Racing tips and preview: Best value bets for Wincanton and Doncaster
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 6
1pt win Alexander James in 1.25 Doncaster at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Flyin' Solo in 2.40 Doncaster at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Ofalltheginjoints in 3.00 Wincanton at 14/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Already advised:
1pt win A Toi Phil in Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at 20/1 - NR
Trust Solo to return in flying form
Some really competitive races at Doncaster to sign off the 2021 Flat season and the Virgin Bet November Handicap looks a belting contest.
Cesarewitch third Calling The Wind isn’t just a very smart stayer, as he proved at Newbury two starts ago when pushing Makram close, but he’s fighting a bit of a battle with the assessor and his campaign began at the beginning of May so I can let him go especially as he’s among the market leaders here.
Charlie Appleby may be sunning himself in Southern California with strong chances at the Breeders’ Cup but it looks highly significant he’s moved to secure the services of Adam Farragher for Global Storm, who now goes with cheekpieces applied.
They are both massive players in a wide-open race and I’d give a nod of respect to Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Deja as well but at a bigger price, and getting almost a stone in weight from all of that trio, the fresh FLYIN’ SOLO looks well worth chancing.
He’s got a pretty long layoff to overcome having not raced since the middle of July but he’s been gelded during the interim and it’s significant trainer David Menuisier – who is 3-26 with horses having their first run after such an operation – brings him back for this valuable pot as he could still creep into a 0-90.
He was obviously expected to win when last seen at Newbury (13/8 favourite) but I thought he ran another sound enough race in third, especially as he was conceding a full 23lb to the three-year-old winner (was giving a stone to the second too), and he’d been progressing well prior to that, including wins over 10 furlongs and this mile and a half trip at Newbury and York respectively.
Those two handicaps produced 21 subsequent winners between them (not including himself) so I’d be surprised if there wasn’t still some untapped potential from Flyin' Solo’s mark, and there's every chance the gelding will help eke it out of him.
Alexander the great for Appleby?
I can give the Listed Virgin Bet Wentworth Stakes a miss but ALEXANDER JAMES makes plenty of appeal in the seven-furlong Virgin Bet Handicap, having looked on an upward trajectory since resuming from 118 days away in the summer.
It’s fair to say this horse, who started out with Iain Jardine and looked quite a promising three-year-old at the time, has been around the houses a bit having been switched to France and then ran once over hurdles at Doncaster for Fergal O’Brien last December, but Mick Appleby evidently loves nothing more than a project.
Alexander James really caught the eye with a creditable fifth behind Shelir at York on October 8 and backed that up with an even better effort when second to the unexposed Imrahor at Haydock just seven days later.
The handicapper has given him a negligible rise (1lb) on the back of that and he still looks really well treated given he won at Listed level at Chantilly a couple of years ago. That success came at nine furlongs and the two more recent promising efforts have been over a mile, each on soft ground, but conditions are in his favour again here and I’m not too put off by the drop right back to seven, with the big field and a strong pace forecast.
Appleby has booked Frederick Larson claiming 7lb to assist with the slight step up in class and although he might have a job on his hands against last year’s winner Tomfre, I still feel there is some room for improvement for this trainer and the 14/1 looks more than fair.
Cat looks capable of pouncing at Aintree
I was obviously disappointed to see long-range fancy A Toi Phil hadn’t been declared for the Betway Grand Sefton Handicap Chase and the race has really cut up quite a bit with the likes of Caribean Boy clearly being pointed elsewhere as well.
My own shortlist was quickly whittled down to two and given they are the fairly obvious pair of Cat Tiger and Hogan’s Height, I won’t be recommending either at the prices.
Hogan’s Height won by 16 lengths in this race two years ago and has been quite lightly raced since. He’s had a lovely prep over hurdles and should be cherry-ripe, but Cat Tiger is worth expanding on a little.
He had genuine Graded form over fences in France and was doing himself proud as a novice hurdler for Paul Nicholls and David Maxwell in 2019-20, winning three times before pulling up in the Albert Bartlett won by Monkfish.
Last year, following a breathing operation, he wasn’t seen until March when winning a hunter chase and he went on to be third in the Foxhunters at Aintree the following month.
The assessor dropped him 5lb for that effort in Liverpool, as he was beaten by lower-rated rivals, and has given another 3lb back after he was turned over at skinny odds over the extended three miles at Southwell at the end of May, leaving Cat Tiger looking decidedly well handicapped off 134 for what will be his belated handicap debut in Britain.
He’s probably the one to beat back down in trip, with Time To Get Up potentially more in need of the run, but the price is no more than you’d expect.
Take team Tizzard to serve up a treat
I’d rather strike a bet in Wincanton’s 60th Badger Beer Handicap Chase, with OFALLTHEGINJOINTS backed to keep the ball rolling for the Tizzards.
High-profile wins for Fiddlerontheroof and Eldorado Allen have helped the yard back into the spotlight in recent weeks and this horse has the capacity to go through the ranks a bit in his second season over fences this time around.
He made some costly errors at times last year but he won a novices’ handicap over three miles at Exeter second time out and was arguably better than that in pure form terms when fifth behind Happygolucky at the National Festival at Aintree.
Typically, given the way the Tizzard horses were running last season, he took a backward step on his final start of the year at Uttoxeter, but I can forgive him that, and the rusty comeback run over hurdles at the same venue last month.
He’ll be much sharper here, with blinkers added to help sharpen up his jumping, he seems happy enough on any ground and certainly handles good, while off 137 he’s only 1lb higher than for the victory 12 months ago. Another second-time-out success could be in the offing.
Published at 1600 GMT on 05/11/21
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