Snooker betting tips: Preview and best bets for English Open
Richard Mann previews the English Open which will see Judd Trump bid to successfully defend the title he won in dramatic fashion just over a year ago.
Snooker betting tips: English Open
2pts Judd Trump to win the English Open at 4/1 (General)
JUDD TRUMP once again underlined his status as the best player in the world when he won the English Open last year and he is fancied to successfully defend his crown in Milton Keynes in the coming days.
Siding with a 4/1 market leader in a Home Nations event featuring best-of-seven frames matches in the early rounds is something I’d ordinarily try to avoid, but while I won’t be going overboard in terms of stake, I do think the world number one is the man to beat and worth a bet at the prices.
Trump enjoyed another remarkable campaign last term, claiming five titles having won six the season before, and there was so much encouragement in his run to the quarter-finals of the recent Northern Ireland Open that it is hard to escape the feeling that his first title since winning the Gibraltar Open in March won’t be far away.
Much was made of Trump’s preparation for Belfast: winning a couple of matches at the British Open before flying across the Atlantic to compete in the US Open Pool Championship. However, with such a lengthy break in the calendar owing to the loss of the China-based events this year, Trump was evidently keen to keep himself busy before the season clicked into gear again and you have to admire his adventure and willingness to learn new tricks.
Though clearly struggling for consistency in the Home Nations series opener, Trump was still able to whitewash Gao Yang in the last 64 before coming through tough matches with Lu Ning and the in-form Jimmy Robertson. Those workouts should have done him plenty of good and for all he will have been left frustrated having let slip a 3-1 lead against Mark Allen in last four, there were more positives to come out of the week than not.
The fact Allen went on to lift the trophy demonstrates Trump was close, and with a couple of weeks at home to work hard on his game since, I’d be staggered if he didn’t take a big step forward in Milton Keynes.
Trump has Home Nations format nailed
Those reluctant to take short outright prices in this format would point to the fact that best-of-seven frames matches allow little room for error, but Trump has a remarkable record in this format – winning this event last year as well as three of the last four Northern Ireland Opens. In five runnings of the Scottish Open, Trump has not once failed to reach the quarter-finals.
I’ve argued before that the time to get Trump beat is in the early rounds, and while I stand by the argument that he is at his most vulnerable then, like all great players he invariably finds a way, and there is no doubt that he and Ronnie O’Sullivan hold a significant advantage by always featuring on the TV table.
A held over match against Matthew Selt is potentially tricky, but no more than any other, and while a likely rematch with the aforementioned Robertson in round one won’t be easy, it’s a test I expect Trump to pass with more comfort this time around.
From there on in, he can usually be relied upon to get stronger and stronger the closer to the weekend he gets, and though Neil Robertson or Kyren Wilson might await in the last four, neither has a straightforward passage to that stage themselves and both would be underdogs in a match with Trump anyway.
Robertson would pose an obvious threat to anyone if back to his best, as he did last year when taking Trump to a deciding frame in a brilliant final, and, as Neal Foulds argued in his column for Sporting Life earlier this week, there have been some encouraging signs from the Australian in the last few weeks.
Robertson thumped Micheal White 5-1 in qualifying for the German Masters just over a week ago and it is worth remembering that he made three finals in as many weeks a couple of seasons ago, as well as following last year’s runner-up finish in this tournament with victory at the UK Championship. When he’s hot, Robertson is red hot and very hard to stop.
O'Sullivan hard to fancy after recent implosion
Nevertheless, at this stage of the year I prefer Trump, though Robertson has to make more appeal than Ronnie O’Sullivan who won’t be in Berlin for the German Masters having been slammed 5-0 by Hossein Vafaei in qualifying this week.
O’Sullivan looked thoroughly frustrated throughout that match and having only displayed flashes of his brilliant best in Belfast, I don’t want to take 6/1 about a man who hasn’t won for over a year and lost in five finals last season.
Like Trump, O’Sullivan’s chances of a enjoying a good run will be helped by being allowed to play on the TV table throughout, but he hasn’t been at his best since winning the 2020 World Championship and I’m happy to leave him alone for now.
O’Sullivan’s relative struggles – by his own peerless standards – do make the case for Trump stronger.
Higgins vulnerable after Belfast defeat?
Just how Allen and John Higgins pull up after their epic Northern Ireland Open final adds another fascinating dimension to the week.
Higgins in particular is entitled to still be feeling sore having squandered an 8-6 lead in that match when appearing firmly on course for victory. Like O’Sullivan, Higgins has since lost in qualifying for the German Masters and I fear he might just need a tournament or two to get over Belfast.
Allen is entitled to be riding on the crest of a wave, but I won’t be underestimating how draining that first Northern Ireland Open success he has dreamt of for so long will have been on him. Clearly emotional at the end of the week, he will need to pick himself back up in Milton Keynes.
Of course, he could easily do that with his game in such good working order, but he went off the boil after winning the Champion of Champions event last season and there is no guarantee that won’t happen again.
Furthermore, Allen finds himself drawn in a devilishly tough quarter alongside the likes of O’Sullivan, Jack Lisowski, Thepchaiyah Un-Nooh and Shaun Murphy and whoever comes through that section will have earnt their money and sum.
Slick Selby hard to rule out
At the foot of the draw, I won’t put anyone off backing Mark Selby at 6/1, for all I prefer Trump on this occasion at only a few points shorter.
Wins at the Scottish Open and World Championship – the fourth time he has reigned supreme at the Crucible – last season confirmed Selby to be back to his best, and I don’t think he has played too badly in what little snooker we’ve had this term without enjoying a deep run.
That big run might not be far away and don’t be fooled into thinking this format doesn’t suit Selby: the 38-year-old has won the last two renewals of the Scottish Open as well as reaching the final and semi-finals of this event in the last two years.
Another of interest has to be Kyren Wilson, my selection in Belfast and seemingly in good shape until exiting at the last-32 stage. He needs more in order to contend here, but is clearly capable of doing just that.
With 18/1 on offer, Wilson came close to making the staking plan again, but he and Trump are drawn in the same half and it is the latter, a winning machine over the last few years, who will be solely carrying my money at a tournament that has often proved a significant pointer for the UK Championship at York in a month’s time.
Published at 2150 BST on 29/10/21
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