Ian Ogg looks ahead to Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and is keen to explore some decent-looking German Group 1 form.
Market forces
One by one they fell away until only Daryz was left.
That's over-egging the pudding but the reigning champion is a general 7/4 after looking to be back to his imperious best in the Prix Foy while so many of his challengers have fluffed their lines.
Bay City Roller hasn't but was brushed aside in the trial and would need softer ground to close the gap - the current forecasts suggest he's out of luck and the general 16/1 (25s in a place) feels very much on the cautious side.
Second favourite Maltese Cross has enjoyed a fine season, winning four of his five starts with the sole defeat coming when second to Christmas Day in the Epsom Derby and, for some, therein lies the problem. The horses he has beaten - and the one he's been beaten by - haven't done all that much for the form and that has been used as a stick to beat him with. That's fair. Questions should be asked.
Aidan O'Brien's revelation during Irish Champions Weekend that some of the Ballydoyle string were suffering with a 'low-grade infection' could certainly explain away some of the performances we've witnessed over the last few months. The shortest priced Ballydoyle runners are last year's runner-up Minnie Hauk who has had a disappointing season (although you could argue she could be on the way back after a more promising run last time) and Diamond Necklace who hasn't been seen since a surprising loss to Aventure.
She could bounce back from that as Thundering On did so impressively in the Blandford Stakes, while there is Kalpana who showed grit and determination in winning the Yorkshire Oaks and she should have underfoot conditions in her favour if she attempts to improve on last year's seventh.
Going back-to-back
Enable and Treve won back-to-back renewals of the Arc but the last colt to do so was Alleged in 1977 and 1978.
There are numerous contributory factors but some top-class horses have tried and failed and you are, naturally, being asked to take a short price about Daryz who had a perfect draw in stall 2 when prevailing in 2025. The draw has to be a factor in considerations at this stage - Torquator Tasso and Found broke from 12, Ace Impact from 8 and the other seven winners from 6 or lower. If the field holds up and Daryz draws 15, he should be a bigger price on the day.
I nailed my colours to Maltese Cross' mast in the Derby, in no small part to the record of William Haggas' contenders in that particular Classic. He ran a huge race on ground he didn't like and has done an awful lot right since; extricating himself from a tricky position at ParisLongchamp - another tick - in the Grand Prix de Paris before winning the Great Voltigeur under a penalty.
He doesn't seem to have captured the public's imagination in the way some do - Economics for example - and that puzzles me but he doesn't dazzle in the way that Daryz does and everyone loves a show pony! Maltese Cross isn't quite the antithesis of that but he doesn't mind getting down and dirty and he has a turn of foot. I like him but not at 5/1 ante-post.
Kalpana is another gritty performer and some of my colleagues are sweet on Andrew Balding's mare but I can't get away from the feeling that she would be better served running at Ascot on Champions Day. If she can replicate her prominent run-style that has served her so well at the Berkshire venue that would be a positive but she couldn't do that last year from a draw in 10 and if she wins it will be one where I shrug and admit I was wrong.
Thundering On, in contrast, does have something of the wow factor about her. The way she travels so easily into contention and then kicks at the finish, too; she can look special. But if you're knocking the Derby form, you've got to knock the Oaks form and she will need luck in a large field under waiting tactics.
Jump on the German bandwagon
The Wertheimer Brothers still have five entered and they include Sosie who has represented them with distinction in the last two renewals. Fourth and favourite behind Bluestocking in 2024 and third 12 months ago - both run on ground officially described as 'very soft' - his level has been established.
However, only two smart three-year-olds in Daryz and Minnie Hauk finished in front of him last season and if you're of the view that this year's classic crop lack a standout candidate - either generally or due to other factors like illness - then his established level puts him in the frame and he's widely available at 50/1.
He won the Hong Kong Vase in December and took third behind Romantic Warrior at Sha Tin in April - both on quicker ground - so it's perhaps no surprise that he's had just the one run since when a well beaten third behind Daryz over an inadequate trip in May. If Andre and Lavinia Fabre deem Sosie ready to line-up for a third time, you can be sure he'll be ready to roll and he's proved he's good enough to trouble the judge.
He beat Giavellotto in Sha Tin and Kalpana's Ascot conqueror and last year's Arc fourth was below that level in a Baden Baden Group 1 last time, won by Saddadd.
German Group 1 races have enjoyed plenty of headlines lately courtesy of Tiffany and Hotazhell and Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Irish Champion Stakes, and that's reason enough not to dismiss Saddadd's half-length defeat of the Francis Graffard-trained Parachutiste out of hand.
The bare form isn't good enough and that is why Saddadd is a widely available 33/1 but there are reasons to believe he hasn't reached his ceiling yet. The Pinatubo colt came through the handicap ranks but won both races in that sphere, including Newbury's London Gold Cup that has been the launchpad for numerous pattern race performers.
First G1 win for SADDADD! 💛@varianstable’s charge wins the G1 Grosser Preis Von Baden at Baden-Baden 🇩🇪
— World Horse Racing (@WHR) September 6, 2026
pic.twitter.com/vpn9VrhyiH
He had Group 1 entries last season but wasn't asked to step up to that grade until the Tattersalls Gold Cup this May when third behind half-brother Almaqam and Bay City Roller, coming from further back than that pair and shaping as though the experience of racing at that level was needed.
Subsequently outpaced and well held in the Eclipse when the 4/1 joint-second favourite, it was no surprise to see him stepped up to 12 furlongs for the first time in Germany and he saw the trip out well, beating a strong stayer and some decent yardsticks on slower ground that he encountered at Sandown.
Conditions may be faster than usual this autumn but should be kinder than the quick ground of July which will suit and Saddadd has untapped potential both generally and over 12 furlongs; he's a horse on the up that could put himself in the argument and, as such, makes most appeal at the prices at this stage.
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