Grand National tips: Preview and best value bets for Aintree on April 10
Grand National day tips: Saturday, April 10
1pt win Barnaviddaun in 1.45 Aintree at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Indefatigable in 3.35 Aintree at 25/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Farclas in 5.15 Aintree at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Class Conti in 5.15 Aintree at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
It would feel wrong to introduce a preview of the 2021 Randox Grand National without a nod to absent friends, and what could be more fitting than FARCLAS doing a convincing Tiger Roll impression by winning at Aintree for the same connections as the rerouted 2018 and 2019 hero.
Let’s get the obvious negative out of the way before the tapes go up - you’ve got to go back to 1940 for the last seven-year-old winner of the Grand National. There, we’ve cleared the air. And in this unusual year there is a real sense it might just take something extraordinary to overcome the 14lb ‘well-in’ favourite Cloth Cap, who ticks just about every box other than the one regarding experience over this unique course.
When it comes to Farclas, he’s technically only 8lb wrong with the favourite on current ratings as BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood is on record stating he’d have put the grey up another 6lb for his staying-on second behind The Shunter in the Paddy Power Plate at Cheltenham, before which the Aintree weights had already been finalised.
And who knows what that true assessment will be after the music stops on Merseyside this week, given The Shunter was a fine second (could have gone close with a better jump at the last) in a Grade One novice event here on Thursday, and Plate eighth Sully D’Oc AA ran a belter in second in the Red Rum.
That all helps cement the initial impression that that particular piece of Cheltenham form could hardly be stronger for the grade, and Farclas – who was checked and stumbled when first trying to mount a challenge on the turn in – was trying to concede The Shunter the best part of a stone (13lb) when you factor in the winning rider Jordan Gainford’s claim.
He’s bidding to emulate stablemate Tiger Roll in more ways than one, of course, having also started out on the Flat before winning the JCB Triumph Hurdle as a four-year-old. It is, admittedly, a highly unconventional path to take, and yet trainer Gordon Elliott (his horses currently running under the Denise Foster banner as he serves a six-month ban) has broken the mould when it comes to this race over the years.
He’s won the National three times in just 16 years with a licence. He even won it before ever saddling a winner back home in Ireland – with a Paul Nicholls cast-off no less – while Silver Birch (2007) also set the now familiar trend when it comes to prepping in cross-country races on the way to Liverpool, the route also taken by Elliott’s 13-year-old Bless The Wings before finishing an admirable third in 2018.
In short, Farclas being seven, in addition to taking a step up in distance to the tune of almost two miles, shouldn’t worry punters much, and it might pay to focus more on the fact connections have opted for Saturday over Friday’s Topham, as well as that seriously strong recent form that suggests the young horse is very well handicapped off a UK rating of 146 (was 152 over hurdles for almost an entire season).
As for stamina, it is more of a guessing game – like it is for the vast majority of the 40 runners in the field – but everything about Farclas’ form this season, including an excellent third behind Castlebawn West and the reopposing Minella Times in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, gives the impression he will be a true stayer in time.
Minella Times again finished in front of him at the Dublin Racing Festival, this time three lengths compared to the five and a half over Christmas, and he gets a 3lb pull on Saturday with the pair both running off 10-3 (the turnaround from the Paddy Power is 6lb in Farclas’ favour).
So there shouldn’t be a huge amount between them if you’re willing to chance Farclas’ staying power for four and a quarter miles, and yet he’s twice the price of the seemingly hugely popular Minella Times under Rachael Blackmore.
Who is the best Grand National outsider?
The other horse I want on side at a much bigger price is the Willie Mullins-trained CLASS CONTI, who has Aintree running through his veins being a half-brother to dual Betway Bowl winner Silviniaco Conti, as well as 2016 National sixth Ucello Conti.
He was bought by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede to be trained for this race after running a great trial in last year’s Thyestes at Gowran Park and, after a quiet start to the current campaign, he’s coming to the boil again following another placing (third) in the Thyestes and a fourth in the Leinster National at Naas last month.
The Thyestes form has worked out brilliantly already, winner Coko Beach going on to follow up in the Grade Two Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan before a solid seventh in the Irish National, in which Thyestes second Run Wild Fred filled the runner-up spot again.
The fifth, Mullins stable companion Acapella Bourgeois, has since won convincingly in the Bobbyjo Chase from Burrows Saint (The Long Mile, Tout Est Permis and Anibale Fly also well beaten off), and Class Conti is only 3lb worse off with Acapella Bourgeois this weekend, having beaten him 16 and a half lengths.
There’s a bit of a question mark against Class Conti when it comes to genuine spring ground but he won a small race on good going during his time in France, the aforementioned close relatives handled all types of ground and it’s interesting to read his trainer expects improvement – if anything – for the better conditions.
The combination of cheekpieces and a tongue-tie is maintained having worked so well on the two most recent outings, with Brian Hayes coming in for the ride, and in value terms he stands out a mile.
What are the best bets at Aintree?
The Saturday card opens up with a deeply competitive Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle and BARNAVIDDAUN is the one to be on.
He missed the cut for the Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham but new trainer David Bridgewater has been patient with his latest Irish recruit (worked wonders with The Conditional), and this looks a perfect target for the eight-year-old before he goes novice chasing next season. Any fears over the lack of a recent run to get him fit are offset by Bridgewater's superb 23% strike-rate (12-52) with stable debutants in handicap races.
Barnaviddaun was a bit of a shell last term but signed off with a maiden hurdle win at Downpatrick and was really going through the ranks for Tom Mullins before the turn of the year earlier this season.
Our final qualifier in the #REDMILLS @IrishEBF_ Auction Series was won by the @notnow123456 trained Barnaviddaun at @DownpatrickRace.
— Connolly's RED MILLS (@REDMILLSHorse) April 28, 2020
Already a runner up in series races at @LeopardstownRC & @Fairyhouse it was deserved victory for the son of Scorpion.#FeedYourDesireToWin pic.twitter.com/eAvFnXpne8
After a staying-on second in the valuable Irish EBF Auction Hurdle Series Final at Punchestown – in which he was conceding weight to the first, third and fourth – he went and won a handicap hurdle at Naas with a little bit up his sleeve from Damalisque.
There were six and a half lengths back to the rest and Damalisque, rated just 118 at the time, is now up to 136 in Ireland having won by seven and a half lengths at Navan, before finishing third in a major 0-150 handicap at Leopardstown in early-February.
So while Barnaviddaun now has to compete off 135 on his UK debut, he could still have a fair amount in hand here and it’s highly unlikely we’ve seen the best of him after just seven starts over hurdles, with the move up to three miles bound to suit on all evidence to this point.
Elsewhere, My Drogo looks the best novice hurdler in Britain and can rubber-stamp that view in the Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, while Sporting Life Arkle winner Shishkin should enjoy himself against inferior rivals in the Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase.
Given the strength of the Festival Plate form, third home Top Notch looks quite generously treated running off the same mark in the Betway Handicap Chase, although quite whether he wants three miles and a furlong, even on good ground around a flat track, is a slight niggle.
I can let him go at single-figure prices and would rather back INDEFATIGABLE to cause a shock in the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle.
She’s the lowest rated in the field but is only 5lb shy of fellow mare Roksana – the pair receiving 7lb from the boys – and Dan Skelton’s runner is third-favourite behind Thyme Hill and Paisley Park.
Indefatigable won last year’s Martin Pipe on what was officially described as soft ground but it was drying out pretty rapidly by the Friday of the Festival and her trainer Paul Webber insists she much prefers a sound surface.
Her back-to-form fourth in the Grade One Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham (soft again), where she finished under two lengths behind Roksana, bodes really well for Aintree then, as does the return to this trip having seemed to stay perfectly well on her only previous attempt at Kempton during November.
She comes here on her second run following a breathing operation, with a good record on sharp tracks as well as around Cheltenham (wins at Southwell and Warwick), and conditions looking absolutely ideal. There’s a lot to like including her long odds.
Published at 1600 BST on 09/04/21
More on the 2021 Grand National
- Full 2021 Grand National guide
- Full racecard & free video form
- Graham Cunningham on the key questions
- Ben Linfoot's Pinsticker's Guide
- Grand National trends preview
- Alex Hammond: National shortlist
- Sporting Life & Timeform shortlist
- Cornelius Lysaght: Great Nationals
- Podcast special: Richard Pitman
- Antepost Angle: Grand National
- Grand National: Tips Centre
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