The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets for the ITV racing at Doncaster and the Curragh on Sunday.
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Doncaster
2.05 1 pt e/w – 3 Brave Nation
There have been a few much bigger fields in the Doncaster sprints this week but the presence of the likes of Tees Spirit, Venture Capital and Ready Freddie Go suggests a strong pace is assured and the most overpriced of those likely to be delivered late – often the best tactic on this expansive course – looks to be Brave Nation, who has got his act together to some tune lately and boasts striking form figures over C&D of 1211. Indeed, Brave Nation has yet to win anywhere else yet his latest third in a Racing League handicap at Southwell on his all-weather debut strongly suggested he’s still getting better and he can reverse form with runner-up Muker given the first two that day raced on a different part of the track. Ideally berthed right next to Tees Spirit, Brave Nation makes plenty of each-way appeal even with terms at just a fifth the odds.
2.40 1 pt – 2 Ten Pounds
This looks a warm three-year-old handicap, several of these with more to offer than they’ve shown so far, but it’s very hard to ignore the claims of Ten Pounds at the top of the betting. He may already have won three times, readily so on each occasion, but such is his physique and the way he sauntered to the front in a Racing League event at Newcastle on his handicap debut that he looks a three-year-old of considerable potential still. A galloping seven furlongs looks ideal for now and he can stamp himself a pattern horse in the making by winning this competitive affair.
3.15 1 pt – 7 Great Generation
Not an easy race to try to solve with a mix of fillies with established form and improving three-year-olds. Fair Angellica looks the right favourite on the back of her listed win at Deauville last time, but whether she should be as far ahead of Great Generation as the market on Saturday afternoon has it is up for debate. Admittedly, Great Generation arrives on the back of a lamentable effort in the Maurice de Gheest and has a 3 lb penalty to carry for her win at this level at Lingfield in the spring, but that form, as well as that of her close fourth in the Summer Stakes at York next time, gives her a big chance, while she’s unexposed at seven furlongs.
3.45 0.5 pt e/w – 1 Terries Royale & 13 Secret Beach
The usual big field for this novelty event and, considering the wide-open betting market, it’s worth splitting stakes on a couple. First on the team sheet is Terries Royale, who’s still lightly raced and was better than ever when winning in a large field at Ascot last time. A forward-goer, he should be a straightforward ride for Megan Nicholls and if he can find a bit more progress then he’s unlikely to be far away. It’s also worth keeping the Timeform top-rated Secret Beach on side, for last year’s winning combination of Ben Brookhouse and Tom Scudamore. The doubt with him is the trip, as his best run came over half a mile further at Epsom, but that form, when second to the progressive Allonsy, is strong in the context of this, and the likelihood of a brisk gallop should bring his stamina into play anyway
4.15 1 pt – 2 Tacarib Bay
It’s fair to say most of these are out of the winning habit but Tacarib Bay couldn’t have gone much closer to breaking his 2024 duck on his last two starts and the extended six furlongs at this track is no bad thing at all for a horse campaigned plenty at a mile early in his career. Tacarib Bay’s first near-miss was at the hands of a three-year-old in a blanket finish at Goodwood, then he battled gamely up against smart course specialist Fresh at Ascot last weekend, when he might well have got back up in another 50 yards or so. Still well-in from only 1 lb higher, having started the season with a BHA mark of 106, Tacarib Bay should be nearer favourite than he is, not least as he’s landed the plumb draw alongside likely pace-setter Flaming Rib.
Curragh
1.50 0.5 pt ew - 22 Keke
This is an extraordinarily difficult handicap by any standards but there’s a reasonably straightforward case to make for Keke, who lines up seeking a four-timer and looks about the most progressive horse in the line-up. He’s got the enviable trait of not winning by far – the aggregate margin of victory for his recent hat-trick is just three quarters of a length – and that means the handicapper is finding it hard to catch up. It’s true that this is by far the most competitive race he’ll have contested, but the way he travels through his races suggests he’s well equipped to cope with this more demanding test and could even improve some more for it.
2.25 1 pt – 9 Purple Lily & 7 Elizabeth Jane
American Sonja was just touched off in a Group 1 last time and is obviously a contender for this Group 2, but the piece of form to focus on is surely the Irish Oaks which was given a boost by the first pair home filling the same positions – in reverse order – in the Yorkshire Oaks. Purple Lily, who was third in the Irish Oaks, had previously been a close second to the Oaks winner Ezeliya at Navan before dropping back to 1m for the Irish Guineas where she ran very creditably, and this trip could prove her ideal. She was a bit better than the result in the Irish Oaks, too, having had to wait for room and then been bumped a couple of times by the winner in the straight.
Elizabeth Jane had a clear run in the Irish Oaks en route to finishing a place behind Purple Lily, but she had to come from a long way back, that was just the third run of her life, and it’s reasonable to think she can do better again for a stable that’s been responsible for five of the last ten winners of this.
3.00 No Bet Advised
Bedtime Story stands out on the rating she achieved when so dominant in the Chesham at Royal Ascot, not having to get near that figure when winning at extremely prohibitive odds twice since, and odds touching even money in places are certainly tempting, but at the same time she faces stiffer opposition than when scoring by just half a length in the Debutante, her stablemate Lake Victoria looking highly promising herself, so the best course of action is probably to sit this one out.
3.35 2 pts – 13 Believing
It took probably less than a furlong of the Nunthorpe to conclude Bradsell was going to take all the beating, such was the low-draw bias on the sprint course throughout Ebor week as well as the fact he was the one perfectly poised behind the trailblazing Ponntos. In the end, the winning margin was down to under a length and it was the reopposing Believing – the only one drawn in a double-figure stall to finish in the first handful – who was doing that closing courtesy of a eye-catchingly strong finish, one that had Timeform’s reporter to point towards this race as her likely next target, stating she was ‘sure to give another good account’.
The first observation was correct and there’s a strong chance the second one will be as well, as she surely should be favourite to reverse York placings faced with a stiffer test at the trip and with Bradsell unlikely to get the same advantages as he had that day, not to mention the fact the Nunthorpe winner has underperformed on both previous visits to the Curragh whereas Believing ran out a decisive winner of the Sapphire Stakes here in July on her sole previous visit. There are sixteen other rivals to contend with as well, but half are home-trained and the gap between the top British sprinters and their Irish counterparts has been there for all to see. Stall one may not be ideal as a rule but there’s no shortage of pace among the low numbers, including Desperate Hero next door and Matilda Picotte in five.
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