Gerwyn Price resumes his World Championship title bid on Monday night

PDC World Championship darts: Day 11 predictions, odds, betting tips, accas, order of play & TV times

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Mon December 28, 2020 · 5y ago

Our guide to Monday's third-round action at the PDC's William Hill World Darts Championship includes the order of play, match-by-match previews, predictions, seasonal statistics, head-to-head records, odds and a suggested acca.

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Five realistic title contenders and a handful of live outsiders take to the oche on Monday as the World Championship continues to gather pace towards the business end of the tournament but who will keep their dreams alive.

We preview all six matches across both sessions while at the very bottom of you'll find graphics of every player's season stats as well as an additional one to chart how successful they've all been in achieving the 'Match Treble' in all their PDC matches this year (winning with the most 180s and highest checkouts).

World Championship: Monday December 28

TV Coverage: Sky Sports Darts (1200 & 1800 GMT)
Third Round: Best of 7 sets, no tie-breakers in any set

Monday darts accas

De Sousa, Van Duijvenbode (-1.5) & Aspinall (-1.5) at 3/1
Suljovic, Price match treble, Baggish (+1.5 sets) at 9.45/1
Click here to build your acca

AFTERNOON SESSION (1200 GMT)

Jose De Sousa (4/9) v Mervyn King (7/4)

Head to Head: 1-0
2020 Meetings: 0-0
PDC Titles this Season: 2-0 (TV: 1-0)
Career PDC Titles: 4-8 (TV: 1-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 3-13
PDC World Championship Best: First Round (2019, 2020) - Semi-Finals (2009)

Jose De Sousa was a popular choice with many darts fans to go all the way after a breathtaking season - particularly in the last six months - and now he's finally broken his duck on the Ally Pally stage, his backers will be brimming with confidence over his prospects.

Sure, it wasn't a vintage performance against Ross Smith as the pair both averaged just shy of 94, but having fallen at the first hurdle in all three of his previous appearances, the most important thing was just to get that win on the board and be able to start again without any mental blocks post Christmas.

My main concern about his chances predominantly surrounded that dicey opener against a very talented Smith, so I expect a much improved display from a player who has revelled in the behind closed doors major setting this year.

Having brilliantly won the Grand Slam of Darts in November, he was again looking impressive at the Players Championship Finals until Michael Smith defied his 103 average in a 10-7 third-round defeat and those are the levels we'll be expecting against a revived Mervyn King, who was runner-up in that event.

The 54-year-old will probably still be kicking himself about that deciding leg heartbreak against MVG but he didn't show it against Max Hopp as brushed aside the German 3-1 with a 100 average that was enhanced by his five 180s and clinical finishing of 44%.

King is undoubtedly playing some of the best darts of his recent career and the only real question mark about whether he can go too much further is his mental stamina and maintaining his standards in the longer set play formats.

For now though, this should be a close duel packed full of 180s and a cluster of 100+ checkouts, especially from De Sousa who is one of the strongest on the circuit in that area of the game. Irrespective of how unconventionally he achieves them!

Score Prediction: 4-2
Suggested Bet: Match to have over 20.5 legs, highest checkout to be over 121.5 and over 10.5 total 180s at evens

Dirk van Duijvenbode (1/3) v Adam Hunt (23/10)

Head to Head: 2-3
2020 Meetings: 1-1
PDC Titles this Season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 1-1
PDC World Championship Best: First Round (2016) - 1st Round (2019)

This is a clash between two players in uncharted waters on the Ally Pally stage and both will view this as an incredible opportunity to strengthen the foundations of their budding careers.

Dirk van Duijvenbode has obviously made giant strides since winning back his Tour Card at qualifying school in January, having finished runner-up to Gerwyn Price at the World Grand Prix before backing it up with two other major quarter-finals runs and he'll have his eyes firmly set on cracking the top 32 and even 16 in the very near future.

Adam Hunt, who also won his Tour Card back, has enjoyed a steady - if not spectacular - rise and is now guaranteed to be in the world's top 64 whatever happens, but another win will give him a stronger financial platform to build on next year.

Neither have gone this far before but obviously van Duijvenbode has plenty more experience of winning on the biggest stages and, more importantly, it's all so fresh in the mind and he's revelling his ride on a crest of a wave - even in adversity.

He looked down and out at 2-0 against Bradley Brooks but then came storming back by winning nine of the next 10 legs to advance 3-2 before showing nerves of steel to take out 99 in a deciding leg to beat Rob Cross 3-2 when the former world champion was waiting on 12 for the match.

He's averaged 93 and 96 in those two wins, in which he's thrown a combined 12 maximums, while Hunt averaged 94 with four maximums in a 3-2 triumph over Lisa Ashton before recording a mark of 92 with another four against Jamie Hughes, who struggled badly with an injury.

The Aubergine wielding Dutchman is on operating consistently at a better level right now and should be about to reach the Player Performance targets below pretty comfortably.

Score Prediction: 4-2
Suggested Bet: Dirk van Duijvenbode to win the match, score over 5.5 180s and checkout over 101.5 at 13/8

Nathan Aspinall (4/11) v Vincent van der Voort (11/5)

Head to Head: 5-2
2020 Meetings: 1-0
PDC Titles this Season: 2-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 5-0 (TV: 2-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 2-13
PDC World Championship Best: Semi-Final (2019, 2020) - Quarter-Finals (2011, 2015)

Nathan Aspinall probably shouldn't still be here but having survived a massive scare against Scott Waites, you'd like to think he's put that out of his mind and regrouped ahead of another potentially dangerous clash with Vincent van der Voort.

One of his biggest attributes is his fighting spirit and that came to the fore once again when he trailed the two-time Lakeside king 2-0 before digging deep to force a deciding set despite playing nowhere near his best.

Even then, he slipped to the brink of defeat when Waites moved 2-1 up with a spectacular 125 checkout featuring two bullseyes and then had to watch his opponent spurn four match darts in the most dramatic of climaxes.

👏👏👏👏👏 Scott Waites may have lost an incredible match with Nathan Aspinall, but this BULL-25-BULL checkout in a deciding set really deserves some appreciation! pic.twitter.com/axlBFWa7y7
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) December 23, 2020

His cheery mindset away from the oche meant he could "joke" about it being a sign that he'd become world champion but he will have to improve significantly on his 92 average if he's to emulate his back-to-back semi-final runs here - or even go a couple of steps further.

Van der Voort, who could so easily have reached the World Matchplay semi-finals this year had he not imploded against Glen Durrant during the closing stages of his 18-16 defeat, arrived at the Ally Pally on the back of some pretty solid floor form at the Winter Series - reaching a semi-final and a quarter-final - although it was his experience of 14th World Championship campaigns that helped him edge out Ron Meulenkamp 3-2 with a 14-darter in the decider.

He averaged a highly credible 95.49 and if he gets going again, he'll be a real handful.

I'd still expect Aspinall, who is one of my outright tips for glory, to rise to the test but as far as a betting angle is concerned for this, I like the look of the Stockport star rattling in a couple of 100+ checkouts at 5/4. He managed three against Waites, including a stunning 160, and will get plenty of chances in a match which could easily see six sets. But hopefully not more for the sake of my nerves.

Score Prediction: 4-2
Suggested Bet: Nathan Aspinall to hit two or more 100+ checkouts at 5/4

EVENING SESSION (1800 GMT)

Gary Anderson (4/6) v Mensur Suljovic (6/5)

Head to Head: 6-4
2020 Meetings: 0-0
PDC Titles this Season: 1-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 40-7 (TV: 15-1)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 11-10
PDC World Championship Best: Winner (2015, 2016) - Third Round (2011, 206, 2018)

There was a time when Gary Anderson's bogey player was Mensur Suljovic and while the pair's paths haven't crossed since 2018, it will be a narrative retold in the build up to an encounter that's almost guaranteed to be a tense, mentally draining affair.

From a results perspective, however, this is something of a myth and all stems back to a couple of matches at the 2017 Champions of League of Darts, when Suljovic beat him twice including the final to land his maiden televised title.

However, Anderson got his revenge with four victories on the trot in the 2017 Grand Slam of Darts, Premier League, 'that' World Matchplay final and the semi-finals of the 2018 Champions League, which he went on to win so its fair to say he found a way to adapt and deal with the Austrian's awkward slow style.

He still won't enjoy coming up against it once again, especially when he's not physically 100% and will be on his feet for a long time unless one of his trademark blitzes can be maintained for the first four sets - and that's unlikely given the inconsistent standard he's been producing all season.

Suljovic comes into this clash on the back of beating Matthew Edgar 3-1 with an average of 98, seven 180s, a high checkout of 161 and 46% on his doubles, while Anderson managed 97 against Madars Razma, four maximums, a 140 out and 38% on doubles.

Not really much between them but if it goes to six sets and beyond then I fancy Suljovic to grind him down and go further than he ever has on the Ally Pally Stage.

Score Prediction: 2-4
Suggested Bet: Mensur Suljovic to win the match, score over 4.5 180s and checkout over 100.5 at 9/4

Gerwyn Price (1/5) v Brendan Dolan (7/2)

Head to Head: 3-3
2020 Meetings: 0-0
PDC Titles this Season: 8-0 (TV: 2-0)
Career PDC Titles: 17-6 (TV: 5-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 6-12
PDC World Championship Best: Semi-Final (2020) - Quarter Final (2019)

Gerwyn Price's half of the draw has been blown open by Peter Wright's shock exit but the Welshman still needs to take care of three more opponents in his quarter before he can even start to think about the possibility of taking advantage.

Top stay on course for potential battles with fellow title contenders Jose De Sousa and Nathan Aspinall, he must next take care of Brendan Dolan, who could make his life difficult if he's not fired up enough to deliver his best.

The lack of crowds certainly hinders the Iceman from that perspective a lot more than it does Dolan although he still managed to win two of his three televised events this season without them so let's not hinge too much importance on it.

Price's main concern is the lack of consistent scoring power he's been producing - by his own high standards of course - and despite weighing in with plenty of 180s and an array of 100+ checkouts, he's failed to average over 100 in his last seven matches, which have all been on the televised stages of the Grand Slam of Darts, Players Championship Finals and his opening clash at the Ally Pally against Jamie Lewis.

His last ton+ effort was 106 in his final Grand Slam group game against Ryan Joyce but that had followed two marks in the 80s, while during the Winter Series, he managed the feat just twice in 10 matches across the three days he participated - albeit on one of those he walked off with a title.

Against Lewis last time out, he averaged 92 in a nervy 3-2 victory despite his five maximums and four ton+ checkouts, including a stunning effort of 160, and I can see Dolan's style of play dragging him into a similarly stressful battle.

As previously inferred, Price remains one of the most prolific 100+ checkout shooters on tour regardless of his overall form, winning almost 15% of his legs that way so his Player Performance targets below should be achieved even if he's off his top game again.

Dolan averaged 90 in a lethargic 3-1 win over Edward Foulkes which featured just a couple of 180s but he did reach the quarter-finals here two years ago and can at least make this one awkward.

Score Prediction: 4-2
Suggested Bet: Gerwyn Price to win the match, score over 4.5 180s and checkout over 108.5 at 11/10

Glen Durrant (1/3) v Danny Baggish (23/10)

Head to Head: 0-0
2020 Meetings: 0-0
PDC Titles this Season: 1-0 (TV: 1-0)
Career PDC Titles: 3-0 (TV: 1-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 1-1
PDC World Championship Best: Quarter-Finals (2020) - Second Round (2020)

Glen Durrant's draw and schedule were pretty kind to him in terms of giving him the best chance of returning to full health in time for the business stage of the World Championship - and he'll certainly need to be very close to that point if he's to avoid an upset against the impressive Danny Baggish.

Since reaching the quarter-finals on debut 12 months ago, Duzza was enjoying another stellar season by reaching the World Matchplay semi-finals for the second year in a row before winning a maiden major PDC title on Premier League Finals night.

Although that was only in October, it feels like a lifetime ago now and his slow recovery from a bout of Covid-19 meant he managed just three victories in his last 13 matches prior to the World Championship, losing all of his previous seven.

After a couple more weeks to practice and recharge his batteries, he still looked well below his best when registering an average of 88 in a 3-0 win over Diogo Portela on night two despite converting 65% of his doubles, so he'll no doubt have been pleased to have another 11 nights to wait until his next match.

During that time, the pumped up Baggish caused two surprises by knocking out both Damon Heta and Adrian Lewis thanks to a pair of brilliant 'match play' performances in which he held his nerve tremendously when his opponents failed to handle the pressure in key moments.

The American averaged 88 against Heta, who spurned six match darts after coming from 2-0 down to force a deciding set, and then upped his levels to 93.39 in a 3-1 triumph over Lewis which included a brilliant 170 checkout. Baggish, who came into the clash shortly after finding out his brother had suffered a stroke in Florida, kept his composure despite Jackpot's barrage of 180s and it's no wonder many darts fans want him to give Q School a crack in January.

It's very tough to call given the uncertainty surrounding Durrant so it's perhaps worth playing safe and back Baggish on the handicap.

Score Prediction: 4-3
Suggested Bet: Baggish (+1.5 sets) at 11/8

Season Statistics

To help you with your bets throughout the tournament, here are some excellent statistical graphs for every player in the field from Darts Tracker creator and Sporting Life contributor Carl Fletcher (@CarlyFletch & @Darts_Tracker on Twitter), while there is an additional graphic at the bottom charting each player’s frequency of bringing up the ‘Match Treble’ in PDC events this season. That is when they win, throw most 180s and hit the highest checkout. You can read more about Carl’s research on that by clicking here.

NB: Averages & 180 per leg data covers events except World Grand Prix (which is double-start and distorts figures), 100+ checkout % is all events, and doubles percentage is stage events only (majors and European Tour) because definitive double stats for Players Championship events aren't available.