Value Bet tips: Saturday July 10
1pt win Liberated Lady in 2.05 Newmarket at 20/1 (bet365)
1pt win Showalong in 3.35 Ascot at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Shine So Bright 3.50 Newmarket at 18/1 (BetVictor)
1pt win Lucander in 4.05 York at 16/1 (BetVictor, bet365)
1pt win Miss Amulet in 4.25 Newmarket at 40/1 (General)
Amulet a charming filly not to be ignored
In a fantastic and hotly-contested Darley July Cup containing several thriving sprinters, the value may now lie with a three-year-old who has something to prove on this year’s evidence.
Clive Cox’s Supremacy would certainly fall into that category, the 2020 Middle Park winner failing to make any sort of impact on his Ascot comeback but potentially worth excusing on account of being under the weather for a few days afterwards.
He's reported to be fit and firing again but he’s hardly been missed in the market at 16/1 and at a huge price it’s MISS AMULET who looks worth a dart as she looks to consign her lifeless Irish 1,000 Guineas run to the past.
The Ken Condon-trained filly showed her best as a juvenile on good or yielding ground so the seriously heavy conditions at the Curragh were very much against her on the day, but she had shaped like a non-stayer (finished third, to her credit) on her first try over a mile at the Breeders’ Cup anyway.
Considering that was on a relatively sharp track at Keeneland, the chances of her getting a mile on bad ground on a stiff course like the Curragh were pretty slim if truth be told and a return to form now back sprinting again shouldn’t come as much of a shock.
An extremely cheap purchase in the grand scheme of things (£7,500 yearling), Miss Amulet evidently took connections by surprise last term but her best efforts, namely a one-length York victory over subsequent Nell Gwyn winner Sacred and fine, half-length defeat to Alcohol Free at Newmarket in September, reads really quite well.
Those high-class efforts in the Group Two Lowther Stakes and Group One Cheveley Park are her two career starts to this point over Saturday’s six-furlong trip and when you take a step back and see she’s still rated 109, she is right in the mix with the very best of these rivals, getting the age and sex allowances (9lb in total) from the 119-rated reigning title-holder Oxted, for instance.
The remarkable Oxted has a lot going for him again after arcing back to his best for the King’s Stand at the Royal meeting last month but this does look a much deeper bunch of three-year-olds than those he took care of on the July Course last summer and antepost recommendation Dragon Symbol is possibly the horse they all have to beat.
But Miss Amulet has been forgotten about and after just the one run in such unfavourable circumstances, it looks far too soon to simply assume that she just hasn’t trained on.
Red-hot Balding to bag Bunbury bonanza
SHINE SO BRIGHT has been the long-term fancy for the bet365 Bunbury Cup for a couple of weeks and I’ve no issues about doubling down on him following the final declarations.
The fairly low draw (stall six) may put a few people off, given how the jockeys have been negotiating the straight track through Thursday and Friday, but the obvious counter is that for such a valuable seven-furlong handicap there doesn’t seem to be much pace at all in the field.
Shine So Bright is effectively the only confirmed front-runner among this lot and there aren’t many jockeys I’d want over Silvestre De Sousa in that kind of scenario, particularly on this course which has always played to the strengths of those able to get rolling from the front.
Shine So Bright is technically 1lb ‘wrong’ on these terms, having been dropped to 100 since his fourth to Line Of Departure (who has been supplemented for the July Cup) over six furlongs at Salisbury since the weights were originally published.
However, he’s a better horse over seven these days and while he’s not won since beating Laurens at York two years ago, his head second to the reopposing Count Otto at Lingfield in March shows he’s still more than capable when on song.
Andrew Balding’s horse is 7lb better off with Count Otto, who went on to beat subsequent Chipchase winner Chil Chil (also runs in the July Cup) at Newmarket, so even on this year’s evidence he’s well enough handicapped to be seriously competitive at this sort of level.
If he’s able to recapture any of his 2019 form when rated 115 then he’s clearly thrown in at the moment and he won’t mind a drop of rain either, which looks like hitting the course sporadically throughout raceday.
Luck be a Lady for Hugo Palmer
The ground seems unlikely to get quite as cut up as it had become by the time LIBERATED LADY made her handicap debut at Doncaster late last month and I felt she wasn’t at all disgraced on Town Moor.
Saturday’s Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap is a slight step up in class for Hugo Palmer’s filly but she’s always been quite well thought of (ran in the Fred Darling on her seasonal bow before having another short break) and has been eased 3lb to a mark of 87.
She’s in against some obviously progressive sorts in Riknnah and Kingmania, who have won their last three, but is available at tempting prices as a consequence and it could pay to give her another roll of the dice back over seven furlongs.
Show me the money at Ascot
Shine So Bright’s King Power Racing silks could be carried to victory at Ascot as Diamond Jubilee fourth Happy Power steps back up in trip fir the Betfred Summer Mile Stakes.
His price is no more than fair, however, and I’d rather have a cut at the hugely competitive Betfred Heritage Handicap over the bare five furlongs.
Tim Easterby does exceptionally well with his young sprinters and SHOWALONG is being overlooked in the betting on the back of her super run in fifth at York last time. After travelling powerfully not too far off the leaders early on, she almost poked her nose in front with a furlong to travel but got slightly outpaced before sticking on nicely at the death.
Her two wins last year came on soft ground and it was good to soft when she struck at Chester’s May meeting this spring so perhaps the really lively conditions at York caught her out slightly on the day.
It was still a very creditable effort on her first go in such a hot handicap and we know the form is strong enough as runner-up Blackrod went one better in the big three-year-old at Newmarket on Thursday.
Showalong runs off the same mark here, getting 5lb weight-for-age from the older, more exposed sprinters, and should really appreciate the return to a stiff five furlongs, especially if a bit more rain arrives in Berkshire.
Safe to can Lucander's last run ahead of John Smith's
The ground at York is already on the easy side, with the odd heavy shower forecast on the Knavesmire, and LUCANDER should be in his absolute element in the John Smith's Cup.
This horse can throw in the odd stinking run and he lines up here on the back of precisely that when trailing home one from the rear in the Royal Hunt Cup, but the drop to a mile on rattling-quick ground last month was dead against him.
His course and distance Ebor Festival win here last August came following a pretty flat effort at Newmarket’s July Festival, so the Hunt Cup run is excused and connections will no doubt have been targeting this event for a long time now (also won at the track as a juvenile).
From a handicapping perspective, he’s not badly treated at all off a mark of 99, just 5lb higher than for his last York success, and 1lb higher than for his subsequent second in the Cambridgeshire.
A word too on Lucander's jockey this weekend, Laura Pearson, who is on the brink of losing her 5lb claim – she's just three winners shy at the time of writing. Pearson is making her belated debut here at York but she's proved to be extremely adaptable in terms of tactics elsewhere and there are no fears at all on that score.
It looks highly significant trainer Ralph Beckett has secured her services for this valuable prize and at the time of writing her strike-rate for the yards reads an impressive 3-10.
Published at 1600 BST on 09/07/21
