Free horse racing tips: Simon Holt previews Newmarket and Newcastle on 2000 Guineas day
Leading commentator Simon Holt has a trio of tips for Saturday's action and fancies Roger Charlton to plunder the Sagaro Stakes at Newcastle.
Recommended bets
2pts win Kameko in 3.35 Newmarket at 7/1
1pt win Major Jumbo in 1.50 Newmarket at 6/1
1pt win Withhold in 2.40 Newcastle at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
KAMEKO, the subject of strong home reports and a market mover from double-figure odds in the last fortnight, can prove a formidable rival to last season's champion juvenile Pinatubo in the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday.
Rated by his in-form trainer Andrew Balding as the best he has trained for a long time, the son of Kitten's Joy progressed in each of his four starts last season culminating in a hugely impressive three-and-a-quarter length romp in the Vertem Futurity at Newcastle last November.
That day, Kemeko looked much more professional compared to two previous defeats in the Solario at Sandown (ran green) and in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket (raced freely). At Newcastle, Oisin Murphy was able to get him switched off behind rivals and, once asked to go, his mount produced a long-striding response to quickly go clear.
The Futurity has produced the last two Guineas winners in Saxon Warrior and Magna Grecia at its normal home of Doncaster but, if anything, the all-weather Newcastle mile is a bit stiffer and Kameko should see this out strongly with the promise that he may stay a mile and a quarter.
If Pinatubo trains on to be as good as he was last year, then he could well justify long-time ante-post favouritism.
The son of the late Shamardal is unbeaten in six starts and won the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Vintage at Goodwood and the National at The Curragh by wide margins.
Pinatubo's nine length demolition of Armory and the re-opposing Arizona in Ireland was extraordinary, and earned him an official rating of 128. Timeform rate him the best juvenile since Celtic Swing.
If he can run to that rating, then he will be home and dry here. However, he was less impressive when encountering soft ground in the Dewhurst on his final start, beating Arizona by only two lengths on which performance the official handicapper had him running to 120, just 2lb ahead of Kameko.
It's possible that the combination of a long season and the easy conditions underfoot inhibited Pinatubo slightly that day, albeit that he showed a great attitude under pressure in what is regarded as the most prestigious two-year-old race in the calendar.
Stamina for a mile should be no problem but, he was quite a diminutive colt last year and may need to have strengthened up (trainer Charlie Appleby says he has) over the winter to stay ahead of horses who were possibly less precocious in 2019.
Arizona's trainer Aidan O'Brien boasts ten victories in the 2000 Guineas, including four of the last five runnings and, as usual, is well represented with four runners.
The mount of Ryan Moore, this son of No Nay Never had little luck in running before staying on into fifth round Santa Anita's turning mile at the Breeders Cup in November and is reported to have done well since.
A son of the speedy No Nay Never, Arizona is not a guaranteed stayer perhaps, though his brilliant trainer thinks he can last home. Stable companion Wichita (Frankie Dettori) finished third in the Dewhurst and is also by No Nay Never.
The Godolphin pair Military March and Al Suhail fought out a close finish to the Autumn Stakes (1m soft) here last October but both are bred to stay further and are possibly on trial for the Derby.
One who could run well at a big price is Kenzai Warrior who beat the smart Max Vega first time out at Salisbury last season over a mile and then showed plenty of tenacity when dropped to seven furlongs to win the Horris Hill here in testing conditions.
His trainer Roger Teal sent out Tip Two Win to chase home Saxon Warrior at 50-1 in this race two years ago.
Earlier, MAJOR JUMBO can improve on last year's third place behind Mabs Cross in the Betfair Supports Racing Welfare Palace House Stakes.
Kevin Ryan's charge, a winner at this meeting in 2018, usually goes well fresh and, on his reappearance last year, ran a blinder to chase home the smart Invincible Spirit at Doncaster.
This year's Palace House doesn't look quite so strong and Major Jumbo had Judicial behind him 12 months ago. A bigger threat could be Adam Kirby's mount Shades Of Blue who improved considerably in the second half of 2019 going down by a tiny margin to Glass Slippers in a Group Three at Longchamp in September after which she was probably unsuited by the soft ground when unplaced behind the same filly in the Prix de l'Abbaye.
At Newcastle, WITHHOLD is fancied time land the rescheduled Betway Sagaro Stakes wearing blinkers for the first time and returning to the scene of one of his finest triumphs in the 2018 Northumberland Plate (beating the re-opposing Prince Of Arran) having won the Cesarewitch the previous autumn.
The seven-year-old does not stand a great deal of racing but trainer Roger Charlton usually has him fit and ready after each absence, and he reappeared last season to carry a big weight to victory at Newbury.
Later successful at listed level, he was not disgraced when fifth behind Kew Gardens and Stradivarius (Royal Line, now 3lb worse off, third) on Champions Day at Ascot and has a decent form chance at these weights.
Posted at 1655 BST on 05/06/20
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