Value Bet tips: Wednesday December 29
1pt win Coeur De Lion in 2.00 Newbury at 22/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Tinkers Hill Tommy in 2.35 Newbury at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Kalooki in 2.50 Doncaster at 13/2 (bet365)
Is there a bet in the Challow Hurdle?
The Mansionbet Challow Novices’ Hurdle is the Grade One feature at Newbury on Wednesday and I’m not totally convinced it’s quite as cut-and-dried as the market indicates.
Paul Nicholls' Stage Star predictably tops the betting after facile victories against fairly moderate opposition at Chepstow and here last time, while Gordon Elliott sends over good-ground winner Gringo D’aubrelle who is going to be facing contrasting conditions with a fair bit more rain expected in deepest Berkshire.
That leaves impressive Sandown winner Lossiemouth, whom his trainer suggested wouldn’t want the ground too testing, and Dan Skelton’s curveball West Balboa, a lightly-raced mare who could hardly have won with more ease in a small-field novice event against her own sex at Warwick.
At a wild price, I wouldn’t completely rule out a big run from High Stakes (25/1), who seemingly showed a bit of the Scorpion in him when throwing it away on hurdling debut at Ayr. He’s got plenty of experience from point-to-points and bumpers, including a wide-margin win at Wexford for previous connections back in March, and I reckon he was the best horse in the race by some way in Scotland.
He’s the lowest-rated with Timeform in here but looks likely to get a soft lead and there’s very few people more dangerous around Newbury in that kind of scenario than High Stakes’ jockey Gavin Sheehan.
He’s probably not going to be quite good enough, though, and Sky Bet’s 12/1 betting ‘without Stage Star’ is passed over too as it could be that Lossiemouth is in fact as classy as he looked at Sandown, and ultimately the one they all have to beat.
Trust King to have Coeur ready
It’s not like there aren’t good punting opportunities on the card elsewhere and old warrior COEUR DE LION looks the wrong price at odds north of 20/1 for the Bank A Winner With Mansionbet Handicap Hurdle.
He’s been a really solid horse for Alan King over the years, winning a couple over hurdles and three times on the Flat including the 2019 Chester Plate (consolation for the Cup) and the 2020 Ascot Stakes. He beat Grade One-winning hurdler Verdana Blue on the latter occasion, scoring from a Flat mark of 91, which is precisely what’s he’s rated now after another decent time of things on the level earlier this year.
He failed to add to his tally in just four starts during 2021 but was fourth in the Chester Cup, sixth back at Royal Ascot and then finished down the field at Glorious Goodwood at the end of July. He presumably picked up an injury there as he’s not raced since but King has his horses in good form and Coeur De Lion has gone well fresh in the past so I'm overlooking the fact the trainer has publicly suggested he is likely to come on a bit for the run.
His form after a break of 50 days or more (NH and Flat) reads a very respectable 31215205107 and he looks well-treated in this code now from a perch of 127 having been a fair sixth off 131 around here last November.
He was fifth in Wednesday’s corresponding race (off 135) two years back as well so it could well have been the target for a while, and the more rain the better for him.
A little history repeating for Curtis?
The Follow @Mansionbetrace On Twitter Mandarin Handicap Chase tends to go to a progressive type and the two blindingly obvious ones are hat-trick seeking Saint Palais and David Pipe’s Gericault Roque, who looked a shade unlucky not to open his account when beaten half a length at Chepstow last time.
Aged four and five respectively, they should have loads more to offer as they gain further experience in handicap chase company but with all eyes on the young guns I can’t help but look the other way and back 10-year-old TINKERS HILL TOMMY.
Trainer Rebecca Curtis won this event in 2016 with Potters Cross and her supposed first-string Wayfinder (10/1) is owned by the same people, but Tinkers Hill Tommy is just as appealing and twice the price.
As was the case with Potters Cross, he’s already won around Newbury and it was quite a taking performance he produced over a slightly shorter trip here at the end of March, winning with ears pricked and in so doing defying a 7lb rise for his previous victory over three miles and a furlong at Hereford.
He went on to post a respectable second (5/4 favourite) at Ludlow the following month, showing he was still on the upgrade despite his age, and the sharp course there didn’t look to be helping him at all. It was rather surprising, then, to see the horse make his comeback at Ludlow in November and he duly pulled up having looked short of peak fitness.
However, he went to Haydock for a classy veterans’ chase last time and wasn’t running too badly before falling after halfway. The assessor has dropped him another 2lb so he’s now just 5lb higher than for his course success in the spring and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this usually sound jumper put in a career best run back at this track after just a dozen chase starts in his life to this point.
Grey day at Doncaster
Doncaster is renowned for handling the rain better than most courses, certainly in the north of England, but more heavy showers are expected through the morning and KALOOKI looks the horse to be on with that in mind.
A strapping son of Martaline, Philip Hobbs’ grey contested three Graded races after making an impressive start as a novice chaser at Newbury last November and while not quite up to that level he did bookend the campaign with positive performances by pushing Espoir De Teillee close in a handicap at the end of March.
That was back at Newbury and he was clearly fancied (4/1 favourite) on his seasonal reappearance in a competitive event there last month but made some shuddering errors, from which he could never fully recover (though, to his credit, he did rally to latch onto the leaders at the top of the straight).
It was a run that appeared to be needed on the face of it and, having been eased 2lb, he now takes a drop into Class 3 company for the first time since the runaway win first time out last term.
A dual winner on soft in his novice hurdle days and generally showing his best form on flat, left-handed tracks, there’s plenty going for him in the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Chase providing he can eradicate the sloppy jumping errors.
Published at 1500 GMT on 28/12/21
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