Grand National Tips: How to find the Randox Grand National winner at Aintree

Find the Randox Grand National winner, they say. How do you do it, they ask.

Well, I don't, would be the obvious answer. Not the majority of the time anyway, but like I keep trying to inform members of the under-10s girls’ football side I assist with in my spare time, you’ll spend 85% of a match without the ball at your feet, so do try and have some fun just running about a bit as well as scoring the goals.

It’s the thrill of the chase that makes it, after all. I like to think they’ll manage to deduce that for themselves over time.

Granted, Noble Yeats did get one over the line at a rewarding price for the few of us who took a punt on an amateur-ridden seven-year-old novice trained by a genius a few years ago but, from a personal point of view, it had been a while between drinks.

There’s definitely some database attached to an ancient Betdaq account somewhere out in the ether which shows that I was technically responsible for backing Mon Mome at ludicrous odds shortly after a close family member shouted ‘Venetia Williams!!’ at me while the horses circled down at the start in 2009. But other than him I honestly reckon we’re going back to Monty’s Pass, Barry Geraghty and Jimmy Mangan for the last time I was properly celebrating a National winner.

I’d only just become a punter, legally, at that point so it’s not exactly one I was dining out on for long either.

You’re understandably beginning to wonder why I’ve been asked to underline the key clues to Saturday’s Aintree highlight, given such a chequered historical association with the race, but like all good teams on the back of a 15-1 shellacking, I’ve hit the reset button, taken stock of where I’ve been going wrong all this time, and feel refreshed and reinvigorated ahead of the next big challenge.

“Don’t let this slip, we go again,” in the words of one famous Scouser. And without wishing to end up in a bear-crawling mess of embarrassment on Merseyside, I’m quietly confident finding the Grand National winner should be much easier than it used to be. You just have to focus on the past two editions – following on from the latest modifications and reduction in field size from 40 to 34 runners – for an elementary understanding of what’s required these days.

WATCH: Willie and Patrick Mullins JockeyBox - What does it take to win the Grand National?

Low and slick over big and bold

For starters, an elaborate, bold jumping technique is no longer a prerequisite. Going a step beyond that, it has been argued that those individuals who spend a long time in the air, and expend more energy in getting from one side of an obstacle to another, are now seemingly at a disadvantage compared to the slightly lower jumpers who can often be smaller in stature and even brush through the odd fence.

Looking for an economical, ground-saving trip around the inside is now a realistic option, which certainly hasn’t always been the case.

The Chair, jumped only once on the first circuit, is the most imposing lump of birch at 5ft 2”, while after the latest round of remodelling, the famed Becher’s Brook – named after Captain Martin Becher who is said to have sought refuge semi-submerged in the water on the landing side of the ditch after being unseated from his mount, Conrad, in the very first edition of the race in 1839 – now stands at a mere 4ft 10”. That’s the height of one Danny DeVito, or Barbara Windsor, if you’d prefer.

There are actually eight larger obstacles than Becher’s/DeVito on the course, most of which are jumped twice during the National.

Only three horses officially fell last year, just one unseated and another was brought down, while there wasn’t a single faller in 2024. Four did unship their riders that year, but these numbers are way down on the previously expected non-completion rates on account of the fences (plenty of horses are still pulled-up when their chances are gone).

Like it or not, the world’s greatest steeplechase isn’t the jumping test it used to be, which may be welcome news for fans of nominative irony and the clumsy Jagwar, but is unlikely to play to the strengths of Mr Vango, very much from the old skool of steeplechasing.

There are other more nuanced cases to weigh up, such as Perceval Legallois, who had fallen a couple of times earlier in his career and is back for another shot at the National having last April come down at Valentine’s Brook (5ft exactly, see witchy songstress Ariana Grande). Perceval Legallois was just 10/1 that day and is arguably over-priced this time based purely on his best efforts, but he comes with obvious risks attached – even in a modern-day form of the Aintree game.

Stamina evidently remains a crucial asset, the extended four and a quarter-mile trip not one for shrinking violets. Nick Rockett had won the Thyestes Handicap Chase (3m1f) at Gowran Park and the Bobbyjo Chase (3m2f), while I Am Maximus also won the Bobbyjo having landed the previous season’s Irish Grand National (3m5f).

So, while the overall quality of National participants continues to gradually creep up, alongside the fences getting that bit daintier, it’s not like we as punters ought to be pivoting towards horses with more natural speed than staying power. A balanced blend of those two attributes is surely the sweet spot, which brings us neatly onto the one thing I think we can all agree on, which is class.

Class remains key

No scrimping when it comes to quality, this should help us all narrow down the suspects.

Let’s not forget the fact that I Am Maximus had capitalised on a quirk in the system to win the Grade 1 Drinmore on the final day with his novice status intact at the beginning of the 2023/24 campaign, while Nick Rockett had won a Grade 2 novice hurdle in his youth before landing the Grade 3 Thyestes and Grade 3 Bobbyjo en route to glory last April.

Gone are the days of the staying handicap specialists lifting this particular staying handicap prize – they no longer make the cut if truth be told – and, as much as I respect the raw talent of the aforementioned Jagwar, if you don’t have Graded-race form in the book then your name’s not on the list as far as I’m concerned.

Grade 1 form is obviously preferable and, sadly for anyone looking to produce the red pen and cross off a few no-hopers, there’s no shortage of that kicking around this year, from five-time G1 winner Gerri Colombe, through to 2024 King George VI Chase hero Banbridge, a former Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase winner Lecky Watson and last month's fourth Oscars Brother, plus the past two Mildmay Novices’ Chase runners-up, Iroko and Jordans.

Spillane’s Tower saw off Monty’s Star and Three Card Brag in the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown a couple of seasons back, while Champ Kiely had Stellar Story and Gorgeous Tom well behind when winning the same race last year.

Grangeclare West was runner-up to Galopin Des Champs, no less, in the 2025 Irish Gold Cup and Haiti Couleurs, winner of the Irish Grand National and Welsh Grand National, was sent off just 6/1 for last month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Unhelpfully, there appears to be stamina and class just about everywhere you look.

Data, names, colours and race replays are all flashing around in the mind, and I’ve yet to even mention Panic Attack.

Tell us all how to find the Randox Grand National winner, they said. Keep it brief, like one of Sherlock’s quick-fire character assassinations, they failed to add.

In that case, I might have suggested looking for (deep breath, increase tempo) the Willie Mullins-trained eight-year-olds with 10 or fewer chase starts to their name, who have been kept busy all season, and had their final prep run in the Bobbjo Chase. Ignore falls/previous jumping frailties, pay no attention to jockey bookings and don’t be put off by a big price.

Which I suppose does leave us with just two.

They may moved the goalposts slightly when it comes to this race in recent years but still, it’s the thrill of the chase that makes it, after all.

More Grand National features and previews

• The best Grand National performances on Timeform ratings
• Grand National fences: How they've shaped the race
• JockeyBox: Willie and Patrick Mullins reflections
• Simon Holt: The story of Spanish Steps
• John Ingles: Remembering Red Marauder's remarkable win in the mud
• Who are the main British hopes?
• 2026 Grand National preview podcast
• Dan Skelton: My Aintree squad

More from Sporting Life

• Free bets
• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.