The top commentator looks ahead to the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes and reckons last year's form should hold up again at Ascot.
The role of pacemakers in major races has again been a controversial talking point this season.
Pacemakers in the King George are nothing new and, in fairness, helped produce the 'Race of the Century' in 1975 in which the Derby winner Grundy only just beat Bustino in a pulsating finish.
Two less talented horses called Highest and Kinglet set a blistering, baton-switching pace to facilitate their strong-staying stable-companion Bustino, in the same way that Chris Brasher and Chris Chataway helped Roger Bannister to famously run the first sub four-minute mile 21 years earlier.
To this day, pacemakers are a regular feature of top class athletic meetings and world record attempts, but it's a sport that bookmakers have, historically and understandably, been wary about laying too many bets on.
Not so horse racing which is largely financed by betting and, if the BHA don't fancy tackling the problem, they should at least create some 'possible pacemaker' symbol to be printed alongside a horse's name in racecards.
Just to add a little more transparency.
Once again, there is no guarantee that the chasing pack will bother getting too involved with an all-action Action in the early stages, but it's a field full of proven stayers and none will want to be too far back if they don't go fast enough.
There are few stronger finishers than Calandagan, last year's winner, who will have to be on every shortlist after his last-to-first defence of the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud just under three weeks ago which followed a lifeless display in the Coronation Cup.
Connections blamed the soft ground and the Epsom course that day, but was I the only one who considered the possibility that he may have 'gone'?
Oh me of little faith; he came roaring back and, if Epsom isn't his tasse de thé, Ascot is plus agréable.
Calandagan's record at the Royal course comprises three wins and a second from four visits, including the King Edward V11 Stakes (as a three year-old), a second to Anmaat in the 2024 Qipco Champion Stakes, last year's defeat of Kalpana in the King George and a brilliant beating of Ombudsman in the Champion Stakes last October.
Afterwards, he proved himself the best horse in the world by winning the Japan Cup before returning to land the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March.
Quite simply, he is a sensational racehorse but, taking a more dispassionate view, he had only a head in hand of Masquerade Ball in Tokyo, and the recovery time between St Cloud and Ascot this time is one week less.
Moreover, with 15lb in hand officially over the Grand Prix runner-up Cualificar, the win wasn't definitive proof that he is back.
Saturday's rematch is just one aspect of what is an intriguing renewal.
Like the country's long losing run in the Arc, Japan is still seeking a first win in the King George (from fewer representatives) but Masquerade Ball, who won the Group One Tenno Sho last November before his clash with Calandagan, is top class and shaped well on his return at Sha Tin in April when chasing home local specialist Romantic Warrior over just a mile and a quarter.
He seems to be a remarkably consistent horse but, given how difficult it has been for European horses in the past to win in Japan (and vice versa), he may have had some home advantage when running Calandagan so close.
Fellow raider Wurttemberg nearly pulled off a massive surprise when a 206/1 nose second to the high class Croix Du Nord at Kyoto over two miles in May but this is half a mile shorter. Expect Oisin Murphy to have him in a handy position, maybe even the closest to the pacemaker(s).
Calandagan's stable companion Goliath, the winner of this race in 2024, has been going well lately and definitely lost momentum when Christophe Soumillon's right foot slipped out of its iron in the closing stages of the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot in which Giavellotto just held off last year's King George runner-up Kalpana.
Since then, Kalpana has reportedly been working superbly and she is another who clearly loves Ascot having won the last two runnings of the Fillies and Mares Championship on Champions Day. The 8/1 available at the time of writing looks value.
Finally, what of the Aidan O'Brien-trained team? Unusually, the master of Ballydoyle, who has been scooping up Group Ones all season, is currently operating in the doldrums at a moderate 9% strike rate (in the last two weeks.) But he is strongly represented, notably with the three-year-old Benvenuto Cellini (Ryan Moore) who vindicated his high reputation when beating the Derby winner Christmas Day in the Irish version. He gets the weight-for-age allowance and this beautiful mover will relish the likely ground conditions.
It's just a question of whether the form is good enough.
After an odds-on blip in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, Minnie Hauk (Wayne Lordan) looked back on track when chasing home Ombudsman in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at the Royal meeting, but she was beaten four lengths and third-placed Daryz appeared below par.
In the latter race, both Godolphin and Ballydoyle fielded pacemakers - 66/1 and 125/1 chances - who went well clear together while the opposition simply waited for them to fold up in the home straight. It all seemed rather pointless and they stopped very quickly.
If a similar scenario plays out on Saturday, the jockeys need to be in the right place and avoid the front runner(s) when they fall back.
In a terrific renewal, a back-to-his-best Calandagan can win again and, like last year, fellow course specialist Kalpana may prove his most serious rival.
More on the King George
- Graham Cunningham on nostalgia and a strong place fancy
- David Cleary with the Timeform view
- Podcast: King George preview
- Matt Brocklebank: King George horse-by-horse guide
- Alex Hammond: Calandagan can win again
- Calandagan 'spot on' for title defence'
- Masquerade Ball faces his 'greatest test'
- Balding targets top-three finish with Kalpana
- David Ord: Ascot huge day for Cellini
More from Sporting Life
- Free bets
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.al
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
