Bundesliga: Weekend preview with best bets and odds for matches on Saturday June 6
With profit in recent weeks, Tom Carnduff is hoping for more and has three best bets for Saturday's Bundesliga action.
Recommended bets
1pt Robert Skov to score anytime in Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim at 14/5
1pt Joshua Kimmich 3+ tackles in Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich at 9/4
1pt Hertha Berlin to have 12+ shots v Borussia Dortmund at 15/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Borussia Dortmund v Hertha Berlin (17:30 BST)
While a glance at the table would tell you that Leverkusen v Bayern is the best game on Saturday, the true game of the weekend comes in the late kick-off as Borussia Dortmund welcome Hertha Berlin.
Dortmund bounced back from that defeat against Bayern in the best possible fashion as they hammered struggling Paderborn 6-1 on Sunday. Jadon Sancho's hat-trick grabbed the headlines as the England international left it late to score his other two goals.
They won't have it easy this week though as Dortmund welcome an in-form Hertha side. They look a completely different outfit under Bruno Labbadia's leadership and finally look to be fulfilling their potential.
There's no avoiding that Hertha spent big this season as they look to challenge those at the top. What's happened instead is that they've seen head coaches come and go but Labbadia has now moved them to within four points of the top-six.
It's probably too much to ask of them to secure a European spot but they are certainly a side to consider next season. In the short term, they'll be looking to push Dortmund all the way as they did against Leipzig - where a late penalty helped Hertha secure a point in a 2-2 draw.
A characteristic of this Hertha team is their intent on attack. They now have talent going forward and they intend to use it; Labbadia's arrival as head coach seems the perfect fit for what they want.
Hertha were one of the teams with the lowest shots per game average but that figure has moved up since the break. They have seen an average of 12.75 shots per game over the previous four outings and outshot Leipzig in their contest a couple of weeks ago.
Dortmund may be one of the teams that have seen a lower shots against total but they have been open to conceding chances in recent games. Paderborn, despite conceding six, posted nine shots while struggling Schalke had ten in their 4-0 defeat. Bayern, in a close contest that decided which way the title was going, posted eleven despite only scoring once.
Given Hertha's upturn in form and that strength in attack we should expect this to be a game where the net is hit on multiple occasions. For Hertha, they should see numerous opportunities and it's worth playing to their new average under the current head coach.
Sky Bet make it 15/8 that Hertha have 12 or more total shots on Saturday. That is a price worth backing considering their recent showings.
Ultimately, this is a game where Dortmund should come out on top with goals under their belt - even without the prolific Erling Haaland who could be absent again through a knee injury.
Dortmund's defence has improved with Mats Hummels' presence but they have looked suspect at times throughout their four games since the break. If you give Hertha a good opportunity to score, they have shown that they are more than likely to take it.
The hosts looking to break forward with speed will also make them vulnerable on the counter attack and Hertha have shown how quickly they can get up the pitch. It doesn't strike you as a game where Dortmund will be comfortable in victory as we have seen against Schalke and Paderborn.
The Asian Handicap has the home side at -1.5 and they are worth inclusion in any weekend accumulators. The value comes in looking at the away side though and them aiming to test Roman Burki in the Dortmund net.
Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hertha Berlin (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Best bet: Hertha Berlin to have 12+ shots at 15/8
EXCLUSIVE SPORTING LIFE PRICE BOOST: Dodi Lukebakio to score anytime - was 7/2, NOW 5/1
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim
Fortuna Dusseldorf would have been relieved to see Werder Bremen's good form come to an end at the hands of Eintracht Frankfurt in midweek, but they still face relegation trouble and need to find a way to overtake Mainz who sit one point above them in 15th.
They were easily beaten 5-0 by Bayern Munich last weekend, a game that should always be viewed as a free hit, and this week sees them face a Hoffenheim side who have won their last two.
This game actually has both teams at 0 on the Asian Handicap highlighting that the money isn't quite sure which way it is going to go. A win would help Dusseldorf ease their relegation fears and three points for the visitors would move them into the top-six.
There's certainly more appeal in the 7/5 price on Hoffenheim than the 7/4 for Dusseldorf. They have put a relatively poor second-half of the season behind them by capitalising on the fixture list since the break. That should continue here.
Hoffenheim's presence in this game could mean that it is one that fails to hit the over 2.5 goals margin. Their last four away games have all seen two goals or less; while Dusseldorf were also recently held to a 0-0 draw by fellow strugglers Paderborn.
Those who have followed our Bundesliga previews since the resumption know that we like to pick out a goalscorer and there's real value in taking the 14/5 available with a number of bookmakers on Robert Skov to find the net anytime. He scored in Hoffenheim's recent draw with Paderborn.
The term 'utility man' fits Skov perfectly. He played on the right wing for Copenhagen last season before joining Hoffenheim in the summer; going onto play in attacking midfield before being switched to left-back.
Skov would then be pushed up the pitch into left midfield, returning to left-back, and then back to his usual right wing role alongside the occasion appearance in the striker's role.
This game should be one in which he takes the preferred right wing position. Being a regular feature there lead to him netting 24 goals across the 2018/19 Danish Superligaen season but he's only had a handful of appearances playing in the role for Hoffenheim.
A point of interest is that he has registered the highest number of shots from set-piece situations across the entire Bundesliga. His 16 is well clear of the eleven posted by Augsburg's Philipp Max and Freiburg's Jonathan Schmid in second. He is getting the opportunities to find the net.
Skov's 14/5 price looks a tad too generous for a player who is now returning to their preferred position - a position that has regularly delivered goals across his career. His ratio playing at right wing has been a goal every 2.6 games; an extended spell in this role will be beneficial to all parties.
We can also factor in that across his last three appearances playing on the right wing he had a total of nine shots - there were also three on target in a forward role against Paderborn. With Dusseldorf conceding an average of 14.4 shots per game, we should expect opportunities for Skov and Hoffenheim here.
Hoffenheim were a winning accumulator selection last weekend and there's enough confidence in them to predict a similar outcome against Dusseldorf. The bonus of moving into the top-six with three points will also provide that extra motivation.
So much has been made on the trend of away teams winning since the break and there's an expectation that will continue here. Hoffenheim's price alone is appealing, but it's worth siding with the near 3/1 on offer for Skov to be among the goals once again.
Score prediction: Fortuna Dusseldorf 0-2 Hoffenheim (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Robert Skov to score anytime at 14/5
More Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich may have all-but-secured the Bundesliga title following their fantastic spell under Hansi Flick's guidance, but they will have an impact on the race for the top-four with their next two fixtures coming against Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Monchengladbach.
Bayern aren't stumbling and the chasing pack need a major collapse if they are to be denied yet another Bundesliga crown. Eleven points separates these two sides and that gap should be bigger at the full-time whistle.
The Asian Handicap has the visitors on -1.25 and little argument can be made against their chances of more points here. They are a real force under Flick and there is every chance they could win the Champions League when Europe's top competition returns.
Over 3.5 sitting at an odds-on price highlights how this should be another game filled with goals. Bayern's involvement will have an impact on that price, but Leverkusen have also seen six of their last seven matches hitting that total.
There is strength in the argument of taking Bayern on the -1 handicap at a price of 11/10 but the value in this contest comes in the stats market, with Joshua Kimmich expected to be involved in the tackles.
His winning goal against Dortmund set them on their way to another Bundesliga title and the defensive midfielder is one of the stars of this Bayern side. His midfield partnership with Thiago has been key; while playing alongside Leon Goretzka in recent weeks has also proven successful.
Kimmich's tackle rate has dropped since the winter break but he posted a high number against the other top teams. There were five against Borussia Monchengladbach, a season high, while there were also three in the first meeting against Dortmund.
Fixtures against RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen also had two each and this could be a contest where the midfield battle will be key. There is every chance that Flick will look at Kimmich to be the one to try and keep the influential Kai Havertz out of the game - that will see his tackle count rise.
The midfielder's importance to this Bayern side is reflected in the fact that he regularly plays the full 90 minutes. Three of the four games since the break have also seen him have full involvement even with the substitute allowance being moved up from three to five. The game where he did come off, a 5-2 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt, saw him leave the pitch in the 85th minute.
This is set to be another game where Bayern are successful and as such there is always going to be difficulty in finding real value in the outright result. The 4/9 price for them to beat a Champions League hopeful away from home reflects their current dominance.
The good news is that this game should bring goals which is always a bonus for the neutral. Hertha Berlin were the last team to keep Leverkusen out in mid-December, while they were of course successful when these two teams met at the Allianz Arena.
That was a time where Bayern were adjusting to Flick's style and it's clear that they are a different side now to the one they were then.
Backing a Bayern win with a margin provides a satisfactory odds-against price, but it's worth siding with Kimmich to post another decent tackles tally at the current price available.
Score prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Joshua Kimmich 3+ tackles at 9/4
Odds correct at 1300 BST (04/06/20)
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