Andrew Asquith looks ahead to Newbury this weekend in his latest ante-post column and has selected two bets.
Weekend View: Saturday May 17
1pt win Saddadd in 2.00 Newbury at 8/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
2pts win Notable Speech in 2.35 Newbury at 9/2 (Bet365, William Hill, 888sport)
Andrew Asquith's full tipping record can be found here
The weather continues to be glorious for the time of year and racecourses are watering heavily due to the lack of rain. Conditions are set to be fast again at Newbury this weekend, with the clerk of the course anticipating good to firm ground on the day – it’s currently described as good to firm, good in places, with up to 12mm of water going on today.
It has to be said that only 14 entries for the Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap, usually one of the, if not the strongest, middle-distance handicaps for three-year-olds all season, is bitterly disappointing.
Likely ground conditions have perhaps had an adverse effect, but it doesn’t look a vintage renewal, that’s for sure. Archivist heads the betting having caught the eye on his first start for William Haggas at Nottingham, and he does look potentially well treated from a mark of 86 now making his handicap debut, while he is also bred to progress further over this longer trip.
It's quite a congested betting market in behind, Nebras and Light As Air, whose latest form is working out well, priced similarly in places, but the one I like is the Roger Varian-trained SADDADD.
He was well supported and looked a good prospect when making a winning debut over a mile at Southwell in December, overcoming some inexperience to be well on top at the finish, coming through with a powerful run on the stand-side rail to beat a Simon & Ed Crisford newcomer who has gone on to win a valuable event at Meydan since and also be placed in Group 3 company.
I didn’t mind his next run under a penalty at Kempton 11 weeks later, either, held up and still last entering the straight, but staying on well enough in the closing stages to finish third to the promising Opera Ballo in a race which Charlie Appleby has an excellent record, winning it with Notable Speech 12 months earlier.
Saddadd still looked a work in progress that day to me, while also leaving the impression he was ready for a step up in trip, and he duly progressed further when runner-up to another promising sort over this course and distance last month.
It was just the third running of that valuable novice event, but it again looks strong form, the winner looking destined for Group 1 company (he was cut to 20/1 for the Derby afterwards but has seemingly had a setback as he holds no entries), and Saddadd travelled into that contest like an above-average type.
He was also still in the Derby at the time, but Roger Varian said in a stable tour that the Newbury race would tell him if he is a Derby horse or will be more suited to something like this race. An opening mark of 95 may not be a gift, but he is a lightly-raced three-year-old, who possesses plenty of scope – he’s a well-made colt – and I’m sure he can take another step forward.
Roger Varian won this race in 2017 with Defoe, who was also making his handicap debut, and went on to win multiple times in pattern company, notably the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom, and I'm hoping Saddadd has that sort of potential given he's clearly well thought of by his top trainer.
While it may not be the best renewal of the London Gold Cup, you can say the total opposite about this year’s Boylesports Lockinge Stakes, chock-full of high-class sorts, and it will be very interesting to see how the mouth-watering rematch between Notable Speech and Rosallion transpires.
It would be folly to rule out Dancing Gemini and Tamfana, too, and I’d be of the opinion that David Menuisier’s filly can reverse Sandown form on slightly better terms, but for me, the horse who is overpriced is NOTABLE SPEECH.
He got the better of Rosallion in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket last season and, while he was behind him in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot next time, he clearly didn’t give his running on that occasion, and I’m in no way prepared to judge him too harshly on that run.
Notable Speech wasted no time confirming himself a high-class colt when winning the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood next time, Rosallion a late absentee due to a respiratory infection, but it was still a highly impressive display, once again showcasing his electric turn of foot to settle the race in a matter of strides once meeting the cutaway.
Softer ground probably didn’t suit him as well in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp after, Henry Longfellow who he’d beaten comfortably at Goodwood previously finishing in front of him, and I didn’t think he ran that badly on his final start in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at the end of a long year.
It is worth remembering that Notable Speech didn’t race as a juvenile, but started his three-year-old campaign in January of last year, and I think you have to give him credit to still be going strongly in November, especially considering the travel, too.
A sturdy, good-bodied colt, he has the potential to improve his form further this season, and a nice long break should have done him the world of good. Rosallion has been especially strong in the betting, but I’d have him and Notable Speech priced much closer in the betting, not only just on form, but the fact that the former must prove his well-being to some extent.
There is the potential for this to be steadily run, Prague and the lesser rated Storm Star potential pace angles, which means that Notable Speech’s turn of foot could prove vital should it turn tactical, while he’s unlikely to be ridden too patiently.
He loves fast ground and a straight mile at a flat track like Newbury should really play to his strengths. Charlie Appleby can do little wrong at present, either, operating at a 34% strike rate this year, and that jumps to 39% at the time of writing this month.
Preview posted at 1545 BST on 13/05/2025
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