Goodwood tips: Best value bets for Wednesday July 28
Matt Brocklebank's had a 20/1 winner already at Goodwood today and has one more selection still to run later on the card.
Value Bet tips: Wednesday July 28
1pt win Vina Bay in 1.50 Goodwood at 40/1 (General)
1pt win Last Empire in 2.25 Goodwood at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Canagat in 5.20 Goodwood at 20/1 (General)
Taking on Poetic Flare in Wednesday's Qatar Sussex Stakes looks fraught with danger and even the classy, Group One-winning fillies in receipt of weight - Alcohol Free and Snow Lantern - still have a fair way to go to match up to his stunning St James's Palace performance.
Perhaps it could be argued, having clearly thrived on his hectic schedule earlier in the year, that catching him cold after a 43-day break might be the only chance of lowering his colours, but otherwise it looks a 'sit back and soak up' sort of race.
Obvious betting opportunities aren't peppered all over the rest of the card either but I do fancy the claims of Kevin Ryan's LAST EMPIRE in an open-looking Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes.
She's been known to throw in the odd howler along the way but there was a suggestion from someone in the camp that she may have been coming into season when clearly below par at Haydock in May, and she's been off the track since which supports the idea to some extent.
Prior to the Cecil Frail she'd let down favourite-backers in a Listed race for fillies and mares at Nottingham but it turns out she faced a near-impossible task conceding 13lb to three-year-old Light Refrain, who is now rated 107 after a close fourth in the Sandy Lane and a runaway win in a Group Three at York last time out.
Last Empire performed perfectly creditably in hindsight, being beaten just a length and a quarter, and with a repeat of that effort she might well go close to winning this.
Stall two is just about where you'd place her if you had the choice as she likes to race handily just behind the leaders so there's a chance of a perfect trip around here and connections won't be mindful of the weather as she goes on just about anything from good to heavy.
VINA BAY looks the bet in the Unibet ’15 To Go’ Handicap as he’d be at least half the price if he was coming here straight from completing his hat-trick of wins at Lingfield in mid-March.
Instead, he’s got it all to prove again after what can only be deemed a performance that was too bad to be true on good to soft ground when making his turf debut at Newbury in May.
He moved perfectly well for the first two-thirds of the race but seemed to completely forget what was required of him when turning into the wide, expansive home straight and was ultimately beaten over 70 lengths.
He’d had a 61-day break prior to that and now returns after another 75 days off so it’s presumed something may have been troubling him physically, in which case I’d much rather focus on his really progressive run of form earlier in the campaign.
After three novice outings around the turn of the year he clearly started off in handicaps with a very manageable mark (63) and duly mopped up a couple of low-grade races over a mile at Lingfield and Kempton.
However, it’s the half-length defeat of Currency Exchange off 77, with Albert Camus and Fairmac (have won three races between them subsequently) back in third and fourth, over 10 furlongs at Lingfield that marks him down as still potentially ahead of the assessor.
He’s bred to get this far and had been shaping like a middle-distance horse during his time on the all-weather so at a huge price I’m willing to give him another chance to show what he’s truly capable of.
I’m not quite sure what to expect tactically from CANAGAT from stall one under Jamie Spencer in the concluding World Pool Handicap but I was willing to chance the horse at Epsom on Derby day, where he was a late non-runner, and will roll the dice again on his belated stable debut.
He was a good two and three-year-old for Archie Watson and it just hasn’t really worked out for him in France, where he moved yards earlier this year, running a fair third in a Listed race before coming over for the All Weather Mile Championships event at Lingfield on Good Friday.
He was the lowest-rated in that and stood no real chance against the likes of Khuzaam, Mums Tipple and Bless Him, but he won the last handicap he ran in in the UK and is only 6lb higher in the weights now.
He was always a keen-going sort and occasionally did too much too soon, especially when racing over a mile but seven furlongs on a quick track like this promises to play to his strengths if Spencer is willing to ride a little closer to the pace than you might normally expect.
Published at 1600 BST on 27/07/21
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