Value Bet tips: Saturday April 16
1pt win Heights Of Abraham in 3.14 Musselburgh at 14/1 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt e.w. The Turpinator in 3.35 Newbury at 25/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Doyle to Spring a surprise
It’s not unusual for Newbury’s Highclere Thoroughbred Racing 30th Anniversary Spring Cup to fail to attract a maximum field of 27 but, much like last month’s Lincoln at Doncaster, this weekend’s big mile handicap doesn’t appear nearly as strong as it has been in the past.
Nothing against Mr Tyrrell, number 17 who runs from 1lb out of the weights, but you’ve got to go back to the 2016 edition which was rescheduled to Chelmsford’s Polytrack due to waterlogging for the last time an 82-rated horse made the cut.
The competition for places – or lack thereof – clearly isn’t a problem for trainer Tom Clover who must have been delighted his Rogue Bear wasn’t nudged up at least a pound or two for his eyecatching Doncaster third behind Johan.
He’s consequently 1lb better off with Lincoln runner-up Saleymm, who looked to have no real excuses when almost making all on Town Moor, only losing out to Johan who had been drawn next door in stall three.
The fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh (namely Modern News) were all drawn in single figures too so it doesn’t take much of an imagination to mark up Rogue Bear’s effort from box 19 quite considerably.
The problem with him is his price which looks no more than fair even at 9/2, with Saleymm perfectly opposable at similar odds given he got what looked the perfect trip out in front at Donny.
There is always fresh blood in this race and I’ll definitely be keeping an eye out for thrice-raced Cu Chulainn who might need a little further than the bare mile but is realistically handicapped on his Kempton novice form in the autumn, notably when splitting Emblem Empire (now rated 94) and Gaassee (94) first time out.
He’s undergone a breathing operation since he was last sighted but it’s always risky to go in first time, whereas second time out can often pay off when it comes to the wind op, and with that in mind I reckon there could be loads more improvement to come from THE TURPINATOR.
A veteran of just five races to this point, the five-year-old has evidently had issues and he’s changed hands a couple of times as a result but the immediate improvement when starting out for Tom Ward last month was stark.
Not only did the horse prove ahead of the assessor in defying a mark of 84, he actually battled back close home having had every opportunity to throw the towel in, as might have been the case when beaten a neck at the same venue back in August.
On first impressions at least, it looks like the winter surgery may have worked the oracle and although forced to run off a 5lb higher mark back on turf this weekend, the form has worked out to a degree with the third just beaten in a better race at Lingfield subsequently and the seventh winning a minor seven-furlong handicap at Leicester.
Ward has put The Turpinator in at Kempton on Monday and it may well be that he’s a much happier horse and able to let himself down better on all-weather surfaces, but one moderate turf outing in his life is nowhere near enough to convince me he hates the green stuff and, with Hollie Doyle booked and chunky prices on offer, now could be the time to chance him given the fierce pace of this event is bound to play to his strengths.
Keep eye out for Carol Ann
The horse of most interest in the Fred Darling (Dubai Duty Free Stakes) could turn out to be Miss Carol Ann for Roger Varian.
She absolutely dotted up in what was admittedly quite a weak Newmarket fillies’ maiden (7f, good to firm) at the end of September and was fast-tracked up to Listed level the following month. The ground came up really testing on the day at Newbury and, having been sent off the 9/4-favourite, the daughter of Kingman ultimately proved disappointing in sixth behind the reopposing Jumbly.
However, the replay is well worth another look as she pulled Andrea Atzeni’s arms for the vast majority of the race and still looked to be travelling powerfully before finding next to nothing from a furlong and a half out.
Perhaps the race came too quickly, or the going was much softer than she cares for, but she’s a fascinating project going forward and could develop into a very useful operator this term, potentially over sprint distances on decent ground.
Leading Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes contender Perfect Power could turn out to be among the best three-year-old sprinters all being well and although the step up to seven furlongs could stretch him, I’d still expect Richard Fahey’s colt to give Angel Bleu and Lusail a real run for their money.
However, together with the opening Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes, it’s another race I can comfortably leave well alone from a punting point of view.
Money for Makanah looks significant
Some competitive handicaps north of the border at Musselburgh and the Betway Holyrood Handicap is an interesting contest as it features loads of familiar faces including a couple – namely Copper Knight and Justanotherbottle – who could just be in the grip of the assessor at the moment.
Dakota Gold would have a major chance off a mark of 101 on anything like his peak 2020 form and his high draw in 11 by the stands’ side looks a significant advantage, but I wonder if this first run back might just put him spot-on for something in the weeks to come.
Raasel is the obvious improver given his five wins on the bounce when last seen but I’m not convinced he’ll be ideally placed from trap three and preference would be for Makanah, who goes really well fresh, handles all types of ground and also gets on exceptionally well with Paul Mulrennan.
However, not only were the double-figure prices (14/1) mopped up very early, the Friday morning 8/1 - which I felt was still quite fair - quickly became 5/1 (and as short as 7/2 in places) so I'll have to let the market settle down and hope he drifts back out on Saturday morning before considering a bet in the race.
New trip could help Abraham hit the heights
Emmet Mullins' Zero Ten was another Good Friday 'steamer' despite the fact he's conceding lumps of weight to all his rivals in the Betway Queen's Cup. You'd have to have massive respect for the Irish horse given his trainer's ability to line on up but this track can certainly take a bit of knowing and it's jockey Benoit De La Sayette's first ride here, as well as the horse's maiden voyage to these shores.
Preference at the odds is a small, win-only dart on HEIGHTS OF ABRAHAM, who has been gelded during an extended period off the track having hung under pressure when last seen here last June.
He was far from disgraced in finishing fourth to Dhushan in the Edinburgh Cup that day, clearly not suited by the slow tempo and relative dash for the line.
His trainer Keith Dalgleish wastes no time in stepping him up to a mile and three-quarters this year and everything he was doing in 2021, including an easy soft-ground win over 10 furlongs at Ripon last May, suggests he could thrive for a true test of stamina.
Granted there isn't a whole heap of pace-enforcers in here but the three Johnston runners, along with Island Brave and Sir Rumi, should ensure they're not hanging around early and Heights Of Abraham might be one to be played late.
He can carry his head a little high but he does find generously all the same and if they've ironed out one or two kinks during the layoff, this lightly-raced four-year-old might be ready to really kick on as a stayer.
Published at 1600 BST on 15/04/22
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
