Football betting tips: World Cup
1pt Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 10/3 (General)
*1.5pts Draw after 90 mins at 21/10 (Betfred)
*1pt Game decided after penalties at 4/1 (bet365)
*Advised elsewhere on Sporting Life
1pt Harry Kane 1+ assists at 15/2 (Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Nico O'Reilly to score anytime at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt O'Reilly to score 2+ goals at 150/1 (bet365)
0.5pt O'Reilly to score a header at 28/1 (William Hill)
What a mouthwatering tie this is.
When England last faced Argentina on the biggest stage it was the third time they had done so in four World Cup appearances, helping build a rivalry already stoked by the 1980s Falklands War, Diego Maradona's Hand of God and a David Beckham red card.
Twenty-four years on from Beckham's redemption in Sapporo they renew acquaintances, with England one game away from reaching a first World Cup final since 1966 and a first ever on foreign soil.
Elsewhere on the website I've backed the DRAW AFTER 90 MINUTES (21/10) and GAME TO BE DECIDED AFTER PENALTIES (4/1)
Since 1982 seven of 20 (35%) semi-finals have been level after 90 minutes, with five of those going the distance.
While England may be favoured by the bookies you'd be hard pressed to find anyone bullishly predicting a comfortable win for Thomas Tuchel's men. Neither they nor the holders have been spectacular, dragged through by their star players rather than inspiring confidence through strong performances.
Remarkably, over an incredible career spanning more than two decades Lionel Messi has never faced England. As he looks to fire his team into another final, the Three Lions man most likely to be trying to do the same is JUDE BELLINGHAM.
He is England's joint top scorer alongside Harry Kane with six goals and became the first player to score 2+ goals in consecutive World Cup knockout games since Maradona in 1986 with a match-winning brace against Norway.
The 10/3 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME looks large considering how the rest of the tournament's leading scorers have been priced for these semi-finals.
Kane and Messi are generally 13/10, while Kylian Mbappe (11/10) and Ousmane Dembele (23/10) were also markedly shorter ahead of France against Spain.
Score prediction: England 1-1 Argentina
Argentina's path has not been the straightforward cruise to the semi-finals which we expected.
Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland have all proven to be awkward opponents but they've managed to find a way through each time - perhaps that is the true sign of champions.
England haven't been in a comfortable position either but then this is what Tuchel expected. His public prediction of their path so far has been accurate.
Following on from Joe's point on Bellingham, the midfielder seems to have established himself as England's main attacking threat with Kane given more freedom to drop deeper and try to create - his style which we're all too familiar with.
He's created a chance in each of the three knockout appearances so far making the 15/2 for 1+ ASSISTS an appealing route in this game - something he achieved in that win over Mexico.
For those with a Sky Bet account, the 6/4 available on Kane 2+ shots created is another bet to consider but it won't make the staking plan given the lack of availability for this market with other firms.
The striker averaged over one chance created per game in the Bundesliga, Champions League and Club World Cup last season. I'll not go on any further into the numbers given we're all fully aware of his playing style.
The 6/1 and 11/2 prices with firms offering the extra-time & super sub promotions are more than fine too if you'd prefer the 'safety' net of those offers.
I fancy England to get the job done in 90 minutes though, with Kane holding a vital role once again.
Score prediction: England 2-0 Argentina
The outlay on NICO O’REILLY TO SCORE ANYTIME, TO SCORE 2+ GOALS and TO SCORE A HEADER has been 9.5pts this summer, soon to be 11.5pts, and nothing returned.
With bet365, he’s 12s to score and 150s to score a brace on Wednesday, which includes extra time and their super sub offer. And the 28s about him scoring a header is really tempting.
The issue is, apart from the fact he hasn’t scored, he seems to be regressing. Having started the tournament well, in terms of general performances and attacking output, he’s faded.
O’Reilly had more shots in his first two appearances (4) then he has in his last four (3). What’s more, his role attacking set pieces appears to have changed.
Against Croatia, he was the one peeling round the back and attacking the ball. He had two shots that evening, both very good chances and missed them both.
Since then, he’s been the one who stands on the keeper and none of his last two shots have come from set pieces.
O’Reilly’s still in the box for dead balls though, and Egypt’s opener against Argentina in the round of 16 came from a corner, which bodes well.
Plus, from open play O’Reilly’s still popping up in advanced positions.
He popped up inside the box to dangle his leg towards a cross against DR Congo - a chance worth 0.44 expected-goals (xG). He had a shot from outside the box following a long throw-in against Mexico, which hit the post via a deflection from Bellingham (0.06 xG). And, just before the hydration break in the quarters against Norway, he couldn’t quiet control a dangerous cross from Noni Madueke.
Perhaps, I should cut my losses but I can’t help but feel this is the perfect match-up because of who O’Reilly will be up against on Wednesday.
Messi will be drifting around the right wing region for Argentina. Famously good on the ball, infamously bad at defending, the latter is laid bare across the knock out stage.
If you look at Messi’s heatmap for the knockouts and compare it to opposition players who occupied similar regions on the pitch, the majority of them had some joy attacking.
Against Cape Verde, Deroy Duarte (LCM) and Sidney Cabral (LB) both scored with the duo and left sided midfielder Jovane Cabral combining to have five shots.
In the next round, Mostafa Zico scored Egypt’s second from a fast break. On paper Zico was playing upfront but he actually spent the majority of the game on the left.
Interestingly, Trezeguet came off the bench to play on the left and had two shots and the only other shot the North Africans had came from their left back Karim Hafez.
Against Switzerland in the quarters, more than half of the Swiss shots (6) came from Dan Ndoye (LM) and Granit Xhaka (LCM), the former scoring the equaliser which was set up by their left back Ricardo Rodriguez.
So, foolishly, I think the Three Lions could have some joy down the left which brings O’Reilly’s ever increasing prices in the goalscorer markets into play.
Score prediction: England 3-1 Argentina
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (14/07/26)
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