Our form expert had 11/2 and 12/1 winners at the Berkshire Winter Million on Friday and Saturday and he has three tips for Sunday's ITV4 action.
The Verdict: Sunday January 18
2pts win Doyen Quest in 13:20 Windsor at 6/1 (General)
1pt win Pretending in 14:05 Fakenham at 8/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Planned Paradise in 15:35 Windsor at 9/1 (General)
Paradise plan to come to fruition
The Berkshire Winter Million concludes at Windsor on Sunday and it could be a case of déjà vu in the final race of the ITV4 coverage, the Fitzdares Personal Betting Service Stayers Handicap Chase over the marathon trip of an extended 3m4f.
Last year PLANNED PARADISE won the race impressively under Jack Tudor for Christian Williams and the same team turn up to defend their crown with the same horse who gets to run off a 7lb lower mark.
Williams has done remarkably well to get the defending champion so well handicapped in his bid for a repeat win and he has notably dropped 10lb in the weights this season after four runs including his last two over an unsuitable 2m4f.
All four of the runs have come under a 7lb claiming jockey, too, but with Tudor back in the saddle a much better performance is expected and Williams is a dab hand with this type of staying handicap chaser.
The cheekpieces return, as well, and while they have been hit and miss for him in the past they have improved his performance on more than one occasion, and he did race noticeably lazily at Ludlow last time.
With the course and conditions absolutely perfect for him, and given he is a horse that has a history of pulling a win out of the bag from nowhere, he looks the bet from the very bottom of the weights.
The Verdict: Backed PLANNED PARADISE in the 15.35 Windsor
Quest looks best for team Skelton
Earlier on at Windsor, Dan Skelton can strike with DOYEN QUEST in the rearranged Grade 2 LSL Racing Auctions Hampton Novices’ Chase that has been saved from Warwick.
Skelton likely wishes Warwick had survived as Doyen Quest is two from two at his local track but the sharp nature of Windsor should suit this front-runner who jumps his fences very well.
He has quickly established a good record over fences in five runs and he looked better than ever at Exeter in the Silver Bowl before Gary and Josh Moore’s Salver beat him by 12 lengths in the Grade 2 Betfair Esher Novices’ Chase at Sandown last time.
That explains why Salver is 2/1 on Sunday and Doyen Quest is 6/1, but a tired mistake at the last from Skelton’s horse seriously exaggerated the winning distance there and off 5lb better terms I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reverse the form on this different track.
On top of that, Salver has had a tough race in Grade 1 company since then when beaten by Kitzbuhel in the Kauto Star at Kempton and the Moores reaching for the cheekpieces looks like an attempt to sharpen up his jumping early on.
That’s a plan that’s not guaranteed to work out and if Doyen Quest gets away in a good rhythm under Harry Skelton he might prove tough to reel in this time.
The Verdict: Back DOYEN QUEST in the 13.20 Windsor
Pretending to improve at Fakenham
Finally, Lucy Wadham’s PRETENDING can bounce back to winning form in the Fakenham Skips Mares’ Handicap Hurdle at Fakenham, where two races form part of the ITV coverage.
The seven-year-old mare hasn’t been at her best in two starts this campaign but she has been outpaced on better ground in higher company at Kempton and Cheltenham and she can improve on easier conditions back down in class.
Last year she finished fourth in this race off a 2lb higher mark after leading three out and she ran well, just getting outpaced late on and not beaten far.
Softer ground 12 months out can help her chances on this sharp track and she’s been given an opportunity dropped to her last winning mark amongst company she has a class edge over on her best form.
Wadham isn’t having her best season, but this relatively local track rarely lets the Newmarket handler down as her superb 26% strike-rate at Fakenham (also +£69.27 to £1 level stakes at SP) suggests.
The Verdict: Back PRETENDING in the 14.05 Fakenham
Preview posted at 15:05 GMT on 17/01/26
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