Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Ripon and Newbury on Saturday

By Matt Brocklebank

15:00 · SAT August 13, 2022

Our expert is having a good 2022 and has a couple of value selections for this weekend as he looks to build on last Saturday's profits.

Value Bet tips: Saturday August 13

1pt win Snash in 2.50 Ripon at 10/1 (General)

1pt win Able Kane in 3.00 Newbury at 12/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | ITV7

Snash and grab from off the pace in St Wilfrid

The calm before the Ebor Festival storm – and there is a good chance of rain at York early next week, incidentally – but the William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap remains an attractive betting heat despite not quite filling.

Ripon is a fair track on the whole but it’s not for every horse and I can definitely overlook market leader Blackrod on his course debut and first start for new trainer Ed Bethell.

He’s got a very sound form chance off a mark of 99 based on what we’ve seen of the lightly-raced four-year-old so far this season but he’s surely a happier colt with at least a bit of ease in the ground (natural irrigation, ideally) and he’s also drawn in stall one which has the potential to see him marooned towards the middle of the track – or running in a smaller group on the far side of the course - with the stalls positioned on the stands’ side rail as usual.

There is some early pace in the single-figure numbers, admittedly, with Hyperfocus and Al Simmo breaking from seven and eight respectively, but Justanotherbottle (10) and Emperor Spirit (13) are also likely to help blaze the trail and a higher draw is preferred on this occasion.

The aforementioned Emperor Spirit isn’t easy to rule out by any means. He was campaigned up to a mile when trained by the Gosdens and has found his forte for Archie Watson since being dropped right back in trip.

He can be excused the last run at Chelmsford as he was lit up by racing wide on his own from stall 12, leaving himself with nothing left when it mattered most, and he’s better judged on previous turf efforts including a solid second to the reopposing Justanotherbottle (Kevin Ryan’s horse is 1lb better off on Saturday) at this venue.

However, SNASH is another unexposed stable switcher, having joined Tim Easterby from Charlie Hills at the start of the current campaign.

He’s taken a while to rekindle his spark (ran in the G2 Superlative Stakes as a two-year-old) but his official rating dropping sharply has helped and it appears the big difference has come since being fitted with cheekpieces (retained) on his last three outings.

A six-furlong win over Pendleton was followed by a decent effort when fourth in a good York handicap over seven in early-July, and he was back in the groove at Ayr last time when returned to this trip – his career record over six furlongs alone now reads 61110711.

The recent Trial success and entry in the Ayr Gold Cup gives a pretty good indication as to the way connections must be thinking but this looks a great opportunity en route to that even more valuable prize as he’s only gone back up another 3lb in the weights for winning.

That means he’s still 8lb lower than when leaving his previous yard and it just looks another masterful piece of training from Easterby, who has won two of the past five runnings of the Great St Wilfrid.

Snash typically comes from off the pace so stall 14 right next to the free-going Emperor Spirit is ideal, and he rates the bet of the weekend.

Kane to score at rewarding price

The field sizes at Newbury aren’t a great deal better than Newmarket, where there’s a pretty pitiful turnout, but at least the Berkshire course has a 10-runner feature in the shape of the BetVictor Hungerford Stakes.

There must have been a temptation to hang on for York’s hugely valuable Sky Bet City Of York Stakes next Saturday for a few of these but Richard Hannon doesn’t waste an opportunity to go for glory at his local track (Salisbury is slightly closer to East Everleigh for the more discerning reader).

He runs both Chindit and course specialist Happy Romance, the latter looking the bet when around 14/1 at the start of the week.

She’s shortened up and is about the right price at 8s, while the same applies to Chris Wall’s Double Or Bubble, who is extremely effective from off the pace at Newmarket (both tracks) but has never been to Newbury before and isn’t guaranteed to replicate her July Cup form from last month.

I wouldn’t be too quick to put anyone off the third filly in the Hungerford field, Primo Bacio, who has clearly been hard to train, and not the easiest to ride either, over the past couple of years.

One of her most eyecatching performances came over this course and distance when unlucky not to go very close in Alcohol Free’s Fred Darling last spring and although without success since a subsequent York win at the Dante Festival, this year’s Royal Ascot third behind Saffron Beach was a lot more encouraging.

She wasn’t suited by a five-runner Falmouth after that, while three of the four fillies who finished ahead of her at Goodwood last time were three-year-olds in receipt of weight.

Ed Walker’s charge could go well at a big price if there’s a mad gallop on, but instead I’ll back outsider of the field ABLE KANE to win the Play Pick 6 At BetVictor Handicap over seven furlongs.

He’s not yet fully exposed over seven furlongs and, having won two of his five career starts at the trip, it clearly suits him well.

He wasn’t suited by a return to six when disappointing under a penalty at Nottingham on his penultimate start and we can obviously overlook the subsequent Stewards’ Cup effort when restless and rearing in the stalls before the start (jockey briefly lost an iron).

He’s probably not got much in hand from a mark of 93 but the relatively small field could give him a tactical advantage as he tends to be on the sharp end, or close to the pace at the very least.

The removal of the tongue-tie he’s worn on his last four starts could be an interesting angle as well. It’s not that a huge amount of improvement should be expected but he’s clearly a bit of a tricky customer to keep sweet and the small equipment tweak has worked a few times in the past, Able Kane winning in a first-time visor in 2020, winning again at Doncaster last September when the visor was eventually removed, and going really close at Windsor this summer when the blinkers tried at Haydock the time before had been taken off.

It’s only a minor one but taking off the tongue-tie might help freshen him up again after the negative Goodwood experience, and at a general 12/1 I think he’s worth an interest on a quiet Saturday.

Published at 1500 BST on 12/08/22

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