Timeform's lead Flat analyst David Johnson with his takeaways from Saturday's action at Doncaster and Leopardstown.
‘It’s why we still run the races’ – I can’t remember where it was that I heard that, probably during my formative years in the bookies from some old sage who could remember Arkle, and there is no better reminder of that adage than the results of the two feature Group 1s at Doncaster and Leopardstown on an afternoon that gives Super Saturday a run for its money as the most congested day in the sport.
The Irish Champion Stakes is a classic example of what ‘should’ have happened failing to tally with what did, as 50/1 complete outsider Hotazhell held off 33/1-chance Wimbledon Hawkeye by a nose, despite hanging and causing interference to some of the beaten horses on his inside. The first two were rated 117 and 116 on Timeform ratings beforehand, some way behind top-rated Item on 128p. Historical standards, as well as those that take into account the past form of the field point to the first two running to ratings in the mid-120s, but it would be no surprise if this form ended being rated a little lower than that.
All of the big three in the market failed to run quite to their best, Constitution River closest to his but still probably in the region of 6-8 lb below his peak and he hasn’t really progressed to any great extent since his reappearance in the Dee Stakes. Almarqam was close enough if good enough turning in but couldn’t see his race out like he had at York, perhaps feeling a hard race there, and Item seemed unsuited by the track having come under pressure a long way out and looks ready for a step up to 1½m now – though it’s hard to believe North American turf tracks will play to his strengths and connections will surely be hoping for a dry autumn in Paris.
The 250th St Leger didn’t provide quite the shock Leopardstown did, as 11/1-shot Highwayman gave Joseph O’Brien a second win in the Classic following Galileo Chrome’s 2020 success as he held off his shorter-priced stablemate Enceladus, who looked to give his running in second as the pair pulled clear. Historic standards for this race pitch the winner in the mid-120s, prior rating standards in the high one-teens and the final figure is likely to be pitched somewhere between the two.
A second British classic of the season, to go with Thundering On’s Oaks is a reminder of the increasing strength of the Joseph O’Brien stable, who have succeeded at the big Festivals in the UK this season with remarkable regularity and the future continues to look very bright for him with a couple of very promising 2-y-os to unleash in the Moyglare and National Stakes at the Curragh on the second day of the Irish Champions Festival.
Although as early as Royal Ascot, the 2-y-o fillies looked an above-average crop, the colts have taken their time to emerge, but Desert Castle looks set to take high rank for Charlie Appleby after his impressive with in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. The race has produced subsequent Group 1 winners in each of the last four years and a rating of around 115 would suggest Desert Castle holds a good chance of upholding that record with the Dewhurst up next – but anyone getting heavily involved there would be wise to pay close attention to the National Stakes tomorrow.
The National Stakes is now the second Group 1 2-y-o contest on Irish Champions Weekend after the upgrading of Saturday’s Golden Fleece at Leopardstown, which is now run over 9f rather than 1m, presumably with a view to strengthening its position as a Derby trial and Darkness Falls was promoted to favourite for that contest following his impressive 4¼ length win – his rating of 112 is likely to end up a little below what Desert Castle achieved, but with that one promoted to favourite for the Guineas, it also points to them likely having different targets this autumn as well.
There’s a poem with the line that ‘Winter rides in on the tail of the last horse in the St Leger’ and while the Flat season is undoubtedly building to a crescendo, the fat lady isn’t done singing yet.
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