15:25 Chepstow

Thursday 23 August 2018

All13:4514:1514:5015:2516:0016:3017:05

bet365 EBF Novice Stakes

Off time: 15:25 | Winning time: 59.26s

(3)

Big Boots^h²⁰

Age: 2| Weight: 9-9| J: Callum Shepherd| T: M R Channon| OR: 81| D

12/1

Already has plenty of experience under his belt, has no issue with this track as he showed when a runner-up here in June, but his overall form leaves him short of a couple here and he's vulnerable to improvers too.

Form: 722762

(10)

K Club⁹⁰

Age: 2| Weight: 9-4| J: Rossa Ryan⁽³⁾| T: R Hannon| D

4/5

Kodiac filly that was very impressive on debut at Bath, missed the break but soon recovered and ran out an easy winner (second won next time to give the form a good look). That form sets the standard and she looks the one to beat.

Form: 1

(2)

Brother Bentley⁷

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: David Probert| T: R Harris

40/1

Did a little better on his second start when midfield at Wolverhampton but that was only a modest event, and he'll have more of a chance in nurseries after he gets his handicap mark today.

Form: 76

(5)

La Roca Del Fuego^t1¹³

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: S W Kelly| T: S Durack

66/1

Only beat a couple home on his Chelmsford debut but showed some early speed, and he may do better with the application of a tongue-tie today. Plenty to find all the same.

Form: 9

(8)

Oofy Prosser

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: M Harley| T: H J L Dunlop

33/1

Relatively cheap purchase, bred to be speedy but yard rarely have first time out 2yo winners and he's best watched today.

Form:

(7)

Tomahawk Ridge²⁹

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: Charlie Bennett⁽³⁾| T: J Gallagher| OR: 67

22/1

In the frame at Catterick last time but that was a weak event and he was still beaten 7l at the wining line. Showed plenty of speed there and the drop back to 5f won't be an issue, but plenty to find on form.

Form: 592

(1)

Dancing Warrior²²

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: L Morris| T: W J Knight

13/2

Showed ability on debut but improved on that at Goodwood last time, not beaten far despite finishing midfield and this looks a lot easier. Definitely one to consider for e/w purposes, and she should handle the track fine.

Form: 97

(4)

Glamorous Crescent²¹

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: Finley Marsh⁽⁵⁾| T: C Mason

100/1

Three starts so far have revealed little in the way of ability and she's been well beaten off each time. No realistic chance here.

Form: 609

(9)

Lady Aria¹³

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: Hayley Turner| T: M L W Bell

7/4

Kodiac filly that wasn't cheap at 125,000gns last October, and the form of her debut neck second to the useful Firelight looks very solid. Gets a bit of weight from K Club and should improve, so looks one of the more likely players.

Form: 2

(6)

Messua¹³

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: Nicola Currie⁽³⁾| T: J Tuite

100/1

Showed a bit more ability at Windsor (despite being a bit keen) but needs another big step up on that if she's to trouble the principals here.

Form: 65

Forecasts

K Club (4/5), Lady Aria (7/4), Dancing Warrior (13/2), Big Boots (12/1), Tomahawk Ridge (22/1), Oofy Prosser (33/1), Brother Bentley (40/1), La Roca Del Fuego (66/1), Glamorous Crescent (100/1), Messua (100/1)

K Club is the one to beat on form but it's a slight concern that we've not seen her since her debut win in May, and preference is for LADY ARIA, who shaped well against the improving Firelight on her debut and the 5lb she gets from K Club, plus the fact she may well improve plenty for that run, swings the vote her way. Dancing Warrior isn't out of this either and could reward e/w support.