Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 11
1pt win Mid Winster in 1.45 Doncaster at 20/1 (BetVictor, BoyleSports)
1pt win Supakalanistic in 2.35 Chester at 16/1 (General)
1pt e.w. The Mediterranean in 3.35 Doncaster at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
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Just how bombproof is the Hurricane?
Hurricane Lane being rated 120 and already sitting fourth in the antepost lists for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe tells you all you need to know when it comes to the pure class on show in Saturday’s Cazoo St Leger at Doncaster.
Charlie Appleby’s Frankel colt – a mile winner on heavy ground on his sole start at two – has done just about all that’s been asked of him in 2021, the one blip coming when third to stablemate Adayar in the Derby after losing both front shoes in a messy race for some.
His subsequent rise to stardom, via victories in the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris, is reflected in the price discrepancy between himself and the Richard Hannon-trained Mojo Star, who finished three and a quarter-lengths in front of him at Epsom.
There are a couple of unknown factors for Hurricane Lane going into the Leger, though, and the first is a fairly common one for favourites in this particular Classic, which surrounds stamina.
Tackling the extended mile and three-quarter trip places pressures on a thoroughbred they may not have previously known even existed, and with Aidan O’Brien running four including a couple of Galileos who have taken a liking to forcing the issue, this is going to be a thorough examination of the market leader's hitherto unproven staying power.
The other thing to consider if playing at short odds is that Hurricane Lane has yet to encounter genuinely fast ground, which may not look all that likely after some heavy showers on Friday, though it does dry out quickly on Town Moor.
In the past decade the St Leger has twice been run on going officially described as good to firm and while 5/6 chance Logician (who had won on such terrain earlier in the season) coped perfectly well two years ago, that wasn’t the case in 2011 when 2/1 favourite Sea Moon – rated 121 by the BHA assessor at the time – finished only third.
Take O'Brien to land seventh Leger
Attempting to pick holes in odds-on favourites is one thing; biting the bullet and flatly opposing them is another, but rather than ducking the jolly completely by having a bet ‘without Hurricane Lane’, I'll chance one each-way at the odds available.
Ottoman Emperor and High Definition are vying with Mojo Star for second-favouritism but THE MEDITERRANEAN looks the one who is being overlooked.
On a line through Youth Spirit, who was a close fourth to Ottoman Emperor in the Gordon Stakes before finishing a half-length third behind The Mediterranean – with Sir Lucan and High Definition even further back – in the Great Voltigeur at York, Johnny Murtagh's horse doesn’t have that much in hand at all on form.
There are also major question marks over whether Ottoman Emperor – by Excelebration out of a mile winner in Germany – will improve for the extra distance, whereas The Mediterranean looks more likely to be competing over two miles as the season goes on, and he could really relish it.
On what we’ve seen so far, stamina is definitely his forte and while seemingly having his limitations over a mile and a half exposed in the King Edward VII and in Grand Prix de Paris, when finishing over seven lengths behind Hurricane Lane, both of those races came in desperate conditions which have never really suited Galileo's progeny.
Conversely, The Mediterranean's form on good ground reads 122, the latest staying-on York second to Yibir a really tough effort from the front where he hardly did himself any favours by jumping the path after just a couple of furlongs.
Joint-third highest rated in this line-up, he's still open to plenty of improvement after just two goes in cheekpieces and I'd expect another very uncomplicated ride from stall one.
He'll no doubt need Hurricane Lane to run below his best to win but of O’Brien’s six previous Leger winners, half of them ran in the Voltigeur with two being beaten (both placed), so he fits the mould in that respect and looks well worth an interest from a value perspective.
Midgley to work magic in Portland
The Portland Handicap is surprisingly still missing from sprint specialist Paul Midgley’s CV (he’s had runners in the past six renewals, another Wise Kid doing best when third in 2015), but he’s backed to put that right courtesy of ex-Irish mare MID WINSTER.
She looks tailor-made for this precise five and a half-furlong test as she's got loads of natural speed but does seemingly find the bare minimum, especially at York, a fraction too sharp for her. Despite that she confirmed she was still at the top of her game when second to Tweet Tweet over five at the Ebor Festival, for which she was only put up 1lb to a mark of 87.
Her other peak efforts this season came when third behind Keep Busy in a Listed race at Ayr, splitting rivals rated 101 and 94 in the process, and when winning well over five furlongs off 81 here in July.
She was officially 5lb well-in that day following the fine run north of the border and is 6lb higher now but can take another step up the ladder presented with this unique test back at a course she clearly likes, having also been a very promising fourth when making her debut for the yard at this meeting last September.
Mid Winster is normally brightly away but she doesn’t have to lead and, from a middle draw in stall 14, David Egan is likely to try and sit just in behind the out-and-out blazers before mounting his challenge a bit later.
Supa selection for Chester
There are two ITV races from Chester and Invite is worth a second look in the Tote+ Stand Cup Stakes on his first run for Andrew Balding, having left Marco Botti.
A couple of three-year-olds have taken advantage of the considerable weight allowance in this mile and a half Listed race in the past decade and the lightly-raced Invite, who hasn’t raced since an unsuccessful trip to Italy in June, looks well worth a try at this trip having bounded to victory on his last UK start in a 10-furlong Doncaster handicap back in May.
At around 8/1 it’s hard to argue he’s being badly missed in the market, though, especially with Alounak and last year's winner Alignak setting a pretty lofty standard, and instead I’ll take a chance on SUPAKALANISTIC in the Homeserve Handicap.
He's one of three of these who are also entered in next month's Cesarewitch but is going to need the 4lb penalty to stand any chance of making the cut for Newmarket, and there are reasons to be optimistic.
The most obvious one is that he's still fairly handicapped here off 87 based on the fact he's now rated 126 over hurdles after a decent time of things last winter, when winning a three-mile handicap hurdle at Kempton before adding to his tally in a jumpers’ bumper at Lingfield in January.
Those improved efforts came following a maiden Flat success at Chepstow – his only previous Flat run on turf – where he had subsequent dual winner By Starlight (now rated 85) a length back in third.
Supakalanistic’s jumps form tailed off a bit in the spring sunshine but he should enjoy conditions at Chester (soft) and wasn’t totally disgraced on his recent return to action when sent off 50/1 in a novice event over a totally inadequate trip (one mile) on the all-weather at Kempton.
Since then he's undergone wind surgery – another possible source of improvement – and looks interesting here on his Flat handicap debut against largely exposed rivals.
Published at 1600 BST on 10/09/21
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