Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

‘Newcastle Turf History is replete with interesting points, rewards for the man of research’. So wrote John Rickman in his book ‘Homes Of Sport: Horse Racing’ in the section devoted to Newcastle racecourse, or High Gosforth Park as it is more locally known.

Racing at Newcastle is associated mostly with the Northumberland Plate (or Pitmen’s Derby) on the Flat and the Eider Chase over jumps but as Rickman points out, the Newcastle Cup over two miles was the principal event at the track before the Northumberland Plate became popular. The fourth winner of the Northumberland Plate was the three-year-old Cyprian who also won the Oaks having walked from Malton where she was trained to Epsom and then back up to Newcastle; it was won three years in succession in the mid-1800s by Underhand, a record that still stands; and by such famous names as Lily Agnes and Barcaldine at the end of the 19th century before more recently while the race was still run on turf by Sergeant Cecil who also won the Ebor and the Cesarewitch in the same year before going on to win the Doncaster Cup and the Prix du Cadran the following season.

And I doubt anything will surpass the Trueshan’s victory under 10-08 in 2022 which remains the best weight-carrying feat in the race in modern history. Giving weight away in handicaps is easier when the gallop is not end to end and Trueshan’s timefigure came in at a modest 109 compared to his 128 performance rating, and a similar scenario presented itself to the latest winner Align The Stars who had missed Ascot in perhaps a hint of changing race-planning mindset at Kingsley House and was able to defy 9st 6lb by a length-and-a-quarter in a lowly 80 timefigure after being up with the pace throughout.

For the first time since 2019, the Plate’s little brother, The Northumberland Vase, for horses not quite good enough to get into the feature event, was run in a faster time, 0.85 seconds to be precise, but even that contest wasn’t run at a flat out gallop and its winner Believeitanducan, like Trueshan trained by Alan King, was also well placed on his way to a 86 timefigure, leading under pressure two furlongs out and keeping on in typically determined fashion to win by a length.

The best figure achieved at Newcastle over the two-day meeting (and indeed the best of the week anywhere) came from Room Service in the opening handicap on Plate Day.

He rather went missing last year which was presumably why he left Kevin Ryan but it shouldn’t be forgotten he put up the best performance as a three-year-old in a handicap in Britain in 2024 when second off a BHA mark of 105 in a heritage handicap at York and not only was this run equally as good but it came with a fast timefigure (114) too as well as a weighted 4lb upgrade across all of the last three furlongs.

That York run came on ground Timeform called soft; this was his first run on the all-weather, as well as his first in blinkers (and a tongue strap) instead of cheekpieces, and while his new rating of 109 rules him out of pretty much every handicap going now he did finish second in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at York last June.

As if to prove that a top-form Room Service is up to winning at Group level, back in third place in that Criterion Stakes was Paborus who was also ran at Newcastle on Saturday and won the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes by a length from Marvelman in a 110 timefigure that came with no upgrade. Paborus hadn’t run at six furlongs before, or indeed since the Criterion, and given the miserable state of the domestic six-furlong pecking order a repeat of this run might well be good enough to score at a higher level, though the manner of his win – ridden soon after halfway – suggests that he’ll likely be stepped back up in trip.

Across at the Curragh on Saturday, the middle day of their three-day Irish Derby meeting, there was also a 110 timefigure posted, this time by Estrange in the Group 1 Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes. Settled in rear with just two behind her, she could be seen travelling best along with Oaks winner Thundering On turning into the straight, which she took widest, and always had matters in hand after hitting the front, for all runner-up One Look found some trouble staying on from the back.

110 is just 1lb below the 111 she recorded when second to the subsequent Arc second Minnie Hauk in the 2025 Yorkshire Oaks on ground that Timeform called good to firm, and while performance ratings suggest she may have improved a little from four to five – she’s still lightly raced, after all, having had just nine races – she seems a lot closer to me to Minnie Hauk (best timefigure 120) in the Arc betting than she deserves to be having also been beaten two-and-a-half lengths by Kalpana (currently 33s for the Arc) in the Champions Fillies Mares at Ascot last autumn.

I'm not sure quite what to make of Oaks winner Thundering On. The form of her Epsom victory which she took in a 109 timefigure has hardly been upheld but in fairness she ought to be given the chance to set the record straight back under more favourable conditions, an invitation that Timeform extended to the following day’s Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini after his flop at Epsom. It may also be too that the Betfred Derby form, a race where I felt most didn’t stay, might end up being reassessed downwards before the end of the season

On the same card the two two-year-old Group races, the Anglesey Stakes and the Airlie Stud Stakes, were won by Ballinea Star and Sun Goddess respectively in timefigures of 79 and 99.

Aidan O’Brien was expected to win the former with Coventry Stakes sixth Confucius but he could finish only third of five behind a winner (and a filly too) whose form has suddenly taken off and a colt who finished third behind subsequent Coventry winner Great Barrier Reef in the Marble Hill last time out. Confucius had his chance, going on approaching halfway, but couldn’t keep a straight line, allowing the early leader and eventual winner to get back up, albeit in a slow time.

O’Brien’s representative in the Airlie Stud, Sun Goddess had also been to Ascot, finishing second in the Albany, but she made light of the quick turnaround by scoring from Green Empress and Beihhinn in an almost identical timefigure to Ascot, 99, which is boosted by 6lb upgrade to 105 overall. She scored nicely, still looking a filly who’ll be better at seven furlongs and a mile to me, but Green Empress emerged with a bigger sectional upgrade, 8lb, so making her overall timerating 105 too, and got much closer to the winner than she had on her debut here last month. Seven furlongs will also suit her and a Group win for her only looks a matter of time.

What did Benvenuto Cellini achieve in the Irish Derby?

Onto Sunday and Benvenuto Cellini made up for his controversial ‘non-runner’ effort in the Derby with his best performance yet in the Irish equivalent, leading home yet another 1-2-3 in a European Derby for Aidan O’Brien with Epsom winner Christmas Day in second and seventh Pierre Bonnard in third. A 121 timefigure for Benvenuto Cellini, 119 for Christmas Day and 118 for Pierre Bonnard are all career bests with the runner-up performing 1lb better than he had at Epsom, so giving the form a watertight look, but the strongly-run nature of the race took its toll on fourth-placed Raaheeb who while repeating the 108 figure he posted in the Classic Trial at Sandown looked something of a short runner at the trip to me after looking to be coming with a threatening challenge.

Benvenuto Cellini will surely be at least as effective at the St Leger trip should connections opt to go that way, but whether the ground will be quick enough for him at that time of year remains to be seen; very slow conditions look something of a necessity for Derby third James J Braddock on this evidence, however, detached entering the straight and merely labouring into a remote sixth.

The Derby supporting card was hardly the most inspiring - like most modern-day Festivals under either code, the meeting would be better curtailed by a day – with the only other Group race on the card being the Group 3 International Stakes. It was run at an ordinary pace producing a decent sectional upgrade (13lb) for the winner Purview on top of his 95 timefigure but though both runner-up Trustyourinstinct and third-placed Hotazhell came out of the race with bigger upgrades he never looked like being beaten and deserves a crack at a higher level now, his turn of foot and ability to handle fast ground making him an ideal candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Turf in the autumn.

The two listed races both produced poor timefigures unlike the concluding Premier Handicap which went to In My Teens in a smart 103 timefigure boosted to 112 by a 9lb upgrade, by some considerable margin the highest in the race, an effort which suggests she’s well up to winning in Group company.

That’s a path that will surely be taken too by opening-race winner Alpha, a horse who just falls 3lb shy of being a very rare member of the ‘400 club’ (a select cohort of horses whose Timeform ratings in their pedigree top line (sire, dam, maternal grandsire) total 400 or more). She earned a Timeform large P on her debut, scored by six lengths here in a 98 timefigure boosted to 104 by a 6lb sectional upgrade, was never stronger than at the finish and might even do what her mother, the crack miler Alpha Centauri, couldn’t do and score in Group 1 company as a juvenile.

Neither of Aidan O’Brien’s other winning juveniles that stormed to the head of the betting for the 2027 Classics, Abraham Lincoln and Giant Sequoia achieved anything as near as much on the clock as Alpha, but both looked good prospects.

More Watch And Learn columns

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• River impresses on the clock at Chester
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• Lots to like about Raaheeb
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