus is 11/2, Napoli's 22/23 Serie A leading scorer Victor Osimhen is 13/2, as is Roma's new signing Artem Dovbyk, who is fresh from winning the La Liga scoring title with Girona.
All three of those, plus Martinez, are the starting strikers for clubs at the top end of the table, yet Alvaro Morata, who is the starting striker for the team third favourite to win the title, is nearly double the price.
Milan last season racked up the second most xG in Serie A, and after switching from Pioli to Fonseca, we can expect similar if not maybe an improvement given the attacking nature of the new coach. Olivier Giroud was Milan's top scorer last season with 15 in limited minutes, with an xG per 90 of 0.58, and if Morata gets the same service, he'll be able to notch plenty this term.
While not known as a top striker, Morata does have a real knack of getting into good scoring positions very regularly, no matter the team he plays for.
Over the last 10 seasons, across which he has played for Juventus, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Juventus again and Atletico again - elite level clubs - the Spaniard has averaged 0.58 xG per 90 and 0.53 goals per 90. Morata is extremely effective.
Last season he notched 15 goals in 1909 La Liga minutes for Atleti (0.71 per 90) and averaged 0.65 xG per 90. He impressed at the Euros too when captaining Spain to the title, so hopefully he brings his form with him to Italy.
Injuries and playing time have been an issue, though hopefully at Milan the latter isn't a problem given he is the only number nine in the squad (at the time of writing), so we just need him to stay fit and he will surely give us a run for our money in an attack-minded Milan side.
Ligue 1
With no Kylian Mbappe, this could be the season we either see the very best 'team' version of PSG, or a different side winning the Ligue 1 title. With Mbappe last season, Luis Enrique's men won the title by nine points, though the gap in underlying process between them and second place wasn't as wide as in recent years.
Les Parisiens are again short favourites at 1/4 to win the title, and that does look highly likely given the calibre of their manager and the depth of squad. The race for a European place looks set to be a cracker though, with five or six teams all in with a chance of finishing in the TOP THREE, but MONACO look the value play at 2/1.
They finished runners-up last season after a solid campaign under Adi Hutter, and they have kept the majority of their starting XI. The only exceptions being captain and top scorer Wissam Ben Yedder and midfielder Mohamed Camara, though they look to have replaced both.
Young striker George Ilenikhena has been brought in from Royal Antwerp, fresh off netting eight goals in 950 minutes in the Belgian league, but they did sign Folarin Balogun last window and have Breel Embolo back fit to bolster their attacking rankings, while Mohamed Camara has been replaced by Lamine Camara.
Continuity is key, and if they can maintain the same level of process as last season (1.91 xGF, 1.36 xGA per game), there is no reason to think they won't be the ones to chase PSG home yet again.
For those who want more security, some bookies are offering a top four market, with it 5/4 about Monaco finishing in that quartet. Of the other challengers, it seems highly unlikely that last season's surprise package Brest will be able to sustain their levels, though it has to be said that all of Lens, Nice and Lille have potential to be dangerous after coaching changes to the former pair. Nice have brought in Lens' manager Franck Haise, while Lens have appointed Will Still.
As do Marseille, who welcome Roberto De Zerbi. They were the team I was wrestling with. Last season their underlying data was excellent, being incredibly unfortunate to finish eighth and miss out on European football. They were the second best defensive team in the league on xG, but with De Zerbi at the helm, can we trust that to continue?
Probably not, though they will be fun to watch and will be battling it out for the top three, especially without any European football. Then there is Lyon, who were in the relegation zone for most of the season only to win 15 of their last 20 matches to surge into sixth spot. They were riding the crest of a wave, and getting fortunate in tight games, something that won't be sustainable over a larger sample.
In the end, despite it being extremely competitive at the top end of Ligue 1, Monaco are the only team who look reliable and strong enough to back.
Odds correct at 1030 BST (13/08/24)
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