Cheltenham Talking Points: Ben Linfoot on what to look forward to at the November Meeting

Fisher bids to break Henderson Gold run

It’s the big ‘un this weekend, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, so naturally we should all be looking out for Nicky Henderson’s selected, right?

Well, you would think so, wouldn’t you, but this is one Cheltenham contest that the master of Seven Barrows has struggled with over the years.

Since his track’n’trip specialist Fondmort won the race in 2003, Hendo has had 25 consecutive losers in the contest including the not unfancied Copsale Lad, Barbers Shop, Long Run, Dave’s Dream, Rajdhani Express, Oscar Whisky and Rather Be, who were all sent off at single-figure prices.

This year he had four in the mix when the weights were released, but by Monday they had been whittled down to one with Gold Present, Casablanca Mix and Precious Cargo omitted, leaving just Mister Fisher to fight the fight for the Lambourn yard.

Barring an unlikely drift of JP McManus yellow cap proportions, Mister Fisher will also be a well-fancied single-figure price contender and he certainly ticks a lot of boxes.

He’s fresh out of his novice chasing campaign, has Cheltenham form and after chasing home Irish trio Samcro, Melon and Faugheen in the Marsh Novices’ Chase when last seen you have to acknowledge he could be very well-handicapped off a mark of 155.

But, he’s 6/1. And with his trainer’s record in the race being less than impressive, perhaps it will pay to look elsewhere.

Yes, there’s love if you want it, it sounds like Saint Sonnet, my lord

One horse that will be gunning for Mister Fisher is Paul Nicholls’ Saint Sonnet, who was just under nine lengths behind him in that aforementioned Marsh.

They jumped the third last together in that race and Saint Sonnet nudged ahead of Mister Fisher ahead of the second from home, but got tired late on, still catching the eye with his proximity to some very good horses on just his second start for his new handler.

With that experience under his belt the five-year-old is fancied to get the better of Mister Fisher in receipt of 9lb, with the bookies making him the 4/1 favourite, as Nicholls, who had to wait an awful long time to break his duck in this race, now going for his third success in the last nine years.

The Ditcheat maestro could hardly be in better form.

Hitting the ground running in October is something he always does and his impressive 30% strike-rate last month was impressive but not unusual - his October strike-rates for the last decade have been 26%, 26%, 28%, 25%, 23%, 29%, 40%, 29%, 29% and 20% in chronological order.

Naturally, as the competition hots up in November, those numbers usually dip a little, but the Nicholls yard is attacking this month with venom, too, with 15 winners and counting at the time of writing resulting in a not-too-shabby strike-rate of 41%.

So it will be interesting to see what happens at Cheltenham this weekend. Remember, last year, Nicholls had a rare blank at this meeting with no winners from 10 runners despite four of them going off at 5/2 or shorter.

But this time around he’ll possibly have the favourite for the Paddy Power and the Greatwood Hurdle, too, thanks to Thyme White, as well as other big handicap chances like Magic Saint, Brelan D’As and Yala Enki, while a strong team of novices are also set to be unleashed.

There’s Southfield Stone, Quel Destin and Fidelio Vallis to look out for, as well as topical tip Threeunderthrufive for Masters fans, a really impressive winner at Lingfield last month on his first go over hurdles.

If anyone’s going to do a Bryson DeChambeau and outmuscle his opponents at Cheltenham’s November Meeting, it’s that man Nicholls, and it looks a case of how many rather than if any.

Two big guns fired from slick Whittington

It’s not all about the big two and what Harry Whittington lacks for in numbers he makes up for in quality with two of his stable stars potentially on show this weekend.

In the big one his challenger Simply The Betts splits Saint Sonnet and Mister Fisher in the betting and on Tuesday news broke that his regular rider Gavin Sheehan has been passed fit to take the ride.

Sheehan has been sidelined since breaking his wrist in a fall at Perth in September but has targeted this ride as the carrot on the end of a stick while he’s been working his way back to fitness the last two months.

Re-watching his Cheltenham Festival success in the Brown Advisory it’s easy to see why, as he powered home that day to win despite making a couple of mistakes and though he has an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with connections will be hoping they have a Grade One horse on their hands.

Owners Andrew & Kate Brooks will take confidence that Simply The Betts can win off a mark of 157 after their Rouge Vif hosed up at Cheltenham last month off a rating of 156, a performance that has seen him settle as a 16/1 chance for the Queen Mother Champion Chase in March.

Those odds will contract further if he can beat the likes of Tingle Creek hero Defi Du Seuil and Arkle winner Put The Kettle On in the Shloer Chase on Sunday, and given he’s had the benefit of a run, with his two main opponents coming in fresh, it could happen.

Tiger Roll vs Easysland

Gone are the days when the Cross Country Chase was a good time to get the drinks in – and not just because the bars will be sadly shut at Cheltenham this weekend.

Spot Thedifference did wonders for the Cross Country chases in the early days and Garde Champetre and Balthazar King were pioneers, too, but none of them transcended these quirky contests with class like Tiger Roll.

Gordon Elliott’s National hero has won the Cross Country at the Festival twice but has only ever raced in the November version once before, when fourth to Josie’s Orders in 2018.

Significantly that was his comeback run, so hopefully he’ll strip fitter on Friday for his recent outing on the Flat as he has an enormous task in trying to give 4lb to Easysland, who beat him by 17 lengths off level weights in this year’s Glenfarclas Chase at the Festival.

David Cottin’s horse is having his first run of the season, with more Cheltenham glory and a crack at the Grand National likely to be on his agenda in the spring, so it will be fascinating to see how much these cheesewedge-hopping giants are tuned up for their first jumping assignments of the season.

Unlike the Festival version, this is a handicap, giving hope to the likes of Welsh National winner Potters Corner, having his first go at the unique track while getting 20lb from Tiger Roll.

It will be billed as a two-horse race, but with both having bigger fish to fry later in the season we’ll see if it turns out like that.

Allen key to Tizzard November team

The Colin Tizzard yard has had a slow start to the season but there have been signs of life the last few weeks and he’s used the November Meeting as a launchpad the last few years.

He’s had nine winners at this fixture since 2016 with novices like Thistlecrack, Finian’s Oscar, Slate House and Elixir De Nutz going home with winner’s trophies and he has a couple of eye-catching entries in that department at Prestbury Park this weekend.

The Big Breakaway could run in the mallardjewellers.com Novices’ Chase on Sunday, a race Thistlecrack landed at 1/7 in his novice chase season, and though this horse’s odds shouldn’t be quite as prohibitive his fencing debut is eagerly awaited.

Very lightly-raced but full of potential, The Big Breakway was beaten into fourth by the Gordon Elliott-trained superstar Envoi Allen in the Ballymore when last seen, a perfectly fine run on just his third start for Tizzard with his novice chasing campaign in mind.

Let’s just hope we get to see him, as he was pulled out of Newbury last week because of good ground and his presence this weekend might well depend on how much rain hits Cheltenham in the build-up.

Finally, there’s not only one E. Allen to look out for in the novice chasing ranks this season.

Tizzard’s Eldorado Allen jumped beautifully on his fencing debut at Newton Abbot last time, bar missing the last, as he got the better of odds-on favourite Stormy Ireland thanks to a stylish performance.

He’ll hopefully get some Cheltenham fencing experience under his belt in the Grade 2 From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase on Saturday as he bids to develop into an Arkle contender, for which he’s currently 25/1.

He might have to take on Fusil Raffles this weekend, but if he does he’ll get 3lb from that rival, and he could be the latest Tizzard up-and-comer to make a name for himself at this meeting.

Don't miss... Dave Ord's guide to the Paddy Power Gold Cup

Cheltenham Friday | Racecards & Free Video form

• 13:15 Markel Insurance Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle 40 Runners, Class 3, 2m 5f
• 13:50 Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase 17 Runners, Class 2, 1m 7f 199y
• 14:25 Sss Super Alloys Supports Racing Welfare Novices' Chase (GBB Race) 9 Runners, Class 2, 2m 4f 44y
• 15:00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (GBB Race) 14 Runners, Class 2, 3m 6f 37y
• 15:35 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Hyde Novices' Hurdle) (GBB Race) 11 Runners, Class 1, 2m 5f
• 16:05 Valda Energy Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) 30 Runners, Class 3, 2m 87y

Cheltenham Saturday | Racecards & Free Video form

• 12:30 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) 12 Runners, Class 1, 2m 87y
• 13:05 South West Syndicate Handicap Chase (Conditional Jockeys' & Amateur Riders' Race) 22 Runners, Class 3, 3m 1f
• 13:40 From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) 11 Runners, Class 1, 1m 7f 199y
• 14:15 Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) 17 Runners, Class 1, 2m 4f 44y
• 14:50Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) 16 Runners, Class 1, 2m 7f 208y
• 15:25 Paddy Power First Millionaire Qualifier Intermediate Handicap Hurdle 19 Runners, Class 3, 2m 5f
• 15:55 Karndean Designflooring Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) (GBB Race) 15 Runners, Class 1, 2m 87y

Cheltenham Sunday | Racecards & Free Video form

• 13:15 mallardjewellers.com Novices' Chase (GBB Race) 11 Runners, Class 2, 3m 80y
• 13:50 Planteur At Chapel Stud Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) 16 Runners, Class 1, 3m 3f 71y
• 14:25 Shloer Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) 7 Runners, Class 1, 1m 7f 199y
• 15:00 Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) 21 Runners, Class 1, 2m 87y
• 15:35 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Sharp Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) 7 Runners, Class 1, 2m 87y
• 16:05 High Sheriff Of Gloucestershire Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) (GBB Race) 13 Runners, Class 1, 2m 87y