The second half of the Unibet Premier League Darts season continues on Thursday night and our match-by-match guide includes statistics, predictions best bets and an acca.
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The race for the play-off continues to heat up at the Marshall Arena this week and there's just five points separating second-placed Michael van Gerwen with eighth-placed Gary Anderson.
The Flying Scotsman is in desperate need of a victory in what really is a defining match against Peter Wright this evening. The top four all meet with Dimitri Van Den Bergh v Nathan Aspinall and MVG v Jonny Clayton taking centre stage while Jose De Sousa has the opportunity to create a gap between the top five and the rest in his match up against James Wade. It promises to be an intriguing and pivotal night of action.
Here, Carl Fletcher looks ahead to Thursday's four fixtures...
Premier League Night 11: May 6
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 BST)
- Format: Maximum of 14 legs
- Suggested Acca: Van Den Bergh, De Sousa and Clayton to win at 11.03/1 (Sky Bet)
Nathan Aspinall (7/4) v Dimitri Van den Bergh (11/10), Draw (3/1)
- Head to Head: 4-4 (TV: 1-4)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 0-4 (TV: 0-4)
- Last Meeting: 5-7 (Premier League 2021, April)
- Career PDC Titles: 5-2 (TV: 2-1)
- PDC Titles this season: 0-1 (TV: 0-0)
- Premier League Average this season: 98.51 - 99.22
- Premier League 180’s this season: 31 - 45
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 7 - 8 (High Finish: 161 – 164)
- Premier League checkout percentage: 50.38% - 38.06%
- Premier League Position: 1st – 3rd (15 Pts – 13 Pts)
- Premier League leg difference: +19 / +9
Nathan Aspinall continues to grind out results in this year’s Premier League and he did so once again last night despite a low key performance against Peter Wright. Nonetheless at this stage it’s the points that matter as all that’s important really is finishing in the top four and securing your place at Play-Offs night.
‘The Asp’ sits top of the pile now with a two point cushion from MVG in second but more importantly four points ahead of fifth place Jose De Sousa. His average against ‘Snakebite’ was just 93.81, way below his current tournament average of 98.16 but his finishing was once again ultra-consistent. He hit 53.33% of his doubles and the highlight of the match was a 161 checkout – the highest finish of the evening on Wednesday night – as he battled back from trailing 4-2 to claim an all-important 8-5 victory.
Dimitri Van Den Bergh on the other hand found himself on the end of a phenomenal performance from MVG as he was trounced 8-3 despite averaging 106.78 himself. There wasn’t a great deal wrong with his own display - in fact it was his fifth 100+ average in ten matches in this year’s Premier League - it was just a ruthless, efficient performance by his opponent.
He’ll need to put that behind him and just move on; with the league so tight this game now becomes more important than last nights for the young Belgian as the margin for error becomes less with fewer games remaining. He can gain some comfort going into this match knowing that he’s the only player to have inflicted a defeat on Nathan in this year’s event, when he defeated him 7-5 on the second night of action.
He was probably slightly fortunate to come out on top in that match to claim the two points as ‘The Asp’ led 5-3 and missed a dart at double sixteen to claim a point but don’t take anything away from the late rally Dimi produced. In the second half of the match, he averaged 113.23, throughout the duration of the match his first nine dart average was 126.00 and he hit seven 180’s on the night as he closed the final three legs out in emphatic fashion with winning legs of 13, 11 and 12 darts.
These pair have met eight times in total, Nathan winning the first four clashes and Dimi winning the last four, these all being since the beginning of 2020.
I think, like their previous match on night two this will be another tight encounter. I’m siding with Van Den Bergh returning to winning ways with a glut of 180’s and some excellent combination. Dimi has registered the highest checkout on four of the ten nights, Nathan himself twice including last night plus no one has left the big fish more often through this event than him with eight. Is this the night we see it hit?
- Predicted Scoreline: 6-8
- Suggested Bet: Match over 12.5 legs, highest checkouts over 105.5, over 6.5 180’s at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- Suggested Bet: Either player to hit a 170 checkout at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
James Wade (15/8) v Jose De Sousa (10/11), Draw (7/2)
- Head to Head: 2-2 (TV: 0-2)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 0-2 (TV: 0-2)
- Last Meeting: 5-7 (Premier League 2021, April)
- Career PDC Titles: 38-4 (TV: 11-1)
- PDC Titles this season: 1-1 (TV: 1-0)
- Premier League Average this season: 96.97 - 99.97
- Premier League 180’s this season: 22 - 54
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 10 - 3 (High Finish: 152 – 141)
- Premier League checkout percentage: 50.89% - 41.26%
- Premier League Position: 6th – 5th (10 Pts – 11 Pts)
- Premier League leg difference: +4 / +5
James Wade was firmly put to the sword by Jonny Clayton last night despite a 100% record on his doubles and even on out shots. He only managed to achieve five attempts at checkouts and he nailed all five – 86, 121, 52, 78 and 24. There was certainly nothing wrong with his finishing it was the fact he was massively out scored by the Welshman, in fact the first nine dart average of ‘The Machine’ was a miserly 83.69.
He’ll be bitterly disappointed with that as he was chasing a fifth consecutive televised game with a 100+ average, something he’d never achieved before but more importantly he dropped from fourth place to sixth and now sits two points behind a Play-Off spot and just two points above eighth place. Make no bones about it, with tonight’s opponent sitting in fifth one point better off than him, this is a big game for Wade and one he arguably can’t afford to lose.
If he repeats last night’s standard however here, he’ll be in big trouble. He started legs slowly, again just averaging 84.69 with his first visit per leg and his accuracy on Treble 20 and Treble 19 was poor at just 32.8% and 10.5% respectively.
De Sousa on the other hand is a power scorer. He didn’t start great himself last night but he seemed to find his range in the latter stages of his comfortable 8-3 victory over Gary Anderson. In the final six legs, he hit four 180’s and a 171 to run out a facile winner as he ended up with a 99.28 average and a 50% record on his doubles.
‘The Special One’ produced a first nine average against ‘The Flying Scotsman’ of 108.64, some 25 points higher than Wade’s last night and in keeping with his tournament first nine average of 110.60. The worrying thing for Wade supporters is that De Sousa is looking increasingly comfortable on the Premier League stage and has even more to give.
A victory tonight would see him create a three point gap over sixth placed Wade which depending upon other results could see the top five beginning to break away from the others. Buoyed by his previous victory over Wade in this year event and confidence on the back of a recent Pro Tour success I expect De Sousa to continue is pursuit of a top four place and be too strong overall for his opponent.
In his last twelve matches in all competitions we’ve seen him produce averages of 111.06, 114.08 and 117.12 and it’s now 34 matches since his standard has dropped below the 90 mark. His seasonal average of 98.86 is now the mean for Jose, you just know he’s going to be around that standard or better.
- Predicted Scoreline: 5-8
- Suggested Bet: Jose De Sousa to win 8-5 or 8-6 at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Gary Anderson (15/8) v Peter Wright (10/11), Draw (7/2)
- Head to Head: 27-19, 3 draws (TV: 12-6, 3 draws)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 1-2, 1 draw (TV: 1-2, 1 draw)
- Last Meeting: 4-7 (Premier League 2021, April)
- Career PDC Titles: 46-35 (TV: 15-8)
- PDC Titles this season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
- Premier League Average this season: 95.52 - 96.5
- Premier League 180’s this season: 35 - 27
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 5 - 7 (High Finish: 156 – 156)
- Premier League checkout percentage: 34.23% - 42.06%
- Premier League Position: 8th – 7th (8 Pts – 9 Pts)
- Premier League leg difference: -9 / -4
It was mentioned in commentary last night that this has now become a game neither can afford to lose and you’d have to agree with those sentiments. The players currently sit in eight and seven place respectively and are in danger of becoming cut adrift from their opponents and certainly languishing well away from a top four berth.
Both players lost last night and both were way below the standard we expect from them. Anderson lost 8-3 to De Sousa averaging 93.62 and Wright lost 8-5 to Aspinall with just an 88.52 average. Both have something to prove this evening.
‘The Flying Scotsman’ comes into this with a real urgency to improve; in his last twenty matches he’s only won six matches and two of his three victories in this event so far have been against the two eliminated players.
Of the eight players remaining his seasonal average is the lowest at just 94.82 and he’s only managed three ton plus averages all year. His tournament stats don’t offer much greater encouragement either, his tournament averages of these eight is the lowest at 95.60, his doubles percentage is just 34.23% and he’s come to the oche needing a double with three darts in hand on thirty five occasions so far and checked out just 24 times (68.57%), even one of his ‘go to’ doubles has deserted him, with a record of just 14.29% on Double 10 (3/21).
If there’s a saving grace for Anderson, it’s that Wright isn’t exactly in the best form himself and last night’s performance and result underlines just that as he couldn’t take advantage against an under-par Nathan Aspinall.
That was the second time in this year’s Premier League that ‘Snakebite’ has produced a sub 90 average the other being in a crushing defeat against Michael Van Gerwen. Similarly to Anderson, two of Wrights three victories have come against the two eliminated players, the other more interestingly against Gary himself on night three, 7-4 in what was a decent contest.
On a positive note for ‘Snakebite’ his doubles percentage for the event is a respectable 42.06% and it’s the best under pressure, with last dart in hand he boasts an excellent 52.94% efficiency. This could be the difference between the pair in what promises to be a very nervy affair.
It’s very hard to spit these two and in meetings during 2020 they both won a match each and draw the other from their three encounters. If I was going to side with a player I’d just favour Wright but I’m going to sit on the fence here and go for the draw despite that outcome probably being no good for either player.
- Predicted Scoreline: 7-7
- Suggested Bet: Match to be a draw at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Michael van Gerwen (4/5) v Jonny Clayton (2/1), Draw (7/2)
- Head to Head: 11-7 (TV: 5-4)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 1-4 (TV: 1-3)
- Last Meeting: 3-7 (Premier League 2021, April)
- Career PDC Titles: 138-7 (TV: 55-2)
- PDC Titles this season: 0-3 (TV: 0-1)
- Premier League Average this season: 98.21 - 101.55
- Premier League 180’s this season: 24 - 40
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 10 - 7 (High Finish: 148 – 150)
- Premier League checkout percentage: 38.22% - 37.84%
- Premier League Position: 2nd – 4th (13 Pts – 12 Pts)
- Premier League leg difference: +13 / +5
This promises to be the clash of the night.
Michael Van Gerwen comes into this match on the back of a phenomenal performance in what was a high quality match against Dimitri Van Den Bergh last night. The 8-3 victory and 109.96 average will have done wonders for his confidence and will have silenced some of his recent doubters.
The problem is we’ve said this before. He beat Rob Cross on night three averaging 107.58 only to follow that up with a 90.91 average and thumping defeat against James Wade. He averaged 104.72 to beat Jose De Sousa on night eight only to follow that up with a 91.01 average and notably another thumping defeat at the hands of tonight’s opponent. The question is which MVG is going to turn up?
Whilst I may not be able to predict that, what I am confident of is that anything below his best here and he’ll get turned over against the inform Jonny Clayton. ‘The Ferret’ currently sits in fourth place, one point behind second placed MVG in the standings but boasts the highest tournament average at 101.52.
Whereas Van Gerwen hasn’t been the most consistent, Clayton has. His lowest average in this year’s event is 95.98, he’s averaged 99+ in eight of his matches and 100+ in six of them. Yes, he’s had problems here and there on his doubles but his combination finishing has been excellent. So far in the Premier League on combination shots between 3-80 he’s checked out 23 of 32 attempts (71.9%). That might not sound overly impressive but it enables you to keep pinching legs from under the nose of your opponent just when they think they’ve got a chance of winning the leg themselves.
Their head during 2021 favours the Welshman too. Three meetings, three victories, two of which were on TV. A 10-9 victory in the Masters at the start of the year was backed up with a 6-1 victory in a Players Championship event in February, then most recently Jonny thumped MVG in their earlier Premier League match up in the opening phase. On each of these occasions he’s also averaged the higher of the two.
We’ve seen glimpses of the immense MVG at times but for me the safer proposition is to side with the form player of 2021, Jonny Clayton. Van Gerwen had an unforgettable super series in Germany recently where he averaged just 93.39 across the four days and struggled to hit top form. Clayton on the other hand is averaging 99.97 for the whole of 2021 and as produced a 100+ average performance in 29 of the 57 matches he’s played. It’s that consistency and the stronger 180 hitting ability that gives him the edge in this match and that will present him with enough chances to seal the victory.
- Predicted Scoreline: 5-8
- Suggested Bet: Clayton to win the match and hit the most 180’s at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
2021 Premier League Darts Table
- Nathan Aspinall P 10 W 6 D 3 L 1 LegD +19 Pts 15
- Michael van Gerwen P 10 W 5 D 3 L 2 LegD +13 Pts 13
- Dimitri Van den Bergh P 10 W 5 D 3 L 2 LegD +9 Pts 13
- Jonny Clayton P 10 W 5 D 2 L 3 LegD +5 Pts 12
- Jose de Sousa P 10 W 4 D 3 L 3 LegD +5 Pts 11
- James Wade P 10 W 4 D 2 L 4 LegD +4 Pts 10
- Peter Wright P 10 W 3 D 3 L 4 LegD -4 Pts 9
- Gary Anderson P 10 W 3 D 2 L 5 LegD -9 Pts 8
- Rob Cross P 9 W 3 D 1 L 5 LegD -3 Pts 7 (ELIMINATED)
- Glen Durrant P 9 W 0 D 0 L 9 LegD -39 Pts 0 (ELIMINATED)
- The top four after 16 games qualify for the end of season play-offs, where the title will be decided
- Players earn two points for a win, and one for a draw.
- When players are tied on points, leg difference is used first as a tie-breaker, after that legs won against throw and then tournament average.
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