16:45 Ascot

Saturday 7 October 2017

All13:5014:2515:0015:3516:1016:45

McGee Lighthouse Club Handicap

Off time: 16:46 | Winning time: 1m 2.69s

(1)

Equimou¹⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: M Harley| T: R Eddery| OR: 95| D

10/1

Filly took advantage of a sliding mark when winning over 5f at Yarmouth (good to soft) last time out. Subsequent 3lb rise fair enough but she looks vulnerable in a race of deeper quality.

Form: 759881

(3)

Lincoln⁹⁷

Age: 6| Weight: 9-5| J: Rob Hornby| T: M R Channon| OR: 93| D

8/1

Competitive off higher marks than this in the past and has shown up well in his last two starts over 6f, though just the one run since May suggests issues. May just find things happening too quickly given that 5f is below his optimum.

Form: 699-037

(5)

Evergate²¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: G Mosse| T: R M H Cowell| OR: 92| D

13/2

Has been running well since joining this yard and wasn't beaten far in a valuable handicap at York (good) on his penultimate start. Below that form in the Portland at Doncaster since, though was drawn on the 'wrong' side. Could bounce back.

Form: 221530

(9)

Willytheconqueror^p1¹²

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: M Dwyer| T: W R Muir| OR: 91| D

10/1

Produced one of his best ever performances when fourth in a Listed even on this card 12 months ago but largely regressive since. Cheekpieces reached for after another average effort at Leicester last time and dropped 3lb too.

Form: 067504

(8)

Shamshon^t²⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 8-13| J: Oisin Murphy| T: S C Williams| OR: 87| CD

8/1

C&D winner off a 5lb higher mark on final start for Jamie Osborne but just one win from 11 starts for this yard and he's an inconsistent sort. Could only beat one home over C&D last time but a threat if in the mood.

Form: 316049

(12)

Escalating^t⁹⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 8-13| J: L Morris| T: M Appleby| OR: 87| CD

16/1

Gelded last winter and much-improved since, winning races at Southwell and Nottingham earlier in the year. Not seen out since a below par effort at Newcastle in June but feasibly-treated and yard capable of readying one after a break.

Form: 123317

(2)

Pettochside²⁸

Age: 8| Weight: 8-12| J: Mitch Godwin⁽⁵⁾| T: J J Bridger| OR: 86| CD

12/1

Experienced campaigner who has enjoyed a decent season and looked better than ever when winning over C&D (soft) last time out, staying on well to beat Robot Boy by 1L. More to do from 4lb higher now but likely to go well.

Form: 326091

(10)

Justice Lady³⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 8-11| J: Jim Crowley| T: D R C Elsworth| OR: 85| D

4/1

Can be headstrong at times but plenty of ability when a race is run to suit, as she proved when produced late off a strong pace to score cosily at Sandown (5f, good) latest. Repeat not guaranteed but rising mark probably not beyond her.

Form: 531441

(4)

Erissimus Maximus^b²⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 8-11| J: Lewis Edmunds⁽³⁾| T: C A Dwyer| OR: 85| D

11/1

A real revelation this summer, sandwiching a narrow defeat at Newbury in between a win at Yarmouth and a dead-heat on soft ground at Thirsk last time. Hard to discount in current mood but may be reaching his ceiling now after a 2lb rise.

Form: 472121

(6)

Union Rose¹²

Age: 5| Weight: 8-11| J: Fran Berry| T: R Harris| OR: 85| D

20/1

A winner over this trip at Bath (good to firm) in July from a 2lb lower mark but that remains his only success in the last two years. Didn't show enough at Leicester last time to suggest another win is imminent.

Form: 714745

(7)

Vimy Ridge^t²³

Age: 5| Weight: 8-10| J: S Donohoe| T: A Bailey| OR: 84| D

25/1

A runner-up from a higher mark in this race two years ago and, though largely regressive since, has bounced back with a vengeance this year, winning three times. Below par over 6f at Doncaster latest but respected back over 5f today.

Form: 214110

(13)

Signore Piccolo^h²³

Age: 6| Weight: 8-8| J: J P Fahy| T: D Loughnane| OR: 82| D

25/1

Disappointing in two starts since finishing a close fourth of 12 over 6f at Haydock (soft) last month. Still rated 4lb higher than when winning at Haydock earlier in the campaign and others look better treated.

Form: 626486

(11)

Delagate This Lord²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 8-7| J: Ted Durcan| T: M J Attwater| OR: 80| D

7/1

Has improved out of sight since joining this yard in mid-season, making it 3 from 3 with a smooth success at Bath (5f, good to soft) last month. Combination of a rising mark and a step up in class may just prove too much.

Form: 733111

Forecasts

Justice Lady (4/1), Evergate (13/2), Delagate This Lord (7/1), Lincoln (8/1), Shamshon (8/1), Equimou (10/1), Willytheconqueror (10/1), Erissimus Maximus (11/1), Pettochside (12/1), Escalating (16/1), Union Rose (20/1), Vimy Ridge (25/1), Signore Piccolo (25/1)

A seemingly wide-open finale in which Justice Lady could take some stopping in the hands of Jim Crowley if able to be played late off a strong pace. At the likely odds, however, preference is for the lightly-raced EVERGATE who can be excused a sub-standard effort when poorly drawn in the Portland at Doncaster last time. Previously, he had finished an excellent third in a hot handicap at York and a reproduction of that form could well suffice in this company. Escalating and Vimy Ridge are also interesting at bigger prices.