14:30 Southwell

Monday 11 December 2017

All12:3013:0013:3014:0014:3015:0015:30

sunbets.co.uk Handicap

Off time: 14:31 | Winning time: 1m 29.24s

(8)

Monteverdi⁶¹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-7| J: T J Murphy| T: J A Osborne| OR: 81| D

3/1

Winning at Laytown's beach meeting two starts ago suggests he should handle this surface. He's high enough in the handicap given what's achieved, but his performance in second at Kempton last time caught the eye.

Form: 0-78812

(7)

Abraj Dubai²⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-6| J: G Lee| T: D O'Meara| OR: 80| CD

9/4

8L C&D winner on debut last time. That was probably a weak-enough affair but she won it as she liked and it would be no surprise if her opening mark of 80 turned out to be lenient in time.

Form: 1

(2)

Custard The Dragon^p²¹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-6| J: A Mullen| T: J Mackie| OR: 80| CD

14/1

Five-time C&D winner so should enjoy it here, but hasn't been running particularly well recently including at this course, and a revival is needed now.

Form: 126068

(3)

Bouclier⁵¹

Age: 7| Weight: 9-5| J: Cam Hardie| T: M & D Easterby| OR: 79| D

33/1

Ran well in better races than this for previous trainers but not so good for this yard so far and a revival is needed.

Form: 130009

(5)

Toy Theatre³⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: Alistair Rawlinson| T: M Appleby| OR: 79| D

15/2

Denied a hat-trick in a better race than this at Wolverhampton last time but was establishing herself as a 7f specialist prior to that Should be on a workable mark just 4lb above her last winning rating.

Form: 549115

(4)

Musharrif²⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 9-4| J: T Eaves| T: D Carroll| OR: 78| BF| D

12/1

More commonly seen over 5f but has won over 7f in the past; handicapper has looked in charge in recent starts but he is now just 3lb above last winning mark.

Form: 553555

(11)

Cainhoe Star⁴⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-4| J: L Morris| T: A Carson| OR: 78| D

10/1

Not at his best over 1m at Chelmsford last time but generally better over this trip. Beat Monteverdi before that by 3L but that reopposing rival gets a 6lb pull in the weights now.

Form: 162318

(1)

Michele Strogoff^p¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-4| J: B A Curtis| T: T Coyle & K Wood| OR: 78| D

8/1

Has run well in similar races to this on turf before, but is yet to place in an AW race in Britain (did win on a synthetic surface in France when trained there).

Form: 977434

(9)

Alpha Tauri²⁵

Age: 11| Weight: 9-3| J: Ben Robinson⁽⁵⁾| T: C Smith| OR: 77| CD

20/1

Veteran dual-C&D winner who won over further here in May but looks vulnerable to the younger, improving types on this particular occasion.

Form: 319800

(10)

Midnight Macchiato³²

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: P Makin| T: D H Brown| OR: 77| D

14/1

Only win came over this trip but is actually arguably better over further. Needs to leave a poor showing at Chelmsford last time out a long way behind

Form: 0-73620

(6)

Hammer Gun^v¹⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: P Mathers| T: D Shaw| OR: 76| CD

16/1

Multiple course winner, including over C&D, but doesn't look an appealing prospect after some recent moderate showings at Chelmsford (where he is also a course winner).

Form: 740400

Forecasts

Abraj Dubai (9/4), Monteverdi (3/1), Toy Theatre (15/2), Michele Strogoff (8/1), Cainhoe Star (10/1), Musharrif (12/1), Custard The Dragon (14/1), Midnight Macchiato (14/1), Hammer Gun (16/1), Alpha Tauri (20/1), Bouclier (33/1)

A lot of this depends on how ABRAJ DUBAI fares on handicap debut. The daughter of Street Cry looked highly impressive on debut over C&D on her only start to date, and though the next three home are now rated 60, 44 and 66, she could only beat what was put in front of her and won as she liked. She could prove to be better than this opening mark of 80 in time and is taken to make it 2/2. Monteverdi looks a viable alternative if she fails to impress again, while Custard The Dragon is considering given he has won over this C&D five times despite being only four.