20:10 Kempton

Wednesday 23 October 2019

All16:4017:1017:4018:1018:4019:1019:4020:10

Wise Betting At racingtv.com Handicap

Off time: 20:13 | Winning time: 1m 12.67s

(8)

Penarth Pier⁷^{(ex 6)}

Age: 3| Weight: 9-10| J: R Havlin| T: Mrs C A Dunnett| OR: 54| C| D

2/1

Had been promising to delver for a while before things finally fell into place for the filly over 7f here last week; 1lb well in under her penalty and will be a player once more if the drop to 6f and quick reappearance don't conspire against her.

Form: 644301

(12)

Roaring Rory²³

Age: 6| Weight: 9-6| J: Lewis Edmunds| T: Ollie Pears| OR: 55| D

14/1

On a 12-race losing run stretching back to last November but well handicapped as a result. Suited by 6f and recent form suggests his turn is near; his need to prove he'll handle the track layout on his Kempton debut is a minor concern.

Form: 084673

(6)

Billyoakes^p²³

Age: 7| Weight: 9-6| J: Ben Robinson| T: Ollie Pears| OR: 55| D

16/1

Won from a 2lb lower mark at Chelmsford in May but his form since switching to his current yard has been mixed. Does have C&D experience but previous AW wins registered at Lingfield and Chelmsford respectively.

Form: 314065

(5)

Patrick⁴²

Age: 7| Weight: 9-6| J: L Morris| T: P T Midgley| OR: 55| D

10/1

Not won since February 2017 (when he was trained by Richard O'Brien in Ireland). It's been a hard slog since then and many chances have gone begging. Not one for maximum faith but held Roaring Rory at Newcastle in August and has claims on that form.

Form: 659256

(4)

Tiger Lyon^t¹⁴⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-6| J: Darragh Keenan⁽³⁾| T: J Butler| OR: 55

10/1

Had wind surgery in February and was back to form at Wolverhampton when last seen. However, the absence since May is a worry even though he's gone well when fresh before now. Poor strike-rate is a further concerning aspect to consider.

Form: 07-0062

(7)

Englishman^p²³

Age: 9| Weight: 9-5| J: Philip Prince| T: J M Bradley| OR: 54| D

20/1

Unseated the rider leaving the stalls at Wolverhampton last month and that run can safely be forgotten; but the long losing run prior to that is a greater worry. Handicapped to go well but needs to prove he can dig deep when it matters.

Form: 65737U

(11)

Te Amo Te Amo¹⁴¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-3| J: Tom Marquand| T: S Dow| OR: 53

14/1

0-8 at present and last two starts have left a lot to be desired. Yet to conclusively prove that an AW surface is ideal but the jockey booking is a positive move if he needs his mind making up for him. (Now on a career lowest mark.)

Form: 7-86490

(2)

Madame Ritz²³

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: K Shoemark| T: R T Phillips| OR: 52| D

25/1

Won on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton last February but soon lost his way; notable that he was well held in both previous starts since he returned from a break and now comes into this with a lot to prove on his Polytrack debut.

Form: 5804-00

(1)

Mercers^v1⁶

Age: 5| Weight: 9-2| J: George Rooke⁽⁷⁾| T: P Butler| OR: 51| CD

22/1

Form has been inconsistent since she won over the minimum trip at Lingfield (5f, standard) last December and is now tried in a visor in an attempt to stop the rot. (Experiments with a hood (once) and cheekpieces have also been tried before now.)

Form: 779490

(9)

Shaffire^v1⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: Charles Bishop| T: J Tuite| OR: 52

50/1

Not made any progress during a light campaign this year and the fitting of a visor needs to be the catalyst for significant improvement. (Also something to prove as this will be her debut run at this course.)

Form: 88-8088

(10)

Mayfair Madame^b1¹⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: Jason Watson| T: W S Kittow| OR: 52

20/1

Lacks consistency and hasn't even made the frame since her introduction over 5f at Windsor last April; was well beaten over C&D earlier in the month and is another who needs to be revitalised by the fitting of headgear for the first time.

Form: 748359

(3)

Independence Day²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-2| J: Joey Haynes| T: C Banham| OR: 51

11/4

Yet to win for his new yard but there have been encouraging signs posted lately. The gelding is very well handicapped on the pick of his past form and the return to 6f might also help him. Could make the frame but risky for win only.

Form: 000354

Forecasts

Penarth Pier (2/1), Independence Day (11/4), Patrick (10/1), Tiger Lyon (10/1), Roaring Rory (14/1), Te Amo Te Amo (14/1), Billyoakes (16/1), Englishman (20/1), Mayfair Madame (20/1), Mercers (22/1), Madame Ritz (25/1), Shaffire (50/1)

It can pay a dividend to give PATRICK one more throw of the dice as he's on an attractive mark and has a solid chance if he runs up to the form that saw him go close at Newcastle in August. He had Roaring Rory behind him that day and has to merit an interest now he's better off at the weights. Penarth Pier fully deserved to get her head in front last time and her willingness to battle can again seen involved at the business end. Some of those towards the bottom of the racecard are experimenting with headgear and can help ensure a strong pace, a scenario which would boost the place claims held by Independence Day, who also merits a check for each-way punters.