Our form expert had a glorious Goodwood tipping Rhoscolyn (12/1) Jm Jungle (33/1) and Waardah (13/2) and he's back to preview York's Sky Bet Ebor Festival with four tips on day one.
The Verdict: Wednesday August 20
1pt e.w Bergerac in 1.50 York at 16/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5, 14/1 General)
1pt win Gewan in 2.25 York at 14/1 (bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt win Arabian Force in 3.00 York at 10/1 (BetVictor, Coral)
1pt win See The Fire in 3.35 York at 15/2 (bet365, 7/1 BetVictor, Paddy Power)
Fire to burn up the Knavesmire again
Pacemakers, and sometimes the lack of, have been a topic of conversation throughout the Flat season and Birr Castle might just be the most important runner in Wednesday’s Juddmonte International at York.
The 150/1 winner of the Sussex Stakes, Qirat, has dominated the pacemaker chat but the lack of a bunny in the Coral-Eclipse might well have done for Ombudsman at Sandown and the Gosdens and Godolphin have attempted to rectify matters with Andre Fabre’s Birr Castle parachuted in to set the pace.
It might be a good job he’s in there, as well, as there doesn’t look to be a natural frontrunner amongst the rest of them and both Ombudsman and Danon Decile would likely be most vulnerable if this was run at a crawl.
Rab Havlin is the man entrusted to get the fractions right on the front end on Birr Castle and if he does Ombudsman could well replicate his Royal Ascot performance, although I’m not absolutely convinced York will be his track and this is the first ever time he’s raced going left-handed.
Indeed, York form is thin on the ground in the race, but Andrew Balding’s SEE THE FIRE is two from two here and, like her dam Arabian Queen, who won this race a decade ago, she looks to operate on a different level whenever she comes to York.
She has got the gears for trips shorter than the mile and a quarter, as she showed when coming from the rear to land the 1m1f Strensall Stakes at this track at this meeting 12 months ago, while she bettered that effort with an outstanding performance in the Middleton here in May.
Bluestocking won the Middleton before landing the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last year and the Group 2 contest for fillies might just serve as the perfect platform to launch another high-profile top-level winner in See The Fire.
A little unlucky not to finish closer to the front two in the Prince Of Wales’s after being forced to wait for room, she ran well at a track that doesn’t play to her strengths at Royal Ascot and then everything went wrong in the Nassau at Goodwood.
The heavens opening and the flag start conspired against her and she quickly had a mountain to climb, but she travelled into the race with her customary verve which signalled she’s ready to run to her best again when things fall in her favour.
Fast ground on the Knavesmire is where she’s happiest and, however this is run, it’ll likely take a mighty good performance to sink her when she engages into top gear on the run for home under Oisin Murphy.
The Verdict: Back SEE THE FIRE in the 3.35 York
Back Gewan to sink Acomb big guns
Godolphin and Ballydoyle will have already gone head-to-head before the Juddmonte International when Distant Storm and Italy do battle in the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes, but Balding could spoil that party as well with GEWAN.
The key here is the potential improvement of the selection as he will have learnt an enormous amount at Newbury where he ran green in the closing stages but still ran out a ready winner under Billy Loughnane.
It was a really impressive debut win, in a race that is working out well, for a yard that doesn’t specialise in juvenile debutant winners and having been sent off at 9/1 it’s fair to say he probably ran a great deal above expectations.
He ran to a very similar level as the same stable’s Chaldean did in the same Newbury race three years ago and that horse came and landed the Acomb at odds of 7/2 with Ryan Moore riding in the colours of Juddmonte.
The grey son of Night Of Thunder seems to be flying under the radar for less sparkly connections on Wednesday, and PJ McDonald takes the ride with Oisin Murphy claimed by new retainer Imad Alsagar for May Angel.
That’s of no concern, though, as McDonald has struck up a very fruitful partnership with Balding in recent years, his record for the trainer in 2025 now reading a very healthy 16 wins from 54 runners at 30%.
He looks to have landed on another one with a fine chance in Gewan, who looks vastly underrated at 14/1 or any double-figure prices.
The Verdict: Back GEWAN in the 2.25 York
Feel the Force in the Voltigeur
Lambourn is odds-on for the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes after his Derby and Irish Derby successes but I’m gagging to take him on in a small field on a speed track on the fastest ground he’s ever encountered.
He finds plenty and class could see him through, but at the prices there has to be a chance he gets outpaced under a penalty in what will probably serve as a tee-up race for his autumn assignments.
Carmers is tempting after his Queen’s Vase win has worked out so well, but he too could be vulnerable dropping back in trip and I’d rather side with William Haggas’ ARABIAN FORCE at 10/1.
He looks right at home on fast ground and he slammed dual subsequent winner Gladius by five lengths at Salisbury in May, before he stayed on well for seventh in the Hampton Court over 1m2f at Royal Ascot, shaping as though he needed further.
Last time he went another furlong in the 1m3f Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton, a race won by Kalpana last year, and he put in a career-best to finish a nose second to Nahraan after not getting the cleanest of runs through.
Once in the clear he flew home and was in front 10 yards after the line, so further improvement is expected now he steps up to 1m4f and he might just have the gears to get the strong stayers like Lambourn and Carmers in trouble.
The Verdict: Back ARABIAN FORCE in the 3.00 York
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Bergerac to crack York opener
Finally, the handicaps look as tricky as ever but Kevin Ryan’s BERGERAC can go well again in the opening Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap over five-and-a-half furlongs.
Ryan has plenty of previous at this specialist distance including in this race with this horse three years ago when he won from a low draw off a handicap mark of 93.
He runs off an identical rating here and he looks as good as he ever did, Ryan typically keeping an older sprinter sweet as he so often does with this type of horse.
His runs at York and Hamilton this season are up there with his very best efforts, and fast ground and five-and-a-half furlongs on the Knavesmire look perfect for him in his current fettle.
Last year he finished sixth in this race behind Jm Jungle, but he was drawn out of it in stall 19 and did remarkably well to finish as close as he did.
This time around the draw has been much kinder with him getting stall nine and he’s got bags of pace around him with Tatterstall and Jordan Electrics two that have the early pace to give him a nice tow into contention.
He’s not without early pace himself, something that is so crucial in York sprints, and at 14/1 and above he looks a fair price getting the five places (Sky Bet are paying seven places if you’re prepared to take a small hit on the price).
The Verdict: Back BERGERAC in the 1.50 York
Preview posted at 1545 BST on 19/08/25
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