Ben Linfoot answers the big questions heading into Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.
How good a race is it?
It looks good without being a vintage renewal. It’s great to see last year’s winner, Daryz, coming back for more instead of being retired to stud and the opposition is strong.
The winners of the Grand Prix de Paris, King George, Nassau Stakes, Betfred Oaks, Prix Niel, Coronation Cup, Irish Derby, Takarazuka Kinen, Grosser Preis von Baden and the Prix Vermeille are lining up to take him on, so you’re hard to please if you don’t think it looks up to scratch.
I suppose Daryz looks the only established superstar colt in there with the rest having to prove they are up to his level, but this looks just about as good as we could’ve hoped for this year - the last edition where geldings are barred.
What’s the weather doing and who will it suit?
Unusually for Paris at the time of year, it’s not doing much.
The ground on Tuesday was ‘Good’ after 2.5mm of rain on Monday and the forecast looks warm all week at around 23 degrees with the only rain on the horizon coming on Wednesday afternoon with around 7mm due to fall according to the worst of the forecasts.
All things point towards Good ground this weekend, no matter what Wednesday brings, and that will suit most of the field, particularly Maltese Cross who wouldn’t want it very soft, while Bay City Roller looks the most inconvenienced.
How important a factor is the draw?
We know low draws have dominated over a sustained period of time with stalls one, two and three filling the first three positions last year, so of course it’s important. You’re more likely to get a smoother passage and race on a tighter line than you would from out wide if you’re drawn towards the inside.
That’s not to say you can’t win from out wide, with Torquator Tasso winning from stall 12 in 2021, while Golden Horn won from stall 14 in 2015, but one was in heavy ground and the other was the subject of a Frankie Dettori masterclass, so those are the sort of factors you need in play. If you were able to pick your starting berth, you’d go low.
How significant would back-to-back wins for Daryz be?
Hugely significant. He would become the joint most successful horse in Arc history along with eight others who won the race twice and he would become the eighth horse to go back-to-back.
The last colt to win the race twice was Vincent O’Brien’s Alleged in 1978 and it was his second win, as an older horse against a new batch of three-year-olds, that was his finest hour, especially given he had to be nursed back to health after missing some high-profile midsummer engagements due to a virus.
Daryz has had a clean bill of health all year, but a second Arc, against a posse of talented three-year-olds, would seal the son of Sea The Stars’ legacy in a similar fashion.
The betting says Maltese Cross is the chief threat – is he?
Sea The Stars was one of the best winners of the Arc in the race’s history, particularly because it put the seal on a stunningly ambitious three-year-old campaign, and his progeny form the first two in the betting for Sunday’s Arc.
Because if it’s not Daryz again, it could be Maltese Cross, whose only defeat this season came at the hands of Christmas Day in the Betfred Derby on soft ground at Epsom where he still ran a huge race in second.
Since then he has pulled the Grand Prix de Paris out of the fire over the Arc course and distance at Longchamp and then looked even better again under a penalty in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur at York – a race the aforementioned Alleged won on the way to his first Arc win.
The York form took a few hits in the St Leger, though, and Maltese Cross’ price has probably been influenced by his status as the most high-profile three-year-old colt in the race, so I’d rather say he’s one of the chief threats without being as definitive as the current betting.
Which of the single-figure priced fillies pose the biggest danger?
It has to be Kalpana for me and I’d be surprised if she doesn’t usurp Maltese Cross from second favouritism.
Yes, last year’s seventh was a blot on her copybook, but she didn’t have an ideal preparation after being beaten at Kempton and a wide trip from stall 10 sealed her fate on the day. In fact, being beaten seven lengths after such adversity wasn’t a bad run.
Since then she has improved even on her very best form this season, following a wonderfully consistent campaign, one which has yielded the King George and the Yorkshire Oaks with her performance at Ascot in July, in particularly, showcasing her strengths.
What price would the gelding Calandagan be in here? I’d wager he’d be shorter than 7/1 and Kalpana brushed him aside by a length and a half at the end of July, so she has every chance of improving Juddmonte’s already rich history in the race.
Diamond Necklace and Thundering On are respected, but the former has never run over a mile and a half and the latter has to prove she is good enough after her Oaks form has taken a bit of a battering subsequently.
Who is your idea of the winner?
Granted a bit of luck with the draw, I think Kalpana can beat Daryz. The 3lb she gets from him means there is very little between them at all on their best form, if anything, and I think she’s had a better preparation than last year off a two-week longer break.
Finally, can any of the outsiders outrun their odds?
Friendly Soul is quite interesting for John & Thady Gosden after she accepted her free entry after winning the Vermeille – a race she won from the front on her first ever go at a mile and a half.
She won on Arc weekend two years ago in the Prix de l’Opera and she clearly likes being on the speed at this track, so I wouldn’t kick her out of calculations at 25/1.
I don’t know much about the Japanese challenger Meisho Tabaru, but I do know he beat two very good yardsticks in Croix Du Nord and Danon Decile in the Takarazuka Kinen, so he might be a little underestimated at 40/1 for a nation who continue their pursuit of winning the Arc for the first time. The ground has come right for the Japanese challenge for once and after further disappointment for Team Japan last year Meisho Tabaru might be flying under the radar a little bit more than usual.
I’m not sure either will be beating the twin threat of Daryz and Kalpana, though.
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