Cheltenham November Meeting Saturday & Sunday: Ben Linfoot answers the big questions
Ben Linfoot answers the big questions surrounding the feature action at Cheltenham this weekend, from the Triumph and Sky Bet Supreme trials to the big handicaps.
How good is the Triumph trial as a Triumph trial?
Katarino, Katchit and Defi Du Seuil are the three horses that have won both races but Irish dominance in the big one means the significance of this race is usually limited.
It’s frequently left to the English big guns to fight this out with Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs winning it 12 times between them with only Katarino and Defi Du Seuil following up in March out of that particular dozen.
Nicholls has the likely favourite this year in Hell Red, a horse that won by 12 lengths on his British debut at Chepstow last time out, while David Pipe has the other interesting home-trained hope in Adagio.
He was a very taking winner at Warwick despite blundering at the last, but both of those horses have something to find with Gordon Elliott’s Duffle Coat.
Possibly named after Nigel Twiston-Davies’ fashion choices, Duffle Coat won the Wensleydale by eight lengths at Wetherby and he’ll bid to become the first Irish-trained winner of this race since John Queally’s Ai Eile won it in 2003.
Can Fusil Raffles lay down an Arkle marker?
Well, he runs in the Arkle trial, even though it’s not called that anymore, and last season Put The Kettle On won this race before going onto Arkle glory at the Festival.
He’s never raced beyond two miles in England and he won a Cheltenham two-mile novice chase on his last outing in a time over a second quicker than Rouge Vif, who was carrying the same weight on the same day over the same distance.
It all sounds very Arkley, doesn’t it, but the giant shadow of stablemate Shishkin in the antepost market just makes you wonder if Nicky Henderson will try and turn Fusil Raffles into a Marsh Chase horse come the spring.
It’s a case of watch this space, but if he can defy a penalty and win this Grade 2 impressively you would think he’ll stick to two miles, in the short term at least.
It won’t be easy for him on Saturday, though, not least because Eldorado Allen looks a fierce opponent after an impressive chasing debut at Newton Abbot last time and if Saturday’s forecast rain hits the track it won’t bother Colin Tizzard’s charge one bit.
Fusil Raffles, however, could do with the rain staying away.
Who holds the key to the Paddy Power Gold Cup?
It looks a fabulous renewal of the great race and there are some serious horses in the top half of the handicap with Simply The Betts, Mister Fisher, Al Dancer and Slate House standing out as those that could grow out of handicaps this campaign.
They’ve all been well found in the market and the key horse from a tactical point of view could well be Siruh Du Lac, who deserves to be mentioned with the above quartet on his best form – which was his Brown Advisory win at the Festival in 2019.
He’s had wind surgery and switched stables to David Pipe’s from Nick Williams’ since his fall in the same race at this year’s Festival, but if he’s fit and firing he’s the one that can get them all at it with a good round of jumping on the front end.
There’s only one bet in the race for me, though, and that’s Coole Cody at 20/1.
A winner of a handicap hurdle at this meeting three years ago off 136, he’s been in great form for new trainer Evan Williams in novice chases and looks well treated on two bits of recent fencing form from his perch of 137.
Two runs ago he beat Irish Prophecy by 12 lengths at Newton Abbot and that horse won a Taunton handicap off 135 on Thursday, while last time, at Cheltenham, Coole Cody ran Southfield Stone to within a length-and-a-half off levels, with Paul Nicholls’ horse running well against Protektorat at the same track on Friday.
Coole Cody won’t mind the forecast rain and he continues to fly under the radar, but he’s the one horse at the bottom of the weights who could put it up to the leading lights on Saturday.
Who can make a fizz in the Shloer?
Here’s a conundrum.
Two of the standout form horses, Defi Du Seuil and Put The Kettle On, represent yards that have just been struggling for winners, with Philip Hobbs operating at under 10% for the last three months and Henry De Bromhead having had just one winner from his last 30 runners.
It’s a niggle.
Forest Bihan looks up against it on these terms, but the other three, Rouge Vif, Riders Onthe Storm and Duc Des Genievres are dead interesting and any of them could put it up to the fancied duo.
Rouge Vif looked in great nick in handicap company last time and tries to make the step up here, while Riders Onthe Storm finally gets the chance to prove he’s all speed as he drops back to two miles for the first time since he won a novice chase at Punchestown for Tom Taaffe.
And then there’s Duc Des Genievres who gets the full treatment.
The former Arkle winner largely went off the boil last season, but he’s made the switch from Willie Mullins’ to Paul Nicholls, has had wind surgery and a first-time hood has been applied for good measure as well.
He gets weight from Defi Du Seuil, Riders Onthe Storm and Rouge Vif, too, so is a fascinating contender in a race where we should learn plenty.
Will Third Time Lucki advertise the Champion Bumper form?
We haven’t seen the first two from the Champion Bumper yet, Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It, so it’s been left to the also-rans to boost the form of the race and they’ve been doing okay.
The third Queens Brook won at odds of 2/7 last month while Eskylane (5th), Ocean Wind (6th), One True King (10th), Ask A Honey Bee (13th), Adrimel (16th), Panic Attack (18th) and Linelee King (22nd) have all won races, too.
Dan Skelton’s Third Time Lucki was fourth in the Champion Bumper and he’s won his two hurdle races subsequently, both times at prohibitive odds as he outclassed the opposition at Uttoxeter and Wetherby.
They were little more taxing than penalty kicks, but key in his education nevertheless now he steps up in grade for the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle on Sunday.
He’s not the form pick in this race, either Courtandbold or even For Pleasure deserve that moniker, but there’s no doubt he’s the horse with most potential and anyone who had a runner in the Champion Bumper will be keeping a keen eye on his performance.
Are you for or against Greatwood Hurdle favourite Proschema?
It’s that man Skelton again and I’m finding him hard to oppose here.
Proschema travelled so well at Wetherby when second last time that he just looks very well handicapped nudged up 3lb and the winner, Anemoi, has suggested that wasn’t a bad performance at all with his subsequent win off 5lb higher over fences at Chepstow.
That Wetherby run was his first for 322 days, so there looks more to come from him in a race that his trainer won back in 2016 with North Hill Harvey.
The one niggle is that he could be a bit of a hostage to fortune in a big field, as it’s unlikely he’ll be ridden prominently, but it’s really not enough of a worry to be confident about laying him at 11/2 as he does look like the one that they all have to beat.
Saturday Racecards & Free Video Form
- 12:30 - JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle
- 13:05 - South West Syndicate Handicap Chase
- 13:40 - From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase
- 14:15 - Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase
- 14:50 - Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle
- 15:25 - Paddy Power First Millionaire Qualifier Intermediate Handicap Hurdle
- 15:55 - Karndean Designflooring Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race
Sunday Racecards & Free Video Form
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