David Cleary outlines the Timeform view ahead of Saturday's King George, taking into consideration tactics, pace, pedigree and paddock notes as well as form.
King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, one mile and a half, 3yo+
The King George, first run in 1951, was for much of the next 50 years the undisputed middle-distance championship race in the British calendar. It was often the target for the top European horses – Ribot was among the early winners – and was an obvious destination for the Derby winner.
Between 1970 and 2001, three year olds were dominant – Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Grundy, Troy, Shergar, Dancing Brave, Nashwan and Generous were among the host of winners of that age. Galileo, the 2001 winner, following up his successes in the Derby and Irish Derby, looked to continue that trend. However, since then only six more three year olds have won the race, with only one Derby winner, Adayar, successful, though there are two Oaks winners, Taghrooda and Enable, who added the King George to their record.
The rise in importance of the Irish Derby is one factor. The other, more significant one, is the focus on the top mile-and-a-quarter races. For a Derby winner's prospects as a stallion, victory in the Eclipse, International or the Irish Champion is much preferred to a victory in the King George. It's ironic, given the dominance of Galileo as a stallion, that the vast majority of the colts to win the King George since him have ended up covering jumping mares or standing in Japan.
Best winning performances on Timeform ratings since 2001
- 140 Harbinger
- 134 Galileo
- 133 Alamshar
- 132 Doyen, Dylan Thomas, Novellist
- 130 Adayar, Azamour, Hukum
Harbinger produced one of the greatest middle-distance performances of the century when he won the 2010 running by 11 lengths from Cape Blanco. It was a freakish display, though he had looked a really good horse at times previously – he was an impressive winner of the Gordon Stakes at three before running unaccountably poorly in the Great Voltigeur and he had won his three starts prior to the King George at four, including the Hardwicke at the Royal meeting.
Unfortunately, Harbinger wasn't able to back up the performance, injury preventing his racing again after Ascot. Harbinger was sold to go to stud in Japan, where he has been a successful sire, though, out of sight out of mind, his stunning performance in this race is perhaps not so well remembered as it should be.
Although the King George is now open to geldings, it is only in the last two years that they have triumphed, with Goliath (127) and then Calandagan (128) putting up performances that figure towards the lower end of the scale for winners. Both are in the field again.
Given his dominance in Group 1 races, it is surprising that Aidan O'Brien's most recent winner of the race was Highland Reel in 2016. Galileo, the first of his four winners of the race, is the only three year old among the quartet.
Tactics
Last year's King George saw a rematch between Calandagan and Jan Brueghel, Jan Brueghel having got the better of Calandagan narrowly at the end of a well-run Coronation Cup at Epsom the previous month. Jan Brueghel had the same pacemaker in a smaller field at Ascot, but he made his own running and at a much steadier tempo and was done for speed in the straight.
In trying to defeat Calandagan this time, it seems unlikely that the Ballydoyle team will make the same mistake, certainly so far as Benvenuto Cellini is concerned – he was patiently ridden in a well-run race when landing the Irish Derby, and Action and Lambourn look to have been declared to ensure another here.
Stable second string Minnie Hauk's record suggests she would cope better with a greater test of speed, though a well-run race would do no harm either. She's been running around a mile and a quarter, so far this year, a good second to Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales's Stakes last time out.
Last year's second Kalpana is also likely to be ridden handily. In her last three runs at Ascot, in this race in 2025, the Fillies & Mares and the Hardwicke last month, Kalpana has been sent for home early in the straight. Given she won just the middle of those three races, perhaps being held on to for slightly longer will be tried.
Goliath is a strong traveller who was more patiently ridden than usual in the Hardwicke Stakes, third behind Giavellotto and Kalpana. He has sometimes made the running, but seems very unlikely to do so on this occasion.
Masquerade Ball seems likely to be patiently ridden, as he was when running Calandagan close in the Japan Cup last autumn and when also runner-up at Sha Tin on his most recent start.
Trip/Ground/Draw
The ground is the most significant of the three. The principals are all proven at the trip and the field is not large enough for the draw to be much of a factor.
Given the prolonged hot, dry spell, it's no surprise that, even with plenty of watering, that the ground is officially Good to Firm and it may be that the times indicate ground on the firm side of that.
That might well be the reason for the absence of the surprise Coronation Cup winner Bay City Roller, who hasn't been declared. He won on firmish ground on his debut, but he was withdrawn from the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket in the spring on account of unsuitable ground when that track was officially Good to Firm.
Officially Benvenuto Cellini, has yet to race on going firmer than Good, though Timeform recorded the ground as Good to Firm for his wins at both Chester and the Curragh this year.
The other principals are proven under such conditions, Calandagan having a good record on such a surface. Minnie Hauk's best run came on softer going, but she has run creditably on firmer than good several times, including on this track.
Form
Calandagan's best performance of his career came at Ascot, over two furlongs shorter, when he got the better of Ombudsman in last autumn's Champion Stakes. He has a tremendous record overall, including winning this race last year, and he knows how to scrap if he needs to.
Calandagan showed that quality when leading in the final stride from Masquerade Ball in the Japan Cup after his win in the Champion Stakes. That rates as Masquerade Ball's best effort. He wasn't in quite the same form when chasing home Romantic Warrior in the QEII Cup at Sha Tin, when he allowed the winner first run.
Minnie Hauk was just touched off in the Arc last year. She hasn't matched that level in three runs this time round, though she ran with plenty of credit when second to Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales's Stakes.
Benvenuto Cellini is the least exposed runner in the field, though he needs to improve on his form in winning the Irish Derby if the other principals are at the top of their game.
Goliath won this race in 2024, but this looks a stronger renewal and his best form is a little way below the pick of the others.
Pedigree
Masquerade Ball has an unfamiliar pedigree to European eyes, though it is a very good one. He is by the short-lived Duramente, who was winner of the Japanese Guineas and Derby in his racing days and comes from a top Japanese family.
Masquerade Ball's dam is a daughter of the outstanding Deep Impact, from a good family. It's no surprise on breeding that Masquerade Ball looks at his most effective at a mile and a half.
Paddock
Calandagan isn't by any means the sort of quality horse that one might expect from his level of ability, but that hardly matters.
WATCH: Calandagan wins QIPCO Champion Stakes in fine style from Ombudsman
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Case For The Contenders
Calandagan: been there, done that; a top-class racehorse, seeking a seventh Group 1 success in the last 13 months, victory will take his earnings over the £10 million mark; hard to find a flaw.
Masquerade Ball: ran Calandagan mighty close in the Japan Cup after both had made rapid strides from off the pace early in the straight; didn't get a great ride in Hong Kong last time, but still ran well and the return to a mile and a half is sure to suit.
Benvenuto Cellini: needs to find a bit more tackling older rivals for the first time, but had something in hand when scoring in the Irish Derby and is easily the most open of these to improvement.
Minnie Hauk: will be suited by the return to a mile and a half, well as she ran behind Ombudsman last time; a reproduction of her run in the Arc would see her knocking on the door.
Kalpana: goes well at this track and has ideal conditions; runner-up last year, though clearly second best to Calandagan that day and needs to find a bit more to win.
Goliath: won this race in 2024, though this looks a stronger running; would have finished closer in the Hardwicke last time had his rider not lost an iron when challenging.
Lambourn: won the 2025 Derby and gave weight and a beating to Bay City Roller in the Huxley at Chester; flopped in the Coronation Cup and was used as a pacemaker in the Hardwicke, so may well fill the same role again.
More on the King George
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